Special Weather Statement, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
628 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2019

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Sunday]

Fog and low stratus continue at all sites at this hour, with IFR
to LIFR conditions being observed. Conditions will improve after
sunrise, with VFR conditions expected once again by late
morning/early afternoon. Sct TSRA will affect TLH and VLD within
the next few hours this morning. Additional redevelopment is
possible this afternoon, but confidence in any of this activity
directly affecting terminals remains low at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [231 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A subtle upper level shortwave trough will push into the region
this morning, generating an area of showers and thunderstorms
around 12Z. Expect this activity to push eastward across the
region this morning, exiting by early afternoon. Additional
showers will likely redevelop late this afternoon/early this
evening for several hours before dissipating. Given the early
start to convection today and expected cloud cover, decided to
undercut guidance by several degrees for afternoon highs. Expect
temperatures to generally reach the lower 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Monday]...

Scattered convection from this afternoon will diminish during the
overnight hours. Attention will then focus on the Sunday through
Sunday night period as a stronger shortwave and surface cold front
moves through the area.

All of the available guidance still suggest a marginal to slight
risk of severe storms across the area from Sunday afternoon into
the Sunday night period. The 00z NAM, GFS, and ECMWF all move a
45-55 knot 850 mb jet across the northern and western portions of
the forecast area Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. The
NAM is the strongest of the guidance, and the ECMWF appears
slightly stronger than the GFS. The ECMWF has SBCAPE around 500
j/kg overlaid with 0-1 km helicity over 300 m2/s2 along the
southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia border by Sunday evening.
A squall line will likely move from west to east across the
forecast area during the late Sunday afternoon and overnight
period. While gradual weakening will probably occur as it moves
deeper into the forecast area due to dynamics and instability
gradually decreasing with time, the line may still be severe as it
enters the western and northern portions of the forecast area.
Given the amount of helicity and the forecast hodographs, a couple
of tornadoes can't be ruled out along with the threat of straight
line winds.

.LONG TERM [Monday Night Through Saturday]...

Quiet and cool conditions will prevail behind the weekend frontal
system. A very weak disturbance passes through late Monday night
into Tuesday, but it'll be hard to get anything more than a few
clouds/sprinkles. A stronger push of cooler and drier air arrives
during the day on Tuesday, keeping conditions cool and quiet for
most of the remainder of the week. A light freeze is possible
across the northwest portions of the area on Tuesday night.

.MARINE...

Fair boating conditions are forecast through this evening.
Increasing winds and seas are expected for Sunday and Monday due
to the passage of a cold front. Winds and seas are expected to
remain elevated through mid-week.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Outside of low dispersions across portions of the Florida
Panhandle and Big Bend this afternoon, hazardous fire weather
conditions are not expected this weekend. Expect wetting rains
across portions of the region today and again on Sunday.

.HYDROLOGY...

Through Sunday night, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are
possible across most of the area with the exception of the
southeast big bend, where lesser amounts are expected. Given that
it's been dry recently, widespread flooding is not currently
expected with this system unless expected rainfall amounts
increase. However, locally heavier amounts are possible in a short
period of time with convection, and this could cause localized
flooding of poor drainage areas. The greatest potential for this
to occur is across the northern portions of the area on Sunday and
Sunday night, generally from near Dothan to Albany and northward.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  64  79  59  67 /  60  20  40  80  40
Panama City   73  64  75  55  62 /  50  20  50  80  30
Dothan        73  62  76  48  57 /  30  20  80  90  20
Albany        73  61  77  52  60 /  30  20  70  90  20
Valdosta      73  62  80  60  66 /  60  20  40  80  50
Cross City    76  63  79  63  71 /  50  10  10  70  60
Apalachicola  72  64  72  60  65 /  50  20  40  80  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
455 AM EST SAT MAR 2 2019

ALZ069-FLZ010-011-GAZ155-156-021045-
Houston AL-Jackson FL-Washington FL-Decatur GA-Seminole GA-
455 AM EST SAT MAR 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON...JACKSON...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...SOUTHWESTERN DECATUR AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES
UNTIL 545 AM EST/445 AM CST/...

At 455 AM EST/355 AM CST/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm over Chipley, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cottonwood, Chipley, Donalsonville, Marianna, Chattahoochee, Malone,
Sneads, Cottondale, Grand Ridge, Greenwood, Alford, Iron City,
Campbellton, Bascom, Crosby, Grangeburg, Lovedale, Dellwood,
Donaldsonville A/P and Bahoma.

LAT...LON 3082 8560 3114 8526 3111 8503 3107 8503
      3107 8481 3106 8474 3075 8484 3074 8486
      3071 8485 3061 8514 3061 8517 3060 8517
      3056 8526 3057 8528 3079 8561
TIME...MOT...LOC 0955Z 241DEG 28KT 3076 8550

30-PULLIN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
559 AM EST SAT MAR 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 AM     HAIL             1 NW NETTLE RIDGE       30.49N 85.06W
03/02/2019  E0.75 INCH       CALHOUN            FL   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT.

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
619 AM EST SAT MAR 2 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 AM     HAIL             1 WNW DURHAM            30.47N 85.09W
03/02/2019  E1.00 INCH       CALHOUN            FL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ESTIMATED ON THE ROAD BETWEEN BLOUNTSTOWN
            AND ALTHA.

&&

DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
649 AM EST SAT MAR 2 2019

FLZ016-017-021230-
Gadsden FL-Leon FL-
649 AM EST SAT MAR 2 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GADSDEN AND
SOUTHWESTERN LEON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 AM EST...

At 649 AM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Midway, moving east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Midway, Tallahassee, Tallahassee Comm College, Doak Campbell Stadium,
Springsax Park, Lake Bradford, Lake Talquin, Andrew, Gaither
Community Center, Lake Munson, Fort Braden, Wetumpka, Bloxham,
Innovation Park, Tallahassee Regional A/P and Mission San Luis.

LAT...LON 3037 8467 3038 8467 3039 8465 3039 8467
      3050 8466 3049 8432 3039 8428 3030 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 1149Z 278DEG 20KT 3043 8458

30-PULLIN