Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2019

Mesoscale Discussion 2139

October 31, 201916 counties in New York; Bennington County, Vermont

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 31, 2019, 11:16 PM EDT for 16 counties in New York; Bennington County, Vermont. It was in force for 119 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 31, 2019, 11:16 PM EDT (03:16 UTC)
Expired
Nov 1, 2019, 1:15 AM EDT
In force
119 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Albany County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Bennington County, VT

The radar

The Albany radar (KENX), 23 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 3.3 hours before the alert went out and 43 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2019-11-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 5 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albany, NY at 00:00Z on 2019-11-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 447 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
5 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-217 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
692 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
63 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
447 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
592 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

485 
ACUS11 KWNS 010316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010316 
VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-010515-

Mesoscale Discussion 2139
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019

Areas affected...Portions of southeast New York and western New
England

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 690...

Valid 010316Z - 010515Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 690
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for isolated damaging wind gusts will continue
for the next few hours across WW690 -- especially over southeastern
portions of the watch.

DISCUSSION...While radar imagery indicates a general decrease in
storm intensity across much of WW690 over the last hour or so, the
thunderstorms moving from WW691 into southeastern portions of WW690
have remained somewhat stronger -- likely owing to relatively better
instability to the south. Given the strong low-level wind field
(e.g., > 50 knots near 1 km), isolated damaging wind gusts will
remain possible with the strongest storms as they move across
southeastern portions of WW690 (e.g., southeastern New York) over
the next several hours.

..Elliott.. 11/01/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...

LAT...LON   41367466 41487517 42997461 43697429 43727347 43217307
            41357348 41367466

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 31, 8:21 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAlbany, Broome, Chenango, Columbia, Delaware, Fulton and 16 more54 min
Oct 31, 9:58 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCOrange, Putnam, Richmond, Rockland, Westchester2 hr
Nov 1, 12:50 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBronx, Columbia, Dutchess, Kings, Nassau, New York and 6 more85 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2019Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2019Every mesoscale discussion in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.