Severe Thunderstorm Warning 204, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
258 PM EDT Wed Aug 14 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the area through the early evening hours as a frontal boundary moves
slowly southward into the area. Modifying the 12z KTAE sounding for
an afternoon T/Td of 96/75 yields SBCAPE values over 4000 j/kg this
afternoon. In addition, there is some mid-level dry air present in
the sounding, and DCAPE values are rather high just under 1200 j/kg.
Thus, some wet microbursts are possible this afternoon, and the SPC
has a large portion of the area outlooked for a marginal risk of
severe weather for wind this afternoon. Overall, the steering flow
remains weak and precipitable water values are high near 2 inches,
so localized pockets of heavy rain are also likely with the storms
this afternoon. The WPC has outlooked the area for a marginal risk
of excessive rainfall to account for this threat. Finally, it will
remain dangerously hot this afternoon with heat index values in the
108-112 range with a heat advisory remaining in effect for the
entire area.

.SHORT TERM [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

In the upper levels a weak trough will be over the Southeast. At the
surface a weak low will be near the Carolinas and a stationary
boundary will linger over SE Alabama and SW Georgia. Low level flow
will be southwesterly, south of the boundary. A wet pattern will be
in place with widespread showers and thunderstorms. Development may
start earlier in the day and last longer into the evening. The best
chance for rain will be in the afternoon and evening hours with POPs
of 50 to 80 percent for most locations. PWAT values will be 2.4 to
2.6 inches in the southern half of the region and 2 inches or less
in the northern half of the region as a stationary boundary
separates the region. With moderate instability a few strong to
severe storms will be possible. Highs will be in the upper 80s and
lower 90s depending on how early thunderstorms develop. Lows will be
in the lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

In the upper levels a weak trough will be over the region. At the
surface the weak stationary boundary over the region will dissipate
by Sunday. A wet pattern will be in place through the weekend with
POPs of 50 to 70 percent. Early next week POPs will remain high
around 50 to 60 percent. Highs will be in the upper 80s and lower
90s. Lows will be in the lower 70s.&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Thursday]

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected
across the area through the early evening hours before gradually
diminishing overnight. Outside of storms, mainly VFR conditions
are expected to prevail.

&&

.MARINE...

Southwesterly winds will be less than 15 knots through the weekend.
A wet pattern will be in place through through early next week. Seas
will be low around 2 to 3 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A wet pattern over the next couple of days will inhibit hazardous
fire weather conditions, except for low dispersions outside of the
southeast FL Big Bend on Thursday. A drying trend will begin to
take hold northwest of the Flint River into southeast portions of
AL on Friday. Heat indices will continue to be elevated on Thursday,
but will begin to return closer to seasonal levels on Friday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Local rivers are below action stage. A wet pattern will be in place
through early next week. 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected with 4 to
7 inches possible along the Eastern Big Bend Counties (Dixie, Taylor
and Lafayette) through this weekend. Flooding of low lying areas and
ponding on roadways will be likely where higher rainfall totals are
forecast and with the stronger storms. Slow moving storms may
produce some localized flooding elsewhere.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   76  92  73  87  73 /  50  70  40  80  50
Panama City   78  88  76  88  76 /  50  70  50  60  60
Dothan        74  91  72  93  71 /  50  50  20  30  20
Albany        75  91  74  92  73 /  50  60  30  40  30
Valdosta      76  90  73  88  71 /  50  80  30  60  40
Cross City    77  89  75  85  74 /  50  70  60  60  60
Apalachicola  79  88  76  87  76 /  50  70  60  70  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT /6 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-
     South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM EDT this evening for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM...McD
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...McD
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...McD

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