Wind Advisory 11, NWS Sacramento, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
349 PM PST Tue Feb 12 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong storm event will bring widespread precipitation across
the area starting tonight with the potential for moderate to heavy
rain and mountain snow. Local flooding with ponding on roads and
rises on streams and river possible through Thursday. Periods of
wet weather continue into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Very tricky, changeable forecast as a strong storm system moves
into the area tonight through Thursday. Snow levels will start low
tonight, then rise rapidly by Wednesday afternoon as strong warm
advection moves in. The timing and extent of this is particularly
difficult to project, with some cold air entrenching for a time
over the northern mountains and locally in mountain valleys and
basins. A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect starting this
evening for the mountains, extending through Friday afternoon. A
cooler system will bring snow levels back down Thursday night to
3000-4000 feet. Thursday will see snow levels around 6000-7000
feet, bringing high snow amounts to the passes. This will make
high mountain travel difficult to impossible at times. Thursday
has trended wetter as the trough is deeper and slower than
previously projected. High level snow amounts of around 2 to 5
feet are expected through Friday, more over high peaks.

Winds will pick Wednesday morning, then continue into the
evening. Gusts up to 40 to 50 mph are possible in the Valley,
strongest over the northern San Joaquin Valley. The Advisory has
been expanded into Thursday, when winds strengthen again. This
could bring down tree branches and cause local power outages.

Rain totals are impressive: 1 to 4 inches in the Valley, 3 to 6
inches in the foothills and mountains, 6 to 9 inches in portions
of western Plumas and eastern Butte counties. A Flood Watch
continues for much of the area Wednesday morning through Thursday
afternoon as saturated ground and elevated streams will respond to
significant rain and even some melting foothill snow. Higher
elevation snowpack is dry and deep and should readily absorb most
of the rain, suppressing runoff. Ponding on roads is likely in
low lying areas. Creeks and streams will rise. Main stem rivers
will see weirs flow and may experience local flooding at some
points.

Atmospheric instability may be enough Thursday for a few
thunderstorms over the central and northern Sacramento Valley.
Have introduced a small area with a slight chance, but confidence
is low for now. May expand or remove these depending on future
trends. EK

 &&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)

No major systems are expected for the extended period but wet
weather is going to continue for the start of it. We will remain
embedded on the west end of a long wave troughing pattern.
Widespread mountain snow showers are expected both Saturday and
Sunday with snow levels 2000 to 3000 feet. Mountain travel will
likely be an issue over the weekend. Valley showers will also be
possible during the weekend with the best chances coming Saturday
night into Sunday morning. The trough will be pushing to the SE on
Sunday and we will see cold air build into NorCal. Snow levels
will fall to 1000 to 2000 feet Sunday night and we will see some
lingering snow showers. Some very light snow accumulation can't
be ruled out in the foothills late Sunday but it does look to
remain minor. Quiet but chilly weather is expected for early next
week.

-CJM

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected through the period, although rain will
begin to move over terminals between 00-06Z from the northwest.
Winds will begin to increase near the end of the forecast period
primariliy from the south southeast.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from late tonight through Thursday afternoon for
Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Clear
Lake/Southern Lake County-Motherlode-Mountains Southwestern
Shasta County to Northern Lake County-Northeast
Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Northern
San Joaquin Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-
Southern Sacramento Valley-West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-
Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Friday for Burney Basin /
Eastern Shasta County-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County-
West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen
Park.

Wind Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 4 PM PST Thursday for
Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Northern
San Joaquin Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley.

&&

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