Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
644 AM EST Fri Jan 4 2019

.AVIATION...
[Through 12Z Saturday]

IFR and MVFR CIGs will remain this morning as rain moves through
the region. Winds will be gusty today up to 25 knots. Strong winds
are possible as a line of heavy rain moves through. Skies will
scatter out a few hours after the rain passes.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [234 AM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

A strong low pressure system will move through the Southeast today,
forcing a cold front through the Tri-State region. Severe weather is
not anticipated, though the strong wind field with this system will
likely result in gusty winds 20-30 mph in and behind the line. Rain
amounts are not forecast to be too impressive due to the progressive
nature of the front. Expect average amounts on the order of 0.5-
1.0". While high clouds won't completely clear out today, the low
overcast will clear with the passage of the cold front.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

In the upper levels a cut-off low centered over Tennessee will move
out of the Southeast by tomorrow afternoon and a ridge will build
into the region. At the surface a low will be near West Virginia
tonight with wrap around moisture extending to North Florida. By
tomorrow afternoon high pressure will move into the region. POPs
will be near zero this weekend. Clouds will be moving out of the
region by tomorrow afternoon. Highs will be in the 60s. Lows will be
in the lower 40s.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

In the upper levels a ridge may be over the Gulf of Mexico. A trough
will move through the Southeast on Monday night, then a longwave
trough will deepen along the Atlantic Coast midweek. At the surface
high pressure will be over the region until a weak cold front
approaches Monday night. High pressure returns by Tuesday night.
POPs will be very low until Friday night when a more substantial
system is possible. Highs will be in the 60s and lower 70s. Lows
will be in the 40s.

.MARINE...

Southerly winds will increase this morning becoming more westerly
late this morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until
tomorrow morning. Winds will become northwesterly Friday night as a
cold front moves through.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Red Flag conditions are not forecast over the next few days. Dispersion
indices are forecast to be marginally high behind a cold front
this afternoon, but should fall back into the acceptable range by
tomorrow afternoon.

.HYDROLOGY...

A few local rivers remain in minor flood stage at this time. Some
additional rises are possible today and tonight as more rain moves
in. About one inch of rain is expected today with isolated higher
amounts possible. Drier weather is expected this weekend and next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   69  44  62  42  69 / 100   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  47  61  47  66 /  80   0   0   0   0
Dothan        66  43  60  42  66 /  70   0   0   0   0
Albany        67  43  61  42  67 / 100   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      69  44  61  43  67 /  90   0   0   0   0
Cross City    70  48  62  43  69 / 100  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  69  48  61  47  65 / 100  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday morning for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory from 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ this morning to
     midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight for Coastal Bay-Coastal
     Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM...McD
AVIATION...McD
MARINE...McD
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...McD