Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
312 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Current model guidance suggests storm coverage should decrease in
coverage across SE Alabama and SW Georgia by 3z.  The current
environment is favorable for some storms to produce strong wind
gusts and small hail.  Model guidance is hinting at mid to low level
dry air behind the approaching shortwave trough aiding in producing
a broad region of greater than 1500 J/kg of DCAPE, which will
enhance any strong downbursts produced by these storms later in the
evening. ECAMS are suggesting that the storms will generally remain
multicellular and sag south towards the Florida line before
dissipating as forcing decreases into the evening hours. Flooding
concerns remain low as storm motion will likely be progressive
through the region. If the line of storms does maintain itself into
Florida, the potential for flooding will be higher as storm motion
in this region will be more favorable for training storms.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

Deep layer ridging will build back in to end the week and will
prevail through the weekend. This will result in more seasonable
rain chances, possibly even lower than normal as a pocket of dry
air rotates out of the Gulf this weekend. While there won't be as
much rain, southwesterly flow will pair with highs in the middle
90s to yield heat indices over 105 for the next couple of
afternoons.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

While PoPs will still be near or just below normal Sunday and
Monday, the greatest chances will be east of a line from Albany
through Perry as weak lee troughing may tap into an upper level
wave and result in convection drifting into this region late
afternoon/evening. That same upper level wave will then linger
over the Southeast through the remainder of the week resulting in
higher than normal rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Friday]

A developing line of thunderstorms across central Alabama and
Georgia associated with an approaching shortwave trough will be
sagging south across our northern area late this afternoon and
into the evening. So far model guidance has this only impacting
DHN, ABY, and VLD sites as it progresses south and eastward. Gusty
winds and small hail will be possible with these storms. CAMS are
also suggesting that MVFR level cigs will develop across these
same three sites in the early morning hours around 0900-1200 UTC.

&&

.MARINE...

Borderline Advisory conditions are forecast through this evening,
with a decreasing trend expected through the weekend. Showers and
storms will become less and less likely through the weekend as
well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not forecast over the next
few days, though a drying trend is expected.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall amounts over the next few days will be typical for the
summertime and don't trigger any flooding concerns. Around mid-
week next week rain chances will increase again with the potential
for a couple of inches of widespread average rain amounts.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   75  93  75  94  75 /  30  30  10  20  20
Panama City   79  88  80  89  78 /  30  20   0  10  10
Dothan        74  93  76  93  75 /  40  20  10  20  20
Albany        76  93  76  93  76 /  50  10  10  30  30
Valdosta      74  93  75  94  76 /  30  30  10  20  20
Cross City    76  90  77  91  75 /  20  20  10  10  20
Apalachicola  78  89  79  90  78 /  20  20   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Friday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Bunker
SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
AVIATION...Bunker
MARINE...Harrigan
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Harrigan

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
320 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

ALZ067-202045-
Henry AL-
320 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HENRY COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM CDT...

At 320 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Tyler Crossroads, or near Clio, moving east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Abbeville, Murphy Station, Graball, Screamer, Edwin, Scottsboro
Crossroads, Lawrenceville and Abbeville Municipal A/P.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southeastern Alabama.

LAT...LON 3174 8515 3151 8522 3159 8542 3171 8542
      3170 8522 3171 8521 3174 8521
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 285DEG 23KT 3169 8552

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
338 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

ALZ065-066-202130-
Dale AL-Coffee AL-
338 PM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DALE AND NORTHERN
COFFEE COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM CDT...

At 338 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Brantley, or 9 miles northwest of Elba, moving east at
30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elba, Fort Rucker, Lee, Pine Level, Mixons Crossroads, Curtis, Carl
Folsom A/p, Lowry Mill, Camp Humming Hills, Wise Mill, Roeton,
Clowers Crossroads, Arcus, Hwy 231 Pea River Bridge, Woodland Grove
Church, Jack, Java, Chestnut Grove, Greater Salem Church and
Victoria.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
southeastern Alabama.

LAT...LON 3153 8619 3154 8614 3161 8614 3162 8611
      3162 8575 3147 8570 3138 8620
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 253DEG 26KT 3148 8623

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