Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
327 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Widespread/numerous showers ongoing across the majority of the
forecast area this afternoon will continue through at least the rest
of the afternoon. Activity will begin to diminish this evening as
instability wanes and we lose diurnal heating. Drier air aloft to
the west of a Albany/Panama-City line will likely keep these regions
mostly dry through tonight.

Low temperatures tonight will bottom out in the mid 70s, even warmer
temperatures around 80 expected along the coasts.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

A brief reprieve in shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected for
the region on Sunday. A mid-level shortwave trough currently
centered over the Tennessee Valley will usher in slightly drier air,
lowering thunderstorm coverage across the region. High temperatures
will rise into the mid 90s region-wide. Boundary layer moisture will
remain high, which will yield miserable conditions as heat indicies
will rise above 105F in many locations. Some locations will likely
see heat advisory conditions by Sunday afternoon with indicies
approaching 110F. Seasonable coverage of showers and storms will
return Monday and Tuesday as the aforementioned weak trough slides
across the region toward the northern Gulf of Mexico.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

A wet pattern is shaping up for the long term period, as widespread
storm coverage and heavy rain will be associated with an area of low
pressure associated with the aforementioned trough expected to
develop in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. While confidence is high
regarding this pattern change, the challenge remains in
forecasting the extent of the development of the low regarding
both strength and eventual location. The National Hurricane Center
has indicated a low chance (20%) for this low to become a tropical
system later this week. Regardless of whether this does or not,
the main threat associated with this system will likely be heavy
rainfall from Wednesday night through the first half of next
weekend. Be sure to monitor the latest forecast updates through
the week!

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Sunday]

Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected across the area
through at least 00z tonight with the best coverage east and south
of KDHN. MVFR/VFR conditions expected outside thunderstorms with
MVFR/IFR conditions within the stronger storms. Storm coverage
reduces later this evening and overnight with some low level
cigs/vis bringing MVFR/IFR cigs possible around daybreak. VFR
conditions return mid-morning on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will exist across the
coastal waters area through mid-week. Frequent lightning, gusty
winds and waterspouts will be threats associated with this
activity. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will remain around 15kts
or less with seas up to 2 feet through Wednesday. From Wednesday
night through next weekend, an area of low pressure is expected to
develop in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, yielding increasing
winds and seas to at least cautionary, if not advisory levels by
Thursday evening. Stay tuned for the latest forecast updates as
this system evolves this week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Humid conditions will preclude any red flag concerns for the
foreseeable future. High dispersion indices above 75 will be
possible across inland portions of the Florida Panhandle Sunday
and Monday afternoons.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Precipitation coverage will be near seasonal levels through
Tuesday, then increase to above average by Wednesday, when
the potential for heavy rainfall increases. Heavier rainfall
amounts should favor the coastal areas and may spread inland
along a trough axis, but it's too early for more specifics.
The main impact will be localized, poor drainage flooding.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  95  74  94  74 /  40  40  40  60  50
Panama City   80  91  79  90  79 /  20  30  40  50  50
Dothan        75  96  74  94  75 /  20  50  40  60  40
Albany        75  95  75  93  75 /  20  50  40  60  40
Valdosta      72  93  73  92  73 /  40  40  30  60  40
Cross City    74  90  76  91  75 /  40  50  40  60  50
Apalachicola  78  93  78  91  78 /  20  40  40  50  60

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Central Walton-
     Holmes-North Walton-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva.

GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...Dobbs
SHORT TERM...Pullin
LONG TERM...Pullin
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Pullin
FIRE WEATHER...Wool
HYDROLOGY...LF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
325 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

FLZ013-026-062000-
Liberty FL-Calhoun FL-
325 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN THE
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA AND NORTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTIES IN BIG BEND OF
FLORIDA UNTIL 400 PM EDT/300 PM CDT/...

At 325 PM EDT/225 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm over Blountstown, moving south at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Blountstown, Orange, Bristol, Red Oak, Abe Springs, Sharpstown,
Chipola, Red Hill, Marysville, Scotts Ferry, Kennys Mill, Nettle
Ridge, Estiffanulga, Woods, Blountstown Airport, Hugh Creek and
Durham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3053 8518 3053 8495 3027 8483 3021 8512
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 344DEG 18KT 3044 8503

13-LN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
337 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     LIGHTNING        2 NW TALLAHASSEE MALL   30.49N 84.32W
07/06/2019                   LEON               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LEON COUNTY EMA REPORTS A HOUSE FIRE CAUSED
            BY A LIGHTNING STRIKE. FIRE DEPT ON THE
            SCENE.

&&

JP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
338 PM EDT SAT JUL 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     LIGHTNING        1 SSE LAKE MUNSON       30.36N 84.31W
07/06/2019                   LEON               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LEON COUNTY EMA REPORTS A HOUSE FIRE CAUSED
            BY A LIGHTNING STRIKE. FIRE DEPT ON THE
            SCENE.

&&

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
238 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019

FLZ011-062015-
Jackson FL-
238 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY UNTIL 315
PM CDT...

At 238 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Marianna, moving south at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marianna, Grand Ridge, Greenwood, Bascom, Blue Spring, Union City,
Sink Creek, Dellwood, Star, Two Egg, Simsville, Cypress, Alliance,
Chipola Terrace and Marianna Municipal A/P.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3094 8513 3066 8492 3060 8510 3061 8517
      3058 8517 3057 8522 3093 8531
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 344DEG 49KT 3079 8516

13-LN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
600 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

GAZ130-131-062245-
Irwin GA-Ben Hill GA-
600 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR IRWIN AND SOUTHEASTERN BEN HILL
COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 600 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ocilla, moving west at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ocilla, Fitzgerald, Mystic, Irwinville, Osierfield, Fitzgerald
Municipal A/P, Wray, Pinetta and Ashton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3162 8304 3161 8305 3161 8306 3156 8306
      3152 8308 3147 8332 3148 8334 3171 8345
      3171 8305 3163 8304
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 083DEG 14KT 3161 8314

18-WOOL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
526 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019

FLZ008-108-062315-
Central Walton FL-South Walton FL-
526 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WALTON COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM CDT...

At 526 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Eglin Air Force Base, or 12 miles south of De
Funiak Springs, moving south at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Santa Rosa Beach, Eglin Air Force Base, Freeport, Portland, Villa
Tasso, Port Washington, Blue Mountain Beach, Rock Hill, Miramar
Beach, Eucheeanna, Pleasant Ridge, Gulf Pines, New Home, Bunker,
Grayton Beach, Sandestin and Four Mile Village.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3038 8633 3042 8631 3040 8629 3040 8623
      3043 8626 3043 8625 3038 8616 3039 8611
      3044 8616 3047 8613 3046 8619 3050 8620
      3048 8622 3046 8639 3071 8638 3068 8598
      3029 8600 3038 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 2226Z 002DEG 11KT 3054 8613

18-WOOL