Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2019
Mesoscale Discussion 39
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 20, 2019, 12:46 AM EST for 9 counties in New Hampshire; 21 counties in New York; 14 counties in Vermont. It was in force for 4 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 20, 2019, 12:46 AM EST (05:46 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 20, 2019, 4:45 AM EST
- In force
- 4 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 44 counties
Belknap County, NH, Carroll County, NH, Cheshire County, NH, Coos County, NH, Grafton County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Strafford County, NH, Sullivan County, NH, Cayuga County, NY, Clinton County, NY, Essex County, NY, Franklin County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Jefferson County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Madison County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, St. Lawrence County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Addison County, VT, Bennington County, VT, Caledonia County, VT, Chittenden County, VT, Essex County, VT, Franklin County, VT, Grand Isle County, VT, Lamoille County, VT, Orange County, VT, Orleans County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Washington County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT
The radar
The Burlington radar (KCXX), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:50 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 502 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 64 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 339 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 428 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
268
ACUS11 KWNS 200547
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200546
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-200945-
Mesoscale Discussion 0039
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1146 PM CST Sat Jan 19 2019
Areas affected...Northern NY...VT...NH...Far Southwest ME
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 200546Z - 200945Z
SUMMARY...Widespread snowfall rates from 1-2"/hr are anticipated
with localized rates above 2"/hr possible.
DISCUSSION...A maturing mid-latitude cyclone continues to move
eastward across the OH Valley with a large area of moderate to
occasionally heavy snow ahead of this system across PA and much of
NY. Expectation is for this large precipitation shield to expand
northward into northern NY, VT, and NH over the next several hours.
At the same time, low-level winds within the warm conveyor are
expected to strengthen slightly as the system matures, resulting in
an increase of the warm-air advection ahead of the cyclone.
Consequently, a large area of moderate to heavy snow will develop
from northern NY eastward across VT, NH, and into far southwest ME.
Given the strength of the warm-air advection/frontogenesis,
widespread snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr are anticipated with localized
areas experiencing rates above 2"/hr.
..Mosier.. 01/20/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 44407585 44897516 45017434 45037195 44827114 44487075
43947074 43287089 42977128 42777181 42657234 42617353
42867656 43217750 43817691 44407585SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 6:42 AM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Belknap, Carroll, Cheshire, Coos, Grafton, Hillsborough and 4 more | 6 hr |
| Jan 20, 1:01 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Belknap, Carroll, Cheshire, Coos, Grafton, Hillsborough and 4 more | 4 hr |
| Jan 19, 9:33 PM EST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allegany, Bronx, Broome, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Chemung and 11 more | 3 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2019Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2019Mesoscale Discussions in New Hampshire, 2019Every mesoscale discussion in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.