Severe Thunderstorm Warning 25, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
958 AM MDT Thu Jun 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance will cross the Great Basin today
into Friday. A weak ridge is expected for Saturday followed by
another disturbance on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An area of 300mb wind divergence in combination with
an increase of moisture at mid levels has produce instability over
northwest Utah this morning. This area should expand eastward this
afternoon as the trough over northern Nevada moves east. Have
increased PoPs across the north this morning but decreased them
over the Uinta Basin as dynamics remain far removed from there.

The dry low levels will combine with the added dynamics of the
trough moving into western Utah this afternoon and early evening
to give a threat of severe thunderstorms over mainly the west
deserts from about Juab county northward late this afternoon and
from the southern to northern Wasatch Front early this evening.
Strong erratic winds will be the main threat. The HREF ensemble
shows an organized area of high radar reflectivity forecast from
near Wendover northward at 22Z moving east to the Wasatch Front by
01Z and the western Uintas and southwest Wyoming by 03-04Z.

Updated the forecast over southern Utah for more sun this morning
but as the trough from Nevada moves into Utah later today the
cloud cover will increase as well as the threat of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...An area of high-based showers will remain north of the
terminal area through the balance of the morning. Similar high-based
showers will develop again during the afternoon, with a chance of
thunderstorms in vicinity of the terminal in the 23Z to 04Z
window. Prevailing winds will remain light from the southeast
through around 18Z, then switch to the northwest. A 40 percent
chance of gusty and erratic winds at the terminal will exist with
some of the high-based showers and storms beginning around late
afternoon and continuing through mid-evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weak trough will cross the region today through
Friday. Southwest winds will increase today ahead of the trough,
especially over southern and western portions. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms have developed over the northwest portion of
Utah (zone 478) and will continue to develop this afternoon,
mainly over the higher terrain, then move off across the lower
elevations through this evening. Any showers and thunderstorms
will be particularly capable of producing erratic strong gusty
winds today, especially across the west dessert where gusts may be
severe. Winds will shift to the northwest in the northern zones
later today and across the remainder of the region by Friday. A
weak ridge will be over the area Saturday but enough moisture may
linger for isolate thunderstorms over mainly the high terrain.
Afternoon min RH values will be a bit higher Friday and Saturday.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flood Watch through Friday morning for UTZ003.

WY...None.
&&

PUBLIC...Struthwolf
AVIATION...Conger
FIRE WEATHER...Struthwolf

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
931 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2019

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-131300-
Cache Valley/Utah Portion-Northern Wasatch Front-
Salt Lake and Tooele Valleys-Southern Wasatch Front-
Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains-Wasatch Mountain Valleys-
Wasatch Mountains I-80 North-Wasatch Mountains South of I-80-
Western Uinta Mountains-Wasatch Plateau/Book Cliffs-
Western Uinta Basin-Castle Country-San Rafael Swell-
Sanpete/Sevier Valleys-West Central Utah-Southwest Utah-
Utahs Dixie and Zion National Park-South Central Utah-
Glen Canyon Recreation Area/Lake Powell-Central Mountains-
Southern Mountains-Southwest Wyoming-
931 PM MDT Wed Jun 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the western two thirds of
Utah and southwest Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Warmer temperatures have accelerated snowmelt at the higher
elevations. As a result, waterways will continue to run high,
cold, and swift. Exercise caution near waterways, and keep a
close eye on children and pets.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Warmer temperatures have accelerated snowmelt at the higher
elevations. As a result, waterways will continue to run high,
cold, and swift. The Duchesne River between Hanna and Myton is
expected to exceed flood stage beginning Thursday and remain above
flood stage through at least the early part of next week. Little
Cottonwood Creek is forecast to be near flood stage by Thursday
afternoon. Exercise caution near waterways, and keep a close eye
on children and pets.

A few strong thunderstorms will be possible across northern Utah
Thursday afternoon. These thunderstorms will have the potential
for strong gusty winds and small hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

For more information from NOAA/s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For information on potential road travel impacts visit...
http://www.udottraffic.utah.gov/roadweatherforecast.aspx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
223 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2019

UTZ011-132115-
Western Uinta Basin UT-
223 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DUCHESNE COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM MDT...

At 223 PM MDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
cluster of strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 16 miles
east of Tabiona to near Duchesne...and moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Roosevelt, Duchesne, Myton, Altamont, Talmage, Cedarview, Utahn,
Bridgeland, Upalco, Mountain Home, Arcadia, Neola and Altonah.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches, take shelter in a sturdy building.

&&

LAT...LON 3999 11016 4015 11057 4041 11050 4046 11041
      4047 11028 4048 11025 4047 10998 3987 10998
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 282DEG 28KT 4042 11041 4012 11044

Bonnette

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
228 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2019

WYZ021-132115-
Southwest Wyoming WY-
228 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN UINTA COUNTY UNTIL
315 PM MDT...

At 228 PM MDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
cluster of strong thunderstorm near Lonetree, or 25 miles west of
Manila... moving east at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lonetree.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches, take shelter in a sturdy building.

&&

LAT...LON 4100 11040 4121 11038 4123 11005 4100 11005
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 248DEG 29KT 4112 11019

Bonnette

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
235 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2019

UTZ005-132115-
Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains UT-
235 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BOX ELDER COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM MDT...

At 235 PM MDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 30 miles south of Oakley Reservoir...moving east
at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lynn, Grouse Creek and Etna.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches, take shelter in a sturdy building.

&&

LAT...LON 4161 11404 4184 11404 4194 11365 4167 11364
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 248DEG 16KT 4174 11405

Bonnette

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
310 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2019

UTZ005-132200-
Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains UT-
310 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BOX ELDER COUNTY
UNTIL 400 PM MDT...

At 309 PM MDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 21 miles west of Park Valley and a cluster of
strong thunderstorms over the Raft River Mountains...moving east at
25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Park Valley, Lynn, Curlew Junction, Rosette, Yost and Standrod.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches, take shelter in a sturdy building.

&&

LAT...LON 4184 11295 4169 11348 4167 11384 4184 11382
      4199 11367 4200 11296
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 253DEG 21KT 4175 11374

Bonnette

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
313 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2019

UTZ013-517-518-132145-
Southern Utah Mountains UT-San Rafael Swell UT-
Central and Southwest Mountains UT-
313 PM MDT THU JUN 13 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL WAYNE...
SOUTHWESTERN EMERY AND SOUTHEASTERN SEVIER COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM
MDT...

At 312 PM MDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 15 miles northeast of Bicknell, or 20 miles
northwest of Capitol Reef National Park...moving northeast at 10 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph will be possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Wayne...southwestern Emery and southeastern Sevier Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches, take shelter in a sturdy building.

&&

LAT...LON 3841 11136 3856 11153 3879 11124 3854 11100
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 241DEG 10KT 3853 11138

Bonnette