Alert archive / Michigan / Mesoscale Discussions in 2019
Mesoscale Discussion 1921
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 3, 2019, 4:20 PM EDT for 21 counties in Michigan. It was in force for 85 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 3, 2019, 4:20 PM EDT (20:20 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 3, 2019, 5:45 PM EDT
- In force
- 85 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 21 counties
Antrim County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Clare County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Lake County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI
The radar
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 239 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 61 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -169 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 870 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 62 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 443 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 346 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.3
The text
As transmitted.
449
ACUS11 KWNS 032020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032020
MIZ000-032145-
Mesoscale Discussion 1921
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Tue Sep 03 2019
Areas affected...Northern Lower MI
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 032020Z - 032145Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated strong wind gust or two possible across
northern portions of Lower MI during the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows a large area of
cloudiness over all of northern Lower MI. This area of cloudiness
has limited diurnal heating, keeping temperatures in the low 70s.
This limited heating has resulted in a largely stable air mass
despite advection of relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and
dewpoints in the mid 60s. Strong forcing for ascent attendant to the
approaching shortwave trough will likely result in sporadic deep
convection capable of lightning and possibly a strong wind gust or
two. Isolated nature of these storms (and the resulting severe
threat) will likely preclude the need for a watch.
..Mosier/Guyer.. 09/03/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
LAT...LON 44968594 45348545 45748454 45168340 44268357 43578438
43418497 43508636 44308635 44968594Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Michigan, 2019Every mesoscale discussion in 2019
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.