Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
317 PM EDT Mon Mar 11 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

There remains the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. The latest satellite observations show low
status eroding across the region ahead of the frontal boundary that
is draped across southern Alabama and southern Georgia at this hour.
Mid-level shortwave, evident on WV imagery and on radar continues to
approach from the west. Expect shower and thunderstorm activity to
increase in the next two hours across the region. Sufficient heating
will take place across areas where there are breaks in cloud cover,
destabilizing the atmosphere. 1000+ j/kg of CAPE is expected in the
near storm environment. Given unidirectional shear through the
column and not impressive lapse rates, the main threat associated
with these storms will be damaging wind gusts through this evening.
Storms will diminish after sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

A surface frontal boundary will move south of the forecast area on
Tuesday morning with slightly drier air spreading over the area.
Aloft, model guidance shows that through the short term period a
ridge of high pressure will build over the Eastern Gulf and into
the Western Atlantic. This will keep the weather relatively
tranquil through Wednesday. Initially on Tuesday, some low
cloudiness will give way to mostly sunny skies with temperatures
warming to near 80. By Wednesday, the surface flow will pick up
more of a southerly component, which suggests an increasing
fog/stratus threat to start the day, which could persist into the
afternoon hours limiting high temperatures to only the upper 70s
to near 80.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

The ridging over the Florida Peninsula and the Western Atlantic
will hold in place into Friday, which will force most of the
energy with an approaching storm system to lift well to the north
of the region across the Great Lakes. As a result, the next
frontal system to affect our region on Friday should be fairly
weak, and while most areas will see some rainfall, amounts should
be fairly light. With little upper level forcing, the frontal
system in both the GFS and Euro stall just south of the forecast
area. A trailing southern stream shortwave looks to provide a
chance for rain on Saturday before the ridge over the Western
Atlantic flattens and a broader scale Eastern CONUS trough
develops, shifting any remaining frontal zone across the northern
Gulf, well to the south. Based on the 12z guidance set, it looks
that by the end of the period, much of the region (if not all)
should be under dry northwesterly flow with temperatures at or
slightly below climo for mid March.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Tuesday] LIFR to IFR conditions continue at all TAF
sites except ABY and VLD, where MVFR conditions are observed at
this hour. Gradual improvements to MVFR conditions can be expected
over the next several hours. TSRA is expected to develop around
20Z and push across portions of the area, affecting most
terminals. Reductions in vsby and CIGs, as well as gusty winds can
be expected from this activity. Low CIGs will settle in again
tonight, with IFR conditions possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Areas of dense fog will develop over the marine area and persist
into the late morning hours on Tuesday. Aside from the fog
concerns, winds will remain fairly light and shift to an offshore
direction late tonight and into Tuesday morning. Winds will
increase to cautionary levels late Tuesday night as winds shift to
east and then southeasterly. A period of advisory level winds is
possible ahead of an approaching storm system Wednesday through
Thursday, especially west of Apalachicola. The next front will
pass through the marine area on Friday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible
tonight with dry weather returning for Tuesday through Wednesday.
RH values will drop but remain above 40% the next few days. Red
Flag conditions are not expected to be met.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall over the next few days is expected to be generally an
inch or less across the area. As a result, there are no flood
concerns. With upstream rainfall across Northern Georgia also
being fairly light, there are no anticipated flood concerns on the
ACF basin through the week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   62  80  58  80  63 /  50   0   0   0   0
Panama City   61  75  60  75  65 /  50   0   0   0   0
Dothan        55  76  57  79  64 /  20   0   0   0   0
Albany        55  75  54  78  60 /  40   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      60  77  54  79  60 /  60   0   0   0   0
Cross City    64  79  57  83  61 /  30   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  62  73  61  73  65 /  30   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EDT /midnight CDT/ Tuesday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory from 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening to 1 PM
     EDT /noon CDT/ Tuesday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters
     From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to
     Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach
     to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...LN
HYDROLOGY...Godsey

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
454 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2019

GAZ145-157-112130-
Mitchell GA-Grady GA-
454 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN GRADY AND SOUTHERN
MITCHELL COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 454 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles west of Pelham, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pelham, Camilla, Akridge, Spence, Elpino, Hopeful, Branchville and
Capel.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3118 8408 3096 8416 3104 8438 3108 8438
      3108 8444 3119 8442
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 295DEG 22KT 3109 8438

42-DVD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
504 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2019

GAZ127-128-112130-
Worth GA-Turner GA-
504 PM EDT MON MAR 11 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TURNER AND NORTH CENTRAL WORTH
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 504 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Arabi, or 9 miles northwest of Ashburn, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ashburn, Worth, Sycamore, Rebecca, Amboy, Turner Co Airport, Dakota
and Sibley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3185 8348 3176 8345 3174 8347 3160 8355
      3176 8393 3184 8387 3183 8385 3182 8385
      3183 8384 3181 8383 3180 8380 3180 8361
      3185 8361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2104Z 286DEG 23KT 3180 8378

42-DVD