Alert archive / North Carolina / Mesoscale Discussions in 2019
Mesoscale Discussion 913
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 31, 2019, 4:43 PM EDT for 28 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 62 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 31, 2019, 4:43 PM EDT (20:43 UTC)
- Expired
- May 31, 2019, 5:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 62 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 28 counties
Alamance County, NC, Anson County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caswell County, NC, Chatham County, NC, Davidson County, NC, Durham County, NC, Forsyth County, NC, Franklin County, NC, Granville County, NC, Guilford County, NC, Halifax County, NC, Harnett County, NC, Johnston County, NC, Lee County, NC, Montgomery County, NC, Moore County, NC, Nash County, NC, Orange County, NC, Person County, NC, Randolph County, NC, Richmond County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Stanly County, NC, Union County, NC, Vance County, NC, Wake County, NC, Warren County, NC
The radar
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 8.7 hours before the alert went out and 58 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 62 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -125 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1499 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 57 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -4 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 97 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- -0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.1
The text
As transmitted.
762
ACUS11 KWNS 312044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312043
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-312145-
Mesoscale Discussion 0913
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 PM CDT Fri May 31 2019
Areas affected...NC Piedmont
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 300...
Valid 312043Z - 312145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 300
continues.
SUMMARY...Large hail and scattered wind damage (due to isolated
severe gusts) are probable over the next several hours as storms
over western NC move into central NC.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a myriad of small-scale thunderstorm
outflow boundaries and the effective sea breeze boundary slowly
pushing into east-central and central parts of NC. The area near
the Research Triangle has been largely void of thunderstorms through
mid afternoon. However, as an eastward migrating, mid-level
shortwave trough moves into western VA/western NC early this
evening, expecting storm development to increase across central NC
late this afternoon. KRAX VAD data shows 40kt flow at 6km AGL
increasing to 60kt at 9km. Surface dewpoints have mixed into the
lower 60s across the NC Piedmont resulting in 25-30 degree
temperature spreads. The ample flow in the mid levels coupled with
storms moving into a more moisture-rich airmass (near I-95) will
favor robust storm development---including weak supercells and
episodic severe multicells. Large hail will favor the supercell
storms and the well-mixed boundary layer will promote efficient
downdrafts capable of wind damage and isolated severe gusts (around
60mph) with the more intense storms.
..Smith.. 05/31/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...ILM...RNK...GSP...
LAT...LON 36547808 36557907 36108035 35708071 35498092 34978054
34797978 35507823 36297748 36547808SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 8:02 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beaufort, Bladen, Carteret, Chowan, Columbus, Craven and 18 more | 58 min |
| May 31, 12:07 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Alexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Burke, Cabarrus and 41 more | 113 min |
| May 31, 1:29 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alamance, Alexander, Alleghany, Anson, Ashe, Beaufort and 76 more | 10 hr |
| May 31, 7:22 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alamance, Anson, Beaufort, Bertie, Bladen, Cabarrus and 59 more | 83 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in North Carolina, 2019Every mesoscale discussion in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.