Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2019
Mesoscale Discussion 2139
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 31, 2019, 11:16 PM EDT for 16 counties in New York; Bennington County, Vermont. It was in force for 119 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 31, 2019, 11:16 PM EDT (03:16 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 1, 2019, 1:15 AM EDT
- In force
- 119 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
Counties Albany County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Greene County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Bennington County, VT
The radar
The Albany radar (KENX), 23 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:20 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Albany, NY (KALY), launched 00:00Z, 3.3 hours before the alert went out and 43 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 5 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -217 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 692 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 63 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 447 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 592 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
485
ACUS11 KWNS 010316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010316
VTZ000-CTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-010515-
Mesoscale Discussion 2139
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2019
Areas affected...Portions of southeast New York and western New
England
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 690...
Valid 010316Z - 010515Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 690
continues.
SUMMARY...The threat for isolated damaging wind gusts will continue
for the next few hours across WW690 -- especially over southeastern
portions of the watch.
DISCUSSION...While radar imagery indicates a general decrease in
storm intensity across much of WW690 over the last hour or so, the
thunderstorms moving from WW691 into southeastern portions of WW690
have remained somewhat stronger -- likely owing to relatively better
instability to the south. Given the strong low-level wind field
(e.g., > 50 knots near 1 km), isolated damaging wind gusts will
remain possible with the strongest storms as they move across
southeastern portions of WW690 (e.g., southeastern New York) over
the next several hours.
..Elliott.. 11/01/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...
LAT...LON 41367466 41487517 42997461 43697429 43727347 43217307
41357348 41367466SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 8:21 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Albany, Broome, Chenango, Columbia, Delaware, Fulton and 16 more | 54 min |
| Oct 31, 9:58 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Orange, Putnam, Richmond, Rockland, Westchester | 2 hr |
| Nov 1, 12:50 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bronx, Columbia, Dutchess, Kings, Nassau, New York and 6 more | 85 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2019Mesoscale Discussions in Vermont, 2019Every mesoscale discussion in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.