Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Tallahassee, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
312 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The cold front is moving through MS and Southern LA at this time (12
AM EDT). A deep trough over the Southeast is fueling strong to
severe thunderstorms. The leading line of storms has fizzled out but
more storms are developing in Southern AL/MS. These storms will
likely move through the region late tonight and into the morning
hours. The atmosphere is still favorable for these storms to
intensify. Instability is elevated at 1000 to 2500 J/KG in Southern
AL and the FL Panhandle. 0 to 6 KM wind shear is impressive around
60 knots in the FL Panhandle and Southern AL. 0 to 1 KM wind shear
is even more impressive at 30 to 40 knots over Southern AL,
Northwest FL and Southwest GA. That means the environment is
favorable for tornado development.

A squall line will likely move through late tonight into the morning
hours. Widespread damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph will be possible
as storms move through. There will likely be a few tornadoes
embedded in the line of storms. Timing for this line looks like
around 3 to 7 AM for the FL Panhandle and Southeast AL Counties, 5
to 10 AM for Tallahassee/Albany area and adjacent counties and 8 to
noon for easternmost counties like Valdosta area and Eastern Big
Bend Florida.

The strong to severe storms should be out of the region around noon.
Some rain or showers may continue in the afternoon. Highs will be in
the mid 60s to the mid 70s.

A Wind Advisory is in effect today with strong westerly winds expected
behind the cold front. Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible
mainly this afternoon and early evening.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

In the upper levels a deep trough will move out of the region on
Sunday. At the surface a cold front will be through the region by
this evening. Some wrap around moisture may bring some lingering
clouds until drier air moves in tomorrow afternoon/evening. High
pressure will be overhead tomorrow night and Sunday. POPs will be
very low. Highs will be much cooler in the mid to upper 60s tomorrow
and in the mid 70s on Sunday. Lows will be in the mid to upper 40s.

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

East coast trough will continue lifting northeast Sunday with our
area underneath building high pressure at the surface and aloft.
Tranquil weather is anticipated through much of the long term period
which will allow temperatures to moderate into the low to mid 80s
for highs and lows into the low 60s by mid week. The next system
will approach the tri state region late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 06Z Saturday]

Strong to severe squall line will cross over the tri state region
overnight through this morning. Timing of the line seems fairly
consistent and used the HRRR and NAM for timing. Again, not much
change in timing from the previous TAF set. Will metwatch and
amend as needed. Expect MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys to accompany this
line. Also added stronger gradient winds in the late morning
through afternoon hours well behind the convective line as winds
shift to the northwest.

&&

.MARINE...

A line of strong to severe storms will move through this morning.
Winds up to 80 mph are possible with these storms. Isolated
tornadoes are also expected. Strong southerly winds will become
westerly and even stronger this morning. A Gale Warning is in
effect this morning until this evening. Frequent gusts up to 40
knots are expected. Seas will peak this afternoon and evening at
8 to 12 feet with occasional seas up to 15 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A line of thunderstorms will move through the region through the
morning hours. High dispersions above 75 are likely later today
and Saturday. Otherwise no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Today's quick moving system will bring about 1 to 1.5 inches of
rainfall to the area. This will not cause widespread flooding
issues. Persistent strong winds from the south-southwest, however,
will cause coastal flooding along the Big Bend coastline from the
Ochlockonee River eastward to the Suwannee River.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the office or
tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   73  49  69  46  77 /  90  10   0   0   0
Panama City   70  52  68  52  72 /  40  20   0   0   0
Dothan        67  46  66  46  75 /  40  10   0   0   0
Albany        71  47  65  46  75 /  90  10  10   0   0
Valdosta      76  49  68  47  76 /  90   0   0   0   0
Cross City    75  52  69  48  76 /  90  10  10   0   0
Apalachicola  73  53  69  51  73 /  80  20   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal
     Dixie-Coastal Taylor.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM EDT
     /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
     Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-
     Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Saturday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal
     Franklin-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla.

GA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-
     Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-
     Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-
     Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
     Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM EDT /9 PM CDT/ this evening to
     11 PM EDT /10 PM CDT/ Saturday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal
     Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20
     Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to
     Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach
     to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     from 20 to 60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 10 AM EDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning to 10 PM EDT
     /9 PM CDT/ this evening for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters
     From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl
     out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to
     Apalachicola FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach
     to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...McD
SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...McD
FIRE WEATHER...Scholl
HYDROLOGY...Nguyen

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
840 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0814 AM     TSTM WND DMG     VEREEN                  30.28N 84.24W
04/19/2019                   LEON               FL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF A TREE DOWN ON A HOME NEAR
            WOODVILLE HIGHWAY.

&&

RH

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