Alert archive / Mississippi / Tornado Watches in 2019

Tornado Watch 698

November 30, 20196 parishes in Louisiana; 38 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Nov 30, 2019, 3:54 PM CST for 6 parishes in Louisiana; 38 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Nov 30, 2019, 3:54 PM CST (21:54 UTC)
Expired: Nov 30, 2019, 11:00 PM CST
In force: 7 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 1.5 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 44 counties

Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Attala County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clay County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Leake County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Warren County, MS, Washington County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 84 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 30%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 40%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 20%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 10%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 70%

Warnings issued inside it

10 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 30, 4:09 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Franklin, Richland	51 min
Nov 30, 4:14 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Bolivar, Sunflower	46 min
Nov 30, 4:35 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Franklin, Madison, Tensas	40 min
Nov 30, 5:25 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	East Carroll, Madison	50 min
Nov 30, 5:45 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Yazoo	45 min
Nov 30, 6:24 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Bolivar, Leflore, Sunflower	16 min
Nov 30, 6:56 PM CST	Tornado Warning	JAN	Madison	10 min
Nov 30, 7:16 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Attala, Leake, Neshoba, Winston	44 min
Nov 30, 7:51 PM CST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Noxubee, Winston	39 min
Nov 30, 8:02 PM CST	Flash Flood Warning	MEG	Calhoun, Itawamba, Lafayette, Lee, Pontotoc, Prentiss and 2 more	3 hr

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 9.9 hours before the alert went out and 77 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1016 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 222 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 235 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

657 
WWUS20 KWNS 302152
SEL8  
SPC WW 302152
LAZ000-MSZ000-010500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 698
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
355 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Northeast Louisiana
  Mississippi

* Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until
  1100 PM CST.

* Primary threats include...
  A couple tornadoes possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A few fast-moving severe thunderstorms/supercells will
cross the Mississippi River late this afternoon and early evening
with other intensifying storms expected across the region this
evening as the air mass modestly destabilizes from west to east.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
north and south of a line from 55 miles north northwest of Natchez
MS to 15 miles south southeast of Columbus MS. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 697...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 24045.

...Guyer

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Nov 30, 4:45 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Polk	2 hr
Nov 30, 9:46 AM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia and 12 more	3 hr
Nov 30, 11:38 AM CST	Tornado Watch	SPC	Arkansas, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Chicot, Cleveland and 11 more	7 hr
Nov 30, 2:10 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Ashley, Bradley, Chicot, Desha, Drew, Union	2 hr
Nov 30, 2:31 PM CST	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Lee, Phillips	59 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Mississippi, 2019 Tornado Watches in Louisiana, 2019 Every tornado watch in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.