Mesoscale Discussion 1221

Issued

Jun 23, 2019, 3:41 PM CDT (20:41 UTC)

Expired

Jun 23, 2019, 4:45 PM CDT

In force

64 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

800 
ACUS11 KWNS 232041
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232041 
KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-232145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

Areas affected...southeast Oklahoma...much of Arkansas...southeast
Missouri...southern Illinois...western Kentucky...western
Tennessee...and northwest Mississippi

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 433...

Valid 232041Z - 232145Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 433
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues across the remaining
valid portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 435.  An areal extension
may needed in the short term across portions of southern Arkansas
and perhaps southern Illinois and western Kentucky.

DISCUSSION...Severe thunderstorms were in progress along an
east/southeastward-moving linear convective system at 2035Z, with
several reports of damaging winds received.  The most intense
portion of the line extended from southeast MO across central
Arkansas, in an environment characterized by strong instability
(MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg) and 30-40 kts of southwesterly
deep-layer shear. With a well-developed cold pool, the line should
continue moving east/southeast this afternoon with a continued risk
for damaging winds, with transient low-level circulations possible
along the leading edge entering far southern Illinois and western
Kentucky.

A local watch extension in area may be needed in the short term
across portions of southern Arkansas, where current line motion
would take the convective line to the southern edge of the watch by
around 2130Z. In addition, any northward development of the line
across southeast MO would necessitate a local areal extension across
southern IL and western KY north of the current watch boundary.

..Bunting.. 06/23/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON   33759108 33359298 33189372 33549482 34119479 34649414
            35049254 35859118 36629024 37498997 37548820 37448729
            36818729 36658816 35788907 34569002 33759108

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2019Mesoscale Discussions in Kentucky, 2019Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2019Every mesoscale discussion in 2019

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.