Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
259 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Southwesterly flow aloft prevails on the western periphery of
mid/upper ridging, with weak southwesterly flow at the surface near
the center of high pressure. A theta-e boundary is noted from west
to east along the FL/AL/GA state lines. The afternoon seabreeze in
the Panhandle is forecast to interact with this boundary in the next
couple of hours and result in scattered to numerous storms around
the I-10 corridor. With some mid-level dry air in place, delta theta-
e values, and subsequently the WMSI, will be elevated today. This
means that the more robust storms that develop will have a good
chance of producing severe wind gusts and possibly some small hail.
Storms will generally drift northeast into southeast Alabama and
extreme southwest GA through the evening. Storms should come to an
end everywhere by 10-11pm EDT.

.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

In the upper levels a ridge will be over the region with possibly a
shortwave moving through tomorrow afternoon. At the surface weak
high pressure will be over the Southeast. Low level flow will be
northerly becoming easterly Thursday. With northerly winds
instability will be lower tomorrow and Thursday. The best chance for
storms will be on Thursday with POPs of 30 to 50 percent. Highs will
be in the lower to mid 90s. Lows will be in the lower 70s.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

In the upper levels a ridge will be over the region. At the surface
weak high pressure will be over the Southeast. Low level flow will
be easterly becoming southerly this weekend. A wet pattern will
return this weekend with POPs of 40 to 50 percent Friday, Saturday
and Sunday. Early next week POPs will be lower around 30 percent.
Highs will be in the low to mid 90s. Lows will be in the low to mid
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

VFR conditions are expected, away from thunderstorms, through the
duration of the TAF. Storms are most likely late this afternoon at
TLH, ECP, and VLD. Should a terminal be impacted by a storm, there's
a higher than usual chance for strong downbursts on the order of 40-
50kts. Storms should come to an end by 02-03z.

&&

.MARINE...

A wet pattern will be in place this weekend. Light to moderate
northerly winds will become easterly Thursday. Seas will be 1 to 2
feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Aside from high dispersion indices, hazardous fire weather
conditions are not expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Local rivers are below action stage and steady. Afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms are expected this week. The
stronger storms with heavier downpours may produce localized
flooding especially ponding on roadways and flooding of low lying
areas. Less than one inch of rain if forecast over the next three
days.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  96  72  93  71 /  20  20  10  50  30
Panama City   77  92  76  90  75 /  20  10  10  50  30
Dothan        71  93  72  94  72 /  40  30  10  30  30
Albany        73  94  73  94  72 /   0  30   0  20  10
Valdosta      73  96  72  94  70 /   0  10  10  40  20
Cross City    73  96  73  93  71 /  10  20  10  40  20
Apalachicola  76  92  76  90  75 /  10  20  10  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday morning for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM...McD
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...McD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...McD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
225 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

FLZ010-012-252000-
Inland Bay FL-Washington FL-
225 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BAY AND SOUTHWESTERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 225 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Vernon. This storm was nearly stationary.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Live Oak, Ebro, Red Head, Holmes Valley, Millers Ferry, Greenhead and
Riverside.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3044 8590 3047 8589 3047 8588 3050 8586
      3051 8588 3053 8589 3054 8588 3056 8588
      3056 8589 3058 8589 3063 8578 3050 8556
      3038 8581 3039 8588 3044 8591
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 326DEG 4KT 3052 8585

42-DVD