Tornado Warning 53, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1157 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Line of convection across the eastern Permian Basin will shift
across most of the West Central Texas terminals overnight. Will
use latest radar trends for the first guess timing on these
storms. Storms should exit to the east by sunrise, and leave
gusty southwest winds for the daylight hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 611 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

We continue to monitor the convection across the Permian Basin
that is slowly working its way east towards West Central Texas.
Latest hi-res models shift the convection east into the area, but
it may be the early morning hours before the convection reaches
many of the terminal location. Will use that timing for now, and
see if the convection gets a bigger push from convective outflows.
Otherwise, gusty south and southeast winds this evening will
continue, shifting to the west as the pacific front moves through
the area on Tuesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)

.Particularly Dangerous Situation...

All model indicators point to a particularly dangerous situation
developing, across much of West Central Texas, this afternoon and
tonight. With model forecast CAPEs in 5000 J/kg range and bulk
shear in range of 45 to 55 knots, conditions are most favorable
for very large hail, damaging winds, and strong tornadoes. The
Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight much of West
Central Texas in a High or Enhanced risk area. The best indication
for timing is now through late tonight. Locations along and north
of a San Angelo to Brownwood are most at risk this evening. After
midnight, the severe thunderstorms threat will slowly diminish, as
the upper trough moves over Texas.

(Tuesday)

.Thunderstorms Ending...

As the Upper trough moves east, the potential for severe
thunderstorms will shift east of our area. By noon Tuesday, all
shower and thunderstorm activity will be east of West Central
Texas.

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)

.Dry with Rain Chances Returning...

With lots of tasks going on this afternoon, we did not make
significant changes to the long term forecast. After a day or two
of dry weather, another upper low to our west will move into a
position near the Four Corners region of CONUS. This position will
produce southwest flow aloft over Texas. Minor disturbances
embedded in the flow aloft may initiate mainly afternoon and
evening thunderstorms, beginning Wednesday night and continuing
through Friday night. Currently, this holiday weekend looks dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 61  78  59  89 /  80  20   0  10
San Angelo 	 60  82  59  91 /  60  10   0  10
Junction 	 65  85  63  91 /  40  20   0   0
Brownwood 	 64  80  62  87 /  70  40   0   0
Sweetwater 	 59  76  59  88 /  80   0   0  10
Ozona      	 59  82  61  88 /  50   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for Brown-Callahan-Coke-
Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-Irion-Jones-Kimble-Mason-
McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Schleicher-Shackelford-
Sterling-Sutton-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
257 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-212000-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
257 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and into tonight
across all of West Central Texas. Very large hail, strong
tornadoes, and damaging winds are the primary hazards.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Additional severe thunderstorms are possible early Tuesday
morning mainly across the eastern half of West Central Texas. The
main hazards are large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this afternoon.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1142 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

TXZ076-210515-
Crockett TX-
1142 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CROCKETT COUNTY
UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

At 1141 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles southwest of Rankin to 10 miles
southeast of Bakersfield. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Crockett County, including the following locations... I-10 Near The
Crockett-Pecos County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3108 10223 3108 10170 3069 10177 3070 10181
      3076 10184 3086 10185 3089 10189 3092 10187
      3099 10199 3098 10201 3100 10204 3099 10209
      3101 10219 3100 10219 3103 10220 3105 10225
TIME...MOT...LOC 0441Z 268DEG 35KT 3110 10204 3077 10218

PO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1215 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

TXZ049-054-098-099-113-127-210615-
Haskell TX-Throckmorton TX-Fisher TX-Nolan TX-Jones TX-Taylor TX-
1215 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HASKELL...JONES...NORTHERN
NOLAN...FISHER...NORTHWESTERN TAYLOR AND NORTHWESTERN THROCKMORTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM CDT...

