Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Sacramento, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
408 AM PST Thu Feb 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong storm event continues to bring widespread precipitation to
the region. Snow levels will lower again this afternoon with heavy
snow returning to the mountains. Local flooding with ponding on
roads and rises on streams and rivers possible today. Periods of
wet weather continue into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Warm front presently over the central Sacramento Valley continues
to move only very slowly to the north. There's a big temperature
gradient across the front with lower to mid 60s in the Sacramento
area and lower 40s in the Chico area. Strong southerly winds have
been going all night south of the front where winds have been
gusting to 35-45 mph.

Moderate to heavy precipitation has been focused overnight along
the front to the north of Sacramento with more scattered rain to
the south. Rainfall amounts since Wednesday evening have been
around 1/2 an inch to an inch in the Sacramento Valley north of
Sacramento with 1 to 3 inches across the surrounding foothills and
mountains.

987 mb surface low presently just off the northwest coast of
California forecast to move up into western Oregon this morning
(taking the warm front with it up into far northern California)
while the cold front moves ashore. The gusty southerly winds are
then forecast to work their way up the Sacramento Valley as
surface gradients tighten and better mixing develops behind the
cold front. Strong southerly winds will continue in the valley and
foothills into early Friday with gusts of 45-55 mph.

Cold front pushes inland this morning and is forecast to reach the
northern Sierra around midday. Widespread precipitation is
forecast to taper in the valley behind the front this morning, but
will continue across the northern Sierra. Snow levels are forecast
to drop to around the pass levels around noon, and to below 5000
feet by mid-afternoon.

It looks like another heavy snow event shaping up for the northern
Sierra west slopes into Saturday with lowering snow levels, and
steeper lapse rates with more favorable upslope flow supporting
heavier snowfall rates. Current forecast is for around 4-5 feet of
snow accumulation at KBLU through early Saturday.

Potential for thunderstorms from late morning into the afternoon
in the increasingly unstable environment post-front. Small hail
and strong winds are the primary threat. However, surface
troughing forecast in the lee of the Coast Range may allow enough
backing of low-level flow in the Sacramento Valley to allow for
persistent convection to develop rotating updrafts with potential
for a few funnel clouds or perhaps a weak tornado.

Wet and cooler pattern will continue into the weekend as several
disturbances drop down from the northwest bringing showers and
adding to the snowpack in the mountains.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)
Main upper trough will be located over the southwest US leaving
NorCal dry by early Monday. A moderate pressure gradient across
the Sierra Monday and Monday night will bring breezy north winds
to the area with high temperatures continuing to be below normal.
Upper ridging Tuesday will keep one more day of dry weather before
models depict the potential for another system Wednesday. Small
chances for precipitation continue from Wednesday on, but models
are still quite a bit different leading to low confidence with any
precipitation chances for mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR/MVFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Gusty south
to southwest winds expected through the period with gusts up to 40
knots possible. Best chances for thunderstorms between 18-22Z at
sites. Rain may become more scattered this afternoon.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for Carquinez Strait and Delta-
Central Sacramento Valley-Clear Lake/Southern Lake County-
Motherlode-Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Northern Lake
County-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento
Valley-Northern San Joaquin Valley-Shasta Lake Area / Northern
Shasta County-Southern Sacramento Valley-West Slope Northern
Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Saturday for West Slope
Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM PST Friday for Carquinez Strait and
Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Clear Lake/Southern Lake County-
Motherlode-Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Northern Lake
County-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento
Valley-Northern San Joaquin Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley.

Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 4 AM PST Saturday
for Burney Basin / Eastern Shasta County-Shasta Lake Area /
Northern Shasta County.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
859 AM PST THU FEB 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 AM     FLOOD            2 WSW LOS MOLINOS       40.02N 122.12W
02/14/2019                   TEHAMA             CA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            THE MEDIA IS RELAYING INFORMATION FROM THE
            TEHAMA COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE ON FLOODING.
            FIFTH STREET IN THE CITY OF TEHAMA, LEADING
            INTO GYLE ROAD IS CLOSED.

