Alert archive / New York / Mesoscale Discussions in 2019

Mesoscale Discussion 1925

September 4, 20198 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 4, 2019, 3:27 PM EDT for 8 states. It was in force for 93 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 4, 2019, 3:27 PM EDT (19:27 UTC)
Expired: Sep 4, 2019, 5:00 PM EDT
In force: 93 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center

All 59 counties

Berkshire County, MA, Essex County, MA, Franklin County, MA, Hampden County, MA, Hampshire County, MA, Middlesex County, MA, Norfolk County, MA, Suffolk County, MA, Worcester County, MA, Cumberland County, ME, York County, ME, Belknap County, NH, Carroll County, NH, Cheshire County, NH, Grafton County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Rockingham County, NH, Strafford County, NH, Sullivan County, NH, Bergen County, NJ, Essex County, NJ, Hudson County, NJ, Hunterdon County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Passaic County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Union County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Bronx County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Greene County, NY, Kings County, NY, Nassau County, NY, New York County, NY, Orange County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Queens County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Richmond County, NY, Rockland County, NY, Suffolk County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Washington County, NY, Westchester County, NY, Monroe County, PA, Northampton County, PA, Pike County, PA, Kent County, RI, Providence County, RI, Bennington County, VT, Orange County, VT, Rutland County, VT, Windham County, VT, Windsor County, VT

The radar

The Albany radar (KENX), 136 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albany, NY (KALY), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1083 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 340 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 378 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

734 
ACUS11 KWNS 041928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041927 
MEZ000-MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-042100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1925
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Wed Sep 04 2019

Areas affected...Southeast NY...Southern VT/NH...Far southwest
ME...CT...MA...RI...Northern NJ...Far Northeast PA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 634...

Valid 041927Z - 042100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 634
continues.

SUMMARY...Threat for damaging wind gusts continues across much of
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 634.

DISCUSSION...Cold front continues to progress eastward across the
Northeast and recent surface analysis places the boundary from
north-central VT southwestward to just east of ALB to CXY (in
southeast PA). Northern portion of the line of thunderstorms
initially along the front has accelerated slightly ahead of it while
also losing intensity. This loss of intensity is likely tied reduced
lift away from the front and less buoyancy from lower surface
temperatures. Warm layer noted around 500-600 mb on the 18Z ALB
sounding could also be contributing to reduced updraft strength.

Southern portion of this line of has maintained its intensity and is
moving into a slightly more favorable thermodynamic environment.
Expectation is for this portion of the line to continue eastward,
posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Additional development is
also possible farther south along the front across far northeast PA
and northern NJ. These storms will also pose a risk for damaging
wind gusts. A low tornado threat remains, but surface winds have
been veering westerly well ahead of the front, further reducing any
tornado potential.

..Mosier.. 09/04/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

LAT...LON   43647336 44017283 44137254 44257206 44267170 44207084
            43937027 43587013 41967109 40577250 40367450 40817570
            42497403 43647336

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 4, 11:19 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC		116 min
Sep 4, 12:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Greater Bridgeport Planning Region, Capitol Planning Region, Northwest Hills Planning Region, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, Naugatuck Valley Planning Region, Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region and 1 more	8 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in New York, 2019 Mesoscale Discussions in New Jersey, 2019 Mesoscale Discussions in Connecticut, 2019 Every mesoscale discussion in 2019

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.