At 1214 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles north of Old Glory to near Colorado
City. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Rochester and Wastella around 1230 AM CDT.
  Roscoe and O'brien around 1235 AM CDT.
  Weinert around 1245 AM CDT.
  Sweetwater around 1250 AM CDT.
  Trent and Millers Creek Reservoir around 110 AM CDT.
  Merkel and Noodle around 115 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Funston, The
Intersection Of Us-
180 And Ranch Road 126, Hitson, Tuxedo, Gannon, Lake Sweetwater,
Busby, Capitola, Us-277 Near The Haskell-Knox County Line and Jud.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for west central
Texas.

LAT...LON 3240 10004 3235 10066 3296 10065 3296 9999
      3340 9999 3340 9930 3339 9930
TIME...MOT...LOC 0514Z 256DEG 38KT 3329 10008 3240 10079

SJH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1218 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

TXZ076-210545-
Crockett TX-
1218 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CROCKETT COUNTY
UNTIL 1245 AM CDT...

At 1217 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Iraan, or 19 miles north of Sheffield, moving east at
45 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central
Crockett County, including the following locations... Ft Lancaster,
The Intersection Of I-10 And Highway 290 and I-10 Near The
Crockett-Pecos County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3108 10199 3108 10142 3063 10147 3063 10166
      3066 10177 3068 10178 3070 10181 3075 10182
      3076 10184 3081 10183 3086 10185 3089 10189
      3092 10187 3098 10198 3099 10201
TIME...MOT...LOC 0517Z 252DEG 53KT 3096 10175

PO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
118 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

TXZ076-210700-
Crockett TX-
118 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CROCKETT COUNTY
UNTIL 200 AM CDT...

At 118 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Sheffield, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Crockett County, including the following locations... Ft Lancaster,
The Intersection Of I-10 And Highway 405, The Intersection Of I-10
And Highway 290 and I-10 Near The Crockett-Pecos County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for west central
Texas.

LAT...LON 3065 10169 3066 10177 3068 10178 3070 10181
      3075 10182 3077 10184 3106 10149 3077 10121
      3062 10165
TIME...MOT...LOC 0618Z 237DEG 46KT 3068 10180

SJH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
123 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

TXZ064-071-072-076-077-210645-
Irion TX-Schleicher TX-Tom Green TX-Crockett TX-Sterling TX-
123 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SCHLEICHER...
SOUTHWESTERN STERLING...CENTRAL TOM GREEN...NORTHEASTERN CROCKETT AND
IRION COUNTIES UNTIL 145 AM CDT...

At 122 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 14 miles northwest of Arden to near Barnhart.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Arden around 135 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Us-
190 Near The Crockett-
Sutton County Line, The Intersection Of Us 190 And Highway 163 and
Us-67 Near The Irion-Tom Green County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for west central
Texas.

LAT...LON 3092 10132 3108 10131 3108 10127 3158 10126
      3156 10058 3088 10073
TIME...MOT...LOC 0622Z 268DEG 51KT 3153 10099 3108 10113

PO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
126 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

TXZ049-054-113-114-127-128-210715-
Fisher TX-Shackelford TX-Callahan TX-Nolan TX-Jones TX-Taylor TX-
126 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CALLAHAN...JONES...EASTERN
NOLAN...SHACKELFORD...SOUTHEASTERN FISHER AND TAYLOR COUNTIES UNTIL
215 AM CDT...

At 125 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking thunderstorms along a line
extending from 8 miles east of Lake Stamford Marina to near Happy
Valley. Movement was east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Tuscola and Lawn around 155 AM CDT.
  Oplin around 210 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Funston, Impact, The
Intersection Of Us-
180 And Ranch Road 126, Lake Abilene, Mccarty Lake, Camp Tonkawa,
Shep, Lake Fort Phantom Hill, Us-283 Near The Callahan-
Shackelford County Line and Lake Sweetwater.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for west central
Texas.

LAT...LON 3292 9910 3266 9910 3211 9932 3211 10055
      3293 10015
TIME...MOT...LOC 0625Z 271DEG 39KT 3304 9948 3212 10015

SJH