Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
349 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft over the Utah today will shift east ahead of
an approaching cold Pacific trough schedule to reach the area
early this weekend. A strong cold front will sweep through the
region Friday into early Saturday, bringing much colder
temperatures to the state this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH 00Z MONDAY)...
A trough currently moving inland across the Pacific Northwest as
a shortwave rounds the base of the trough headed for the Northern
Rockies tonight. The next stronger wave continues to propagate the
trough downstream tomorrow before carving the trough over the
Northern Rockies. A trailing wave will cross over southern Idaho
Saturday, with the trough axis finally out of the region Sunday.

Strong height falls remain to our northwest this evening, and
build across Utah tomorrow. Rising heights and warming aloft will
ensue this weekend.

The approach of the Pacific trough axis will elevate the wind
field. This will favor increasing shear across northern Utah
today which when combined with moderately significant instability
due to anomalously high Precipitable Water values, will bring the
potential for strong to severe thunderstorms through this evening.
The greatest threat appears to be damaging winds due to the
increase in wind field, high LCL, and dry boundary layer yielding
elevated DCAPE. This is also indicated by the full suite of
Convective Allowing Models. Copious small hail (potential
accumulation) and lightning are also concerns.

Height falls will support additional shower activity Friday and
Friday evening across the north. Strong synoptic southwest winds
will develop ahead of the cold front due to the combination of
pressure falls, southerly pressure gradient and mixing from aloft.
It will be gusty on the cold side of the boundary as well due to
pressure rises and a stronger northwesterly pressure gradient. The
cold front is at the northwest tip of Utah sunrise Friday, and
into central Utah by sunset Friday. All but far southern and
southeast Utah will be in the cold sector by Saturday morning,
where the boundary should stall for the day. Saturday night, the
boundary will have cleared the entire state to the southeast.

Temperatures which are about 5-10F above today. Much of the state
should be seasonal Friday, and 10-15F below normal this weekend.
Most areas will trend from the 80s/90s down to the 60s/70s by
Saturday.

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z MONDAY)...
Behind the exiting trough, high pressure over the west coast is
expected to build over the forecast area beginning Monday, with
the ridge axis moving overhead by midweek. Therefore, the trend
for much of the long term period will be dry conditions and
warming temperatures. By Wednesday/Thursday, maxes are progged to
run 5F or more above seasonal normals.

Global models indicate the ridge will shift east late next week with
the approach of another Pacific storm system, but there remain
differences with regard to timing. GFS is noticeably faster than the
EC, bringing the trough onshore Wednesday and into Utah and
southwest Wyoming by Thursday as opposed to Friday or later in the
EC. The approach of the trough would curb the warming trend and
reintroduce the possibility of primarily diurnal convection. Have
indicated some isolated POPs by day seven to account for the faster
GFS timing.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
With much warmer temperatures, snowmelt will accelerate at high
elevations. Waterways remain running high, cold and swift.
Exercise caution near waterways, and keep a close eye on children
and pets.

&&

.AVIATION...
Expecting thunderstorms either at or near KSLC terminal around
23Z-02Z. Gusty erratic wind expected in the vicinity of storms.
More storms possible in vicinity until around 06Z. Outside of
storms, south winds will persist until a cool front passes through
the terminal 20Z-22Z and shift wind to northwest.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warning in Effect 9A-9P Friday for Zone 497 below 4500
feet.

Breezy with low RH expected for most valleys for the remainder of
this afternoon, and moreso Friday ahead of the next cold front.

ERC values remain below the 50th percentile, but are rising
across the state.

A warming and drying trend continues with increasingly gusty
southwest flow. A cold front will cross the state from northwest
to southeast Friday and Friday night, bringing cooler temperatures
to the region through the weekend.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through this
evening, some may be severe with copious lightning, very
gusty/erratic winds, and accumulating hail. Friday and Friday
night, showers will mainly affect northern Utah.

A warming and drying trend is forecast beginning Sunday and
extending through at least the middle of next week.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Friday for UTZ497.

     Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM MDT this evening for
     UTZ001>011-014-015-517.

WY...Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 11 PM MDT this evening for
     WYZ021.

&&

SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER/HYDROLOGY...10
LONG TERM...Traphagan
AVIATION...Billingsley

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion
visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
325 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2019

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-071300-
Cache Valley/Utah Portion-Northern Wasatch Front-
Salt Lake and Tooele Valleys-Southern Wasatch Front-
Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains-Wasatch Mountain Valleys-
Wasatch Mountains I-80 North-Wasatch Mountains South of I-80-
Western Uinta Mountains-Wasatch Plateau/Book Cliffs-
Western Uinta Basin-Castle Country-San Rafael Swell-
Sanpete/Sevier Valleys-West Central Utah-Southwest Utah-
Utahs Dixie and Zion National Park-South Central Utah-
Glen Canyon Recreation Area/Lake Powell-Central Mountains-
Southern Mountains-Southwest Wyoming-
325 PM MDT Thu Jun 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the western two thirds of
Utah and southwest Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move through the region
today. There is a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms across
Northern and portions of Central Utah. The strongest storms will
bring the threat of damaging winds, accumulating hail and copious
lightning. Stay aware of the threat for dangerous thunderstorms
today.

