Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
428 PM EDT Tue Jul 9 2019

.NEAR AND SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday Night]...

Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue across the tri-state
region through the early evening hours, influenced by the elongated
upper low over the region. The combination of strong daytime heating
and PWATs exceeding 2 inches across the region will yield widespread
storm coverage through the early to mid-evening hours before storms
dissipate. A brief lull in storms is expected overnight with mostly
cloudy skies keeping temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

The aforementioned area of low pressure will propagate into the
Gulf of Mexico overnight. The normal land-breeze circulating back
out to the Gulf of Mexico will provide favorable convergence for
thunderstorm development around the low pressure center. This,
coupled with anonymously warm Gulf of Mexico temperatures will
likely yield in the development of this system into a tropical
depression or storm in the north central Gulf of Mexico during the
day Wednesday. Hi-res model guidance has been consistent in
indicating robust convective development south of the low center
over the Gulf of Mexico. increased southerly flow over land will
enhance the sea-breeze on Wednesday, yielding bands of efficient
rainfall producing showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Storms will have decent forward motions, cutting down on rainfall
totals across the area.

The timing of a mid-level shortwave trough pushing across the lower
and mid-Mississippi Valley along with the position of the Bermuda
High to the east and retreating ridge over the southwest to the east
will be key factors in the eventual track of this system into the
long term.

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Operational model guidance continues to align in good agreement in
the general timing of the aforementioned mid-level shortwave
pushing into the southeast late Thursday into Friday. This,
coupled with the retreating high over the Southwest and the
influence of the Bermuda High to the east will help to steer the
system further west. Guidance is indicating this system moving
westward and impacting the southern Louisiana coast by the early
part of the weekend. While there is still some uncertainty in the
forecast regarding the finer details of exactly where this system
will track, confidence has increased in associated impacts
generally remaining to the west of the area, with more seasonable
rain chances resuming across the tri-state area over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

Patchy MVFR cigs this afternoon along with scattered
thunderstorms. Overnight, patchy MVFR vsbys possible near TLH and
VLD, which should clear out by 15Z when we'll begin to see
scattered coverage of storms again near ECP, TLH, and VLD. Winds
will generally be light, but may be gustier during storms directly
affecting terminals.

&&

.MARINE...

Conditions will deteriorate on Wednesday and winds increase out of
the south. As a result, waves will also increase with advisory
conditions possible by Thursday or Thursday night. Widespread
heavy rain, thunderstorms and waterspouts will all be possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Patchy fog is possible during the early to mid-morning hours
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Little change in the expected rainfall amount forecast this
afternoon associated with the developing system. General rainfall
amounts will range from 1 to 3 inches across the Big Bend of
Florida, with 1 to 2 inches into southern Georgia and southeastern
Alabama. Higher amounts, generally on the order of 2 to 4 inches
will be possible along the Florida Panhandle through Sunday.
Isolated higher amounts are possible given the rainfall rates that
storms will be capable of. The highest rainfall amounts will be
realized in any bands of heavy rain that develop and move across an
area. Flooding concerns at this time will be limited to urban and
poor drainage areas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  91  74  89  74 /  40  80  50  70  40
Panama City   78  88  78  86  78 /  60  70  50  70  50
Dothan        75  93  74  90  74 /  30  80  20  70  20
Albany        76  92  75  90  74 /  20  80  30  70  20
Valdosta      73  89  73  89  72 /  30  80  30  60  20
Cross City    75  88  74  89  74 /  40  80  50  70  50
Apalachicola  77  88  77  86  77 /  60  70  60  80  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Pullin
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...Nguyen
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Pullin

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