Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
359 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Heat indices as of late this afternoon continue around
100 to 105 with values of 108-110 across portions of the FL
Panhandle into southwest GA, where a heat advisory is
in effect until 7 PM this evening.

To limit the risk of heat related illness, drink plenty of
water, stay in air conditioned locations, and limit outdoor
activities. The risk of heat related illness will be greater
for those without air conditioning, especially the elderly,
infants, and pets. Those with health conditions and outdoor
workers are also at greater risk.

Showers and thunderstorms were developing in close proximity
to the FL coast, as the northwest low to mid-level flow pins
the sea breeze further south. As the cold pool associated
with this activity spreads northward, additional development
is expected closer to the I-10 corridor of FL into portions
of southeast AL, prior to dissipating around sunset.

Low temperatures will be above normal in the low to mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...

The mid-level ridge will continue to gradually shift east over the
next couple of days, with shortwaves rotating around its eastern
periphery. West-northwest steering flow will keep the Gulf
seabreeze pinned in north Florida, but the shortwaves could
contribute to higher than normal PoPs elsewhere. The main story
through the weekend will be the continued heat, specifically high
heat indices. Expect Advisory conditions through the weekend,
especially across north Florida.

.LONG TERM [Monday Through Friday]...

The ridge amplitude will dampen as a shortwave moves through the
Northeast next week, though it will generally remain in place
across the Southeast. Shortwave energy will continue to round the
ridge, but will now have a surface front to focus convection
along. Expect a high MCS potential early next week, with a
frontal boundary creeping closer to the Tri-State region by mid-
week. Thus, expect higher than normal PoPs to continue into next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Saturday]

Highest confidence in TS at ECP through 23Z, otherwise VCTS until
around 00Z at DHN, TLH, and VLD where confidence is less and TSRA
remain further from terminals. MVFR vsbys at VLD and possibly TLH
around sunrise again on Saturday. Winds remain west-southwest AOB
10 knots through the period.

&&

.MARINE...

Relatively light winds and low seas are forecast over the next
several days. The main exception will be the diurnal increase in
wind and chop near the coast each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Light transport winds and low mixing heights could lead to patches
of low dispersions across the tri-state area this weekend,
particularly in the FL Panhandle. Otherwise, no hazardous fire
weather conditions are forecast.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Typical rain amounts are forecast over the upcoming week. The
above average rain chances may mean a more widespread coverage of
2+", but flooding is not expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   76  95  75  93  75 /  50  50  20  60  30
Panama City   78  89  79  89  80 /  30  30  20  40  30
Dothan        75  94  75  93  76 /  50  60  20  40  20
Albany        76  96  77  94  77 /  30  40  20  30  20
Valdosta      75  96  75  94  74 /  40  50  20  40  30
Cross City    76  93  77  92  77 /  20  30  20  40  20
Apalachicola  78  90  79  89  79 /  30  30  20  40  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Inland Franklin-
     Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Leon-
     Liberty.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Gulf.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Decatur-Seminole.

AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...LF
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Nguyen
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
306 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

FLZ010-012>014-112-091945-
Coastal Bay FL-Inland Bay FL-Calhoun FL-Inland Gulf FL-Washington FL-
306 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GULF...NORTHEASTERN
BAY...SOUTHWESTERN CALHOUN AND SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN
THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA UNTIL 345 PM EDT/245 PM CDT/...

At 306 PM EDT/206 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 12 miles northeast of Lynn
Haven to near Callaway. Movement was southeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Callaway, Nixon, Bayhead, College Station, Saunders, Bayou George,
Camp Flowers, Overstreet, Gainer Spring, Bennett, Youngstown, Cairo,
Kinard, Broad Branch, Wetappo and Majette.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2999 8537 3001 8537 3002 8539 3001 8539
      3011 8558 3049 8559 3036 8523 2992 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 309DEG 10KT 3038 8552 3016 8552

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
404 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

FLZ034-092045-
Inland Dixie FL-
404 PM EDT Fri Aug 9 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DIXIE COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM EDT...

At 403 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cross City, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cross City, Eugene, Shamrock, Cross City Airport, Old Town and
Fanning Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2956 8295 2954 8298 2952 8297 2952 8298
      2947 8299 2948 8305 2970 8323 2980 8315
      2973 8294 2972 8294 2972 8296 2970 8294
      2970 8296 2964 8296 2963 8297 2958 8295
      2959 8294
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 309DEG 11KT 2971 8313