With much warmer temperatures, snowmelt will accelerate at high
elevations. Waterways remain running high, cold and swift.
Exercise caution near waterways, and keep a close eye on children
and pets.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A strong cold front will cross Utah from northwest to southeast
on Friday. Gusty south winds ahead of this front will shift to the
northwest and remain elevated behind the front. Dry and windy
conditions will fuel Red Flag conditions near Dixie Friday.

Much colder temperatures will follow the front for the weekend.
Temperatures Saturday will be 15 to 25 degrees colder than
Friday's readings, with the coldest temperatures across the
northern portion of the outlook area. Temperatures will warm on
Sunday, but still remain well below early June norms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

For more information from NOAA/s National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity

For information on potential road travel impacts visit...
http://www.udottraffic.utah.gov/roadweatherforecast.aspx

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
511 PM MDT THU JUN 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 ENE WENDOVER         40.78N 113.83W
06/06/2019  M56.00 MPH       TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            A 56 MPH WIND GUST WAS REPORTED AT THE BONNEVILLE SALT
            FLATS MESONET STATION.

0400 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 NE IBAPAH             40.11N 113.88W
06/06/2019  M64.00 MPH       TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            CLIFTON FLAT - CLFU1 RAWS, TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR

0410 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 S LAKESIDE           41.06N 112.89W
06/06/2019  M72.00 MPH       BOX ELDER          UT   MESONET

            A WIND GUST TO 72 MPH WAS OBSERVED AT THE LAKESIDE
            MOUNTAIN MESONET SITE.

0420 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 N LAKESIDE            41.33N 112.85W
06/06/2019  M60.00 MPH       BOX ELDER          UT   MESONET

            GUNNISON ISLAND - GNI 4242 FT

0422 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 N GRANTSVILLE         40.68N 112.47W
06/06/2019                   TOOELE             UT   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TRUCK BLOWN OVER ON I-80 NEAR MP 85. REPORT FROM UDOT.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
519 PM MDT THU JUN 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 ENE WENDOVER         40.78N 113.83W
06/06/2019  M56.00 MPH       TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            A 56 MPH WIND GUST WAS REPORTED AT THE BONNEVILLE SALT
            FLATS MESONET STATION.

0400 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 NE IBAPAH             40.11N 113.88W
06/06/2019  M64.00 MPH       TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            CLIFTON FLAT - CLFU1 RAWS, TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR

0410 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 S LAKESIDE           41.06N 112.89W
06/06/2019  M72.00 MPH       BOX ELDER          UT   MESONET

            A WIND GUST TO 72 MPH WAS OBSERVED AT THE LAKESIDE
            MOUNTAIN MESONET SITE.

0420 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 N LAKESIDE            41.33N 112.85W
06/06/2019  M60.00 MPH       BOX ELDER          UT   MESONET

            GUNNISON ISLAND - GNI 4242 FT

0422 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 N GRANTSVILLE         40.68N 112.47W
06/06/2019                   TOOELE             UT   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TRUCK BLOWN OVER ON I-80 NEAR MP 85. REPORT FROM UDOT.

0455 PM     TSTM WND GST     11 W HOOPER             41.15N 112.33W
06/06/2019  M59.00 MPH       WEBER              UT   MESONET

            FREMONT ISLAND - MILLER HILL - FREUT

0500 PM     TSTM WND GST     25 SSW DUGWAY           39.92N 112.94W
06/06/2019  M70.00 MPH       TOOELE             UT   MESONET

0500 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNE STANSBURY PARK    40.69N 112.26W
06/06/2019  M59.00 MPH       TOOELE             UT   MESONET

            LAKE POINT I-80 UT9 4248 FT

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
521 PM MDT THU JUN 6 2019

UTZ004-014-015-517-070000-
Sanpete/Sevier Valleys UT-Central and Southwest Mountains UT-
Southern Wasatch Front UT-West Central Utah UT-
521 PM MDT THU JUN 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL SANPETE...
NORTHEASTERN MILLARD AND SOUTHEASTERN JUAB COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
MDT...

At 521 PM MDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Scipio...moving northeast at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Scipio, Yuba Lake State Park and Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches, take shelter in a sturdy building.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm is capable of producing a significant amount of hail. Hail
may accumulate on area roads resulting in dangerous travel
conditions.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM MDT for
central Utah.

LAT...LON 3907 11214 3925 11241 3963 11206 3941 11171
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 218DEG 22KT 3920 11217

Bonnette

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
522 PM MDT THU JUN 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W SUNDANCE            40.37N 111.59W
06/06/2019  M62 MPH          UTAH               UT   MESONET

            ARROWHEAD SUMMIT - SND 8250 FT

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
524 PM MDT THU JUN 6 2019

UTZ010-013-070015-
San Rafael Swell UT-Wasatch Plateau/Book Cliffs UT-
524 PM MDT THU JUN 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL EMERY COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM MDT...

At 523 PM MDT, National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm 7 miles west of Green River...moving northeast at
20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible.

Locations impacted include...
Green River and Elgin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If threatening weather approaches, take shelter in a sturdy building.

Strong winds with these storms may occur well ahead of any rain or
lightning. Do not wait for the sound of thunder before taking cover.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY inside a sturdy structure and stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3896 11005 3899 11011 3897 11015 3894 11016
      3892 11032 3907 11043 3942 11008 3934 11003
      3928 11008 3923 11006 3916 11012 3900 11015
      3899 11005 3896 11001
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 240DEG 18KT 3904 11030

Church

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