Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2019
Mesoscale Discussion 2021
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 25, 2019, 7:17 PM CDT for 5 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 118 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 25, 2019, 7:17 PM CDT (00:17 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 25, 2019, 9:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 118 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Garfield County, OK, Grant County, OK, Kay County, OK, Major County, OK, Noble County, OK
The radar
The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 42 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 0.3 hours before the alert went out and 141 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2544 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -38 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1570 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 88 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 184 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.5
- Supercell composite
- 8.8
The text
As transmitted.
381
ACUS11 KWNS 260017
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260017
OKZ000-260215-
Mesoscale Discussion 2021
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0717 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2019
Areas affected...North-Central OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 260017Z - 260215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few severe thunderstorms are possible across
north-central OK during the next hour or two.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar and visible satellite imagery reveals
several rapidly developing thunderstorms across Major and Garfield
Counties in north-central OK. This activity appears to have
initiated amidst the persistent convergence along a residual outflow
boundary. This convergence helped overcome the convective inhibition
brought on by warm low/mid-level temperatures (i.e. between 850-700
mb). Expectation is for these storms to persist for the next hour or
so, but they will likely struggle to maintain strength after that
time frame given the lack of large-scale forcing for ascent and
increasing convective inhibition.
Ample low-level moisture is supporting strong buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE
over 2500 J/kg) and intense updrafts capable of water loading.
Consequently, the strong wet downbursts capable of damaging wind
gusts are possible. Isolated hail could also occur. Additionally,
veering low-level wind profile and ambient vorticity near the
surface boundary could support a brief tornado. Overall, any severe
threat is expected to remain isolated and a watch is not currently
anticipated, but convective trends will be monitored closely.
..Mosier/Goss.. 09/26/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 36389867 36759824 36929698 36479678 36049709 36109848
36389867SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 9:07 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alfalfa, Cherokee, Craig, Creek, Delaware, Garfield and 13 more | 113 min |
| Sep 25, 9:30 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Cherokee, Craig, Creek, Delaware, Garfield and 26 more | 8 hr |
| Sep 25, 11:22 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Cherokee, Cleveland, Craig, Creek, Delaware and 26 more | 83 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2019Every mesoscale discussion in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.