Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
247 PM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Friday]...
A squall line west of the area will continue to move eastward
through the evening and overnight hours ahead of a cold front. While
instability is not overly high ahead of the line (SBCAPE generally
under 1000 j/kg), the deep layer shear is fairly strong for this
time of year over 50 knots. In addition, while low level shear
magnitudes are not particularly high, there is decent curvature in
the wind profile in the low levels on the 12z NAM soundings. Thus,
there is still a marginal to slight risk of severe storms this
evening and overnight across portions of the tri-state area with the
greatest threat across the Florida panhandle. Damaging straight line
wind is the primary threat, but a brief tornado or two cannot be
ruled out along the line either. The line will quickly exit the area
Friday morning with clearing skies and drier air behind it.

.SHORT TERM [Friday Night Through Saturday Night]...
Upper trough responsible for pushing the cold front through the
region will lift out quickly to the northeast late Friday. Largely
zonal flow will take its place through Saturday with dry
conditions expected. Airmass behind the front is not a whole lot
cooler than in front, so temperatures will remain mild on
Saturday. Expect to start the day in the lower to mid 50s before
rising to the lower to mid 80s in the afternoon.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...
Upper ridge is forecast to build over the Southeastern states by
early next week. This will keep the weather dry and warm. May see
some 90 degree high temperatures creep into the area by Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 18Z Friday]
Conditions will gradually deteriorate this evening as a squall
line approaches and moves through the area. TSRA with gusty winds
are expected as the line moves through, followed by gradually
clearing skies behind the line during the morning hours on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will increase to Exercise Caution levels overnight as a
front crosses the coastal waters. Winds could locally be much
higher in and near the showers and thunderstorms. Conditions will
improve into Saturday, with light winds and low seas expected
through early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Rain is expected tonight. Much drier air will move into the region
by Saturday. Relative humidity values will be in the 40 percent
range tomorrow and in the 20-35 percent range on Saturday. Red Flag
conditions are not expected since winds will be light Saturday. High
dispersions over 75 are expected tomorrow.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Apalachicola River near Blountstown continues to slowly fall.
Elsewhere, rivers and streams are generally steady or falling.
Rainfall amounts tonight into Friday will range from less than
half an inch in the north to around 1.5 inches along the coast.
These amounts may cause some temporary rises in the smaller
basins, but significant rises are not expected.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or
tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   64  82  53  84  51 /  90  10   0   0   0
Panama City   65  79  57  76  58 / 100   0   0   0   0
Dothan        63  78  52  80  53 /  90   0   0   0   0
Albany        65  80  54  81  54 /  80  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      64  82  53  83  53 /  90  30   0   0   0
Cross City    65  82  54  83  55 /  90  50   0   0   0
Apalachicola  66  80  57  76  57 /  90  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Barry
HYDROLOGY...Camp