Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
646 PM EST Sat Jan 19 2019

.AVIATION...
[Through 00Z Monday]

Light rain is moving across most of the terminals with widespread
MVFR cigs outside of VLD where conditions are VFR at present. A
line of thunderstorms moving into DHN and ECP as of 23-00Z will
cross the remainder of the terminals through 07Z. Expect at least
MVFR with brief IFR or even LIFR in the heaviest rain as this
activity moves through. Southerly winds gusting in excess of 25
kt along and ahead of this line. Once the line moves through, a
return to MVFR cigs and winds veering to the northwest, gusting
up to 25 kt through Saturday afternoon. MVFR cigs should lift
around 15Z with VFR thereafter.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [337 PM EST]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The main focus will be on a squall line entering and sweeping from
west to east across the local region later this afternoon and
tonight. SPC continues to show a slight risk for severe weather
mainly along and west of an Albany to Tallahassee line with a
marginal risk elsewhere. While scattered showers have developed
ahead of the squall line, there has also been several breaks in the
cloud cover helping to further destabilize the atmosphere. A tornado
watch may be needed later afternoon or evening for at least a
portion of our CWA but will need to continue to monitor the line
and its evolution.

Behind the squall line we will see the passage of a strong cold
front with a much colder and drier airmass quickly filtering into
the area. It will also remain breezy overnight. This in combination
with extensive low level cloudiness may help keep temperatures from
dropping as low as previously forecast. Lows will range from near 40
northwest to around 50 across the southeast Big Bend.

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

Will see a short break in precipitation for the short term as high
pressure builds across the eastern CONUS. With dry conditions in the
short term, the focus turns to the temperatures as the northwest
flow behind the cold front ushers in colder conditions. Highs Sunday
will range from the mid 40s across parts of southeast Alabama to the
the lower 50s across the eastern Florida Big Bend. With gusty winds
though, temperatures will feel like the 30s and 40s though. Thus, if
you are planning on spending time outside on Sunday, make sure you
bundle up! Highs on Monday will be in the 50s, but won't feel quite
as cold with weaker winds. Lows Monday morning are expected to be
the coldest over the next few days with most areas below freezing.
As the low level winds veer to the southeast, temperatures will be
slightly warmer Tuesday morning with lows in the mid 30s to lower
40s.

.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

As the surface high moves east into the Atlantic, low level winds
will become southerly, with Gulf moisture returning to the CWA and
temperatures beginning to increase. Isentropic based showers will
allow for the return of low end rain chances to the forecast on
Tuesday. As a trough deepens over the Rockies Tuesday into
Wednesday, another front will push eastward with a low developing
along the southern end of the front and the system bringing high
rain chances back to the CWA Wednesday and Thursday. There's enough
instability for the mention of thunder with the system, however the
timing of this will have to be refined as the event nears. Behind
this system, PoPs will be limited into the first half of the
weekend.

.MARINE...

Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the marine area this
evening and tonight. Winds and seas will continue to increase
tonight with Gale force gusts expected this evening through much
of tomorrow. Will likely need a Small Craft advisory for a portion
of Sunday night as winds and seas weaken. Expect an increase in
winds and seas mid week as the next front moves through the area.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will pass through tonight bringing rain to the
area this afternoon into tonight. Winds have increased today
and will remain elevated through tomorrow. Despite this, RH
values remain above critical thresholds and thus Red Flag
conditions are not expected.

.HYDROLOGY...

Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the area this afternoon
into tonight with around 3/4" or less of rain expected through
tonight. While a few rivers are already in minor flood or action
stage, these should not cause any significant impacts. Another
front will bring additional rainfall mid to late week with around
one to two inches of rain which will cause some rises on area
rivers.

With the strong southerly winds ahead of the front, water levels
will be elevated along the coast tonight, particularly in
Apalachee Bay. Inundation along the coast of 1 to 2.5 feet is
possible. This is expected to align timewise with high tide
overnight and thus have issued a coastal flood advisory for
tonight from Franklin County east to Dixie County.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   47  51  31  56  37 / 100   0   0   0   0
Panama City   44  50  34  54  42 /  70   0   0   0   0
Dothan        41  47  29  52  34 /  70   0   0   0   0
Albany        44  49  30  52  33 / 100   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      48  51  31  54  36 /  90  10   0   0   0
Cross City    52  54  32  58  38 /  90  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  48  52  34  55  44 /  90   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Sunday for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-South Walton.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for Coastal Dixie-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ Sunday for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST Sunday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal
     Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to
     Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach
     to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Fieux
LONG TERM...Fieux
AVIATION...LF
MARINE...Fieux
FIRE WEATHER...Fieux
HYDROLOGY...Fieux

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
631 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SW MARL               31.07N 86.02W
01/19/2019                   GENEVA             AL   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN ACROSS COUNTY ROAD 16 WEST.
            A CAR RAN INTO IT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
640 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0612 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 SE GULF RESORT BEACH  30.21N 85.88W
01/19/2019  M44 MPH          GMZ750             FL   MESONET

            BUOY STATION PCBF1, 1 SE GULF RESORT BEACH.

&&

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
720 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW MABSON            31.46N 85.59W
01/19/2019                   DALE               AL   911 CALL CENTER

            LARGE TREE DOWN ACROSS THE ROAD.

&&

EB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
724 PM EST SAT JAN 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW CALLAWAY           30.15N 85.59W
01/19/2019                   BAY                FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TELEPHONE POLLS DOWN.

&&

EB