&&

ROGUE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
904 AM PST THU FEB 14 2019

CAZ019-067-069-141745-
Northern San Joaquin Valley-Motherlode-West Slope Northern Sierra
Nevada-
904 AM PST THU FEB 14 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL
TUOLUMNE...NORTHEASTERN STANISLAUS...SOUTHEASTERN EL DORADO...CENTRAL
CALAVERAS AND NORTHEASTERN AMADOR COUNTIES...

At 903 AM PST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near White Hall to Telegraph City.
Movement was east at 65 mph.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent lightning and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
San Andreas, Vallecito, Rail Road Flat, Glencoe, Cooks Station, Lily
Gap, Copper Cove Village, Mountain Ranch, Telegraph City, Angels
City, Kyburz, Avery, Hodson, Forest Meadows, Copperopolis, Carson
Hill, White Hall, Angels Camp, Arnold and Murphys.

LAT...LON 3878 12006 3784 12055 3787 12077 3879 12043
TIME...MOT...LOC 1703Z 264DEG 55KT 3880 12036 3794 12074

PCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1017 AM PST THU FEB 14 2019

CAZ019-067-069-141915-
Northern San Joaquin Valley-Motherlode-West Slope Northern Sierra
Nevada-
1017 AM PST THU FEB 14 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
TUOLUMNE...NORTHEASTERN STANISLAUS...SOUTH CENTRAL EL DORADO...
CENTRAL CALAVERAS AND CENTRAL AMADOR COUNTIES...

At 1014 AM PST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Cooks Station to near Keystone.
Movement was northeast at 10 mph.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding and mudl slides. Do not drive your vehicle
through flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for portions of El Dorado,
Calaveras, and Amador counties due to some of these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sonora, Tuttletown, Vallecito, Rail Road Flat, Cooks Station, Lily
Gap, Keystone, Mountain Ranch, Springfield, Angels City, Chinese
Camp, Avery, Forest Meadows, Carson Hill, Angels Camp, Arnold,
Columbia, Jamestown, East Sonora and Murphys.

LAT...LON 3866 12026 3777 12035 3777 12057 3855 12056
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 234DEG 10KT 3852 12054 3778 12054

PCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1021 AM PST THU FEB 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 AM     FLOOD            ESPARTO                 38.69N 122.02W
02/14/2019                   YOLO               CA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            CALTRANS REPORTS THAT THERE IS A FULL
            CLOSURE OF HIGHWAY 16, BOTH EASTBOUND AND
            WESTBOUND, DUE TO FLOODING. (ESPARTO TO
            COUNTY RD 89/GUYS STATION).

&&

ROGUE

Special Weather Statement...Corrected
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1026 AM PST THU FEB 14 2019

CAZ019-067-069-141915-
Northern San Joaquin Valley-Motherlode-West Slope Northern Sierra
Nevada-
1026 AM PST THU FEB 14 2019

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN
TUOLUMNE...NORTHEASTERN STANISLAUS...SOUTH CENTRAL EL DORADO...
CENTRAL CALAVERAS AND CENTRAL AMADOR COUNTIES...

At 1014 AM PST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Cooks Station to near Keystone.
Movement was northeast at 10 mph.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, along with
reports of flooding and mud slides. Do not drive your vehicle
through flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with these
storms.

A Flash Flood Warning is in effect for portions of El Dorado,
Calaveras, and Amador counties due to some of these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Sonora, Tuttletown, Vallecito, Rail Road Flat, Cooks Station, Lily
Gap, Keystone, Mountain Ranch, Springfield, Angels City, Chinese
Camp, Avery, Forest Meadows, Carson Hill, Angels Camp, Arnold,
Columbia, Jamestown, East Sonora and Murphys.

LAT...LON 3866 12026 3777 12035 3777 12057 3855 12056
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 234DEG 10KT 3852 12054 3778 12054

PCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
1040 AM PST THU FEB 14 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0902 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NE GLENCOE            38.38N 120.56W
02/14/2019                   CALAVERAS          CA   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            OVER THE PAST 2-3 HOURS 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF
            RAIN HAVE FALLEN. A MUDSLIDE WAS REPORTED AT
            THIS PARTICULAR LOCATION WITH THE ROAD BEING
            CLOSED. THE CLOSER GOES FROM WOODHOUSE MINE
            TO WEST POINT.

&&

ROGUE