Severe Thunderstorm Warning 180, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
743 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

.UPDATE...

Scattered convection will subside shortly after sunset. No
significant changes were made to the forecast for tonight during
the evening update.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Tuesday]

Convection is currently scattered going into the evening hours.
Activity will subside shortly after sunset. For the most part, VFR
conditions are expected outside of thunderstorms. Patchy fog is
possible tonight. Showers and thunderstorms will be scattered again
tomorrow afternoon and evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [336 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A weak surface trough continues to aid in the initiation of showers
and thunderstorms basically across the area outside of SE AL. The
storms along the Big Bend coast are starting to push out outflows so
thunderstorm coverage will start to spread north. Additional
outflows are moving into SE AL at this time and should initiate
some storms in the next hour. It looks like a few storms may
linger overnight and should generally dissipate by midnight. Lows
will be in the low to mid 70s.

.SHORT TERM [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The upper low/vort max that is over northern Alabama will move south
through Alabama on Monday and be somewhere over our CWA by the
afternoon. This, combined with the PW values over 2 inches, will
once again initiate scattered to numerous storms. Right now the
highest rainfall amounts are east of Tallahassee but if the low
tracks farther west, the highest rainfall could shift west as
well. Similar conditions exist for Tuesday with the eventual
location of the low (Big Bend for GFS but offshore Apalachicola
for the ECMWF) will impact if the highest rainfall is farther east
or more widespread. Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the lower
90 east and mid 90s west. Heat indices Monday will be 102-105 and
103-108 Tuesday. It's likely a few isolated locations each day
will reach heat advisory, with Tuesday seeing a higher likelihood.
Both days ultimately depend on cloud cover and rainfall.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The long term is really the interesting period this week and
unfortunately, we're seeing a direct North American (GFS, CMC,
NAM) and European (ECMWF, UKMET) split in the models in regards
to the evolution of the upper vort max and potential tropical
development in the Gulf. The GFS brings it south, offshore,
Wednesday night and brings it back straight north into the Big
Bend of FL and GA Friday night. The ECMWF also has it offshore by
Wednesday but tracks it due West, moving into west TX or LA. This
was a huge shift west on the 12z ECMWF to note (good news for us)
but it has been the most consistent in developing the system so
NHC/WPC have been leaning that way. Impacts here locally still are
heavy rainfall and deteriorating marine conditions, even Mon/Tues
could have heavy rainfall as it moves south. Neither system looks
to have wind impacts, although if the system strengthens, either
side of the CWA could have stronger winds depending on the model.
For now, strongest winds look offshore. If the GFS is correct, the
eastern half will have more rain than the general 4-7 inches
predicted right now. The ECMWF, less rain. The differences in the
models relate to the wind shear and direction at the upper levels
as the system moves over the open waters with the ECMWF being more
favorable for development. At this time, we will have to continue
to wait to see how it develops over the next few days for any
more details.

.MARINE...

West northwest winds around 10 to 15 knots continue at least
through Tuesday night with scattered showers and thunderstorms
each day. An upper low then moves offshore over the waters with
the potential for development into a tropical system. For now,
the forecast calls for winds to increase to 20 knots with seas up
to 9 feet but that could go higher depending on where the system
develops.

.FIRE WEATHER...

Humid conditions will preclude any red flag concerns for the
foreseeable future. Regular wetting rains are expected to keep fuels
quite moist. Patchy fog is possible again tonight.

.HYDROLOGY...

A somewhat typical scattering of storms is expected through early
next week with a normal threat for isolated flooding in urban
areas where slow moving could result in quick rainfall
accumulations. Beginning mid-week, the forecast will depend on the
evolution of an area of low pressure forecast to enter the
northeast Gulf. Widespread average amounts on the order of 4-7
inches are possible along the immediate coast, with isolated
higher amounts possible. These numbers are subject to change
considerably in both the upward or downward direction. Needless to
say, the flood threat becomes more elevated as we head towards
the end of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  94  75  94  76 /  40  50  30  60  40
Panama City   78  91  79  91  79 /  50  30  30  40  40
Dothan        74  95  75  96  76 /  40  40  30  40  20
Albany        75  92  76  93  76 /  60  60  40  50  30
Valdosta      74  92  75  92  75 /  30  60  40  70  40
Cross City    76  92  77  90  76 /  50  50  40  60  40
Apalachicola  79  92  79  91  78 /  30  30  30  50  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...McD
NEAR TERM...LN
SHORT TERM...LN
LONG TERM...LN
AVIATION...McD
MARINE...LN
FIRE WEATHER...Wool
HYDROLOGY...LN

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
519 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019

ALZ065-072315-
Coffee AL-
519 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR COFFEE COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 518 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brantley, or 13 miles south of Luverne, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elba, Enterprise, Fort Rucker, New Brockton, Lee, Pine Level, Mixons
Crossroads, Curtis, Carl Folsom A/p, Turner Crossroads, Lowry Mill,
Camp Humming Hills, Clintonville, Wise Mill, Roeton, Camp Alaflo Bsa,
Clowers Crossroads, Arcus, Enterprise Municipal A/P and Woodland
Grove Church.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3153 8619 3153 8616 3154 8616 3154 8614
      3162 8615 3161 8580 3123 8584 3137 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 282DEG 27KT 3152 8629

18-WOOL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
526 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019

FLZ007-008-108-072330-
Central Walton FL-South Walton FL-North Walton FL-
526 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL WALTON COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM CDT...

At 526 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Eglin Air Force Base, or 10 miles west of De Funiak Springs, moving
south at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eglin Air Force Base, Freeport, Portland, Pleasant Ridge, Alpine
Heights, New Home and Mossy Head.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3075 8639 3076 8618 3051 8612 3050 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 358DEG 7KT 3069 8629

18-WOOL