Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1231 AM CDT Wed Mar 13 2019

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

The primary immediate concern is with the line of strong to
severe thunderstorms moving quickly east across the western part
of our forecast area. The expected time of arrival at our TAF
sites is: 06Z at KSJT, 0630Z at KABI and KSOA, 08Z at KBBD,
and shortly after 0830Z at KJCT. Gusty south to southeast winds
will continue ahead of this line of storms. With the arrival of
the leading edge of the line of storms, strong, gusty west winds
are expected. Gusts in excess of 45 mph possible.

Temporary reductions in visibilities and ceilings are also
expected with the heavy rain accompanying the storms. After
passage of the convection, wind speeds will decrease late
tonight and early Wednesday morning.

Clearing skies are expected prior to mid-morning Wednesday.
Strong, gusty southwest winds will develop around mid-morning
Wednesday and continue through early evening. The higher sustained
speeds and gusts are expected at KABI and KSJT. Gusts are expected
to exceed 40 knots at KABI more frequently than at KSJT. West
winds will decrease Wednesday night area wide, but still remain
gusty at KABI and KSJT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 710 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Aviation weather concerns are highlighted by gusty south to
southeast winds this evening/early tonight; wind gusts and
weather hazards with a fast moving squall line during the
overnight hours; and strong, gusty southwest winds which
are expected from mid-morning through the early evening
hours on Wednesday.

This evening and early tonight, occasional gusts 30-35 knots
are expected at KABI and KSJT, with south to southeast winds.
For our southern terminals, occasional gusts to around 30 knots
are expected. Patchy low cloud development is expected in the
03Z to 06Z time frame, and may occasionally affect our TAF
sites with MVFR ceilings.

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to move
quickly east across West Central Texas during the overnight
hours. Approximate times of arrival at our TAF sites are:
06Z at KSJT and KSOA, 07Z at KABI, 08Z at KBBD, and 08Z-09Z at
KJCT. The primary hazard will be strong winds with the arrival of
the line of storms. The potential exists for gusts to exceed 50
knots. Temporary reductions in visibilities and ceilings should
also occur with the heavy rain accompanying the storms. Winds will
shift to the west-southwest with passage of the line of storms.

Clearing skies are expected prior to mid-morning Wednesday.
Strong, gusty southwest winds will develop around mid-morning
Wednesday and continue through early evening. The higher sustained
speeds and gusts are expected at KABI and KSJT. Gusts are expected
to exceed 40 knots at KABI more frequently than at KSJT.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight)
.Severe Thunderstorms and Possible Flash Flooding...

Models remain consistent with this very strong storm system we've
been spotlighting, for the last several days. First, the Storm
Prediction Center has most of our counties in an Enhanced Risk area,
and the remaining counties in a Slight Risk area, for tonight. The
main hazards are damaging winds and deadly lightning; however,
there's also a tornado threat. Models continue to indicate a squall
line will form to our west and the move across our counties. The
best timing, for this squall line, appears to be, from around
midnight, for our western counties. By sunrise Wednesday, the squall
line will likely be east of most of our counties.

(Wednesday)
.Dangerous Wind...

Dangerous winds will develop, at the surface, as this upper system
drags a Pacific front across Texas Wednesday. We have replaced the
High Wind Watch with a High Wind Warning, which is in effect for
much of West Central Texas, from 10 AM CDT Wednesday morning to 10
PM CDT Wednesday evening. Wind from the southwest, at 30 to 40 mph
are possible, with gusts to 60 mph.

LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Tuesday)

Very strong winds will weaken Wednesday evening, with the high
wind warning expiring at 10 PM CDT. Southwest winds, however, will
continue at 20 to 30 mph through Wednesday night. A cold front
Thursday will then bring gusty northwest winds to the region,
ushering in another surge of colder air Thursday night and Friday.
A brief early freeze is possible Saturday and Sunday mornings
across the Big Country and Concho Valley, with lighter winds and a
dry atmosphere. Rain is not expected Wednesday night into early
next week, although mid/upper cloudiness will affect the region
Saturday and Sunday, as an upper shortwave moves across.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 46  56  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 	 45  60  33  53 /   0   0   0   0
Junction 	 45  64  35  56 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood 	 45  59  34  52 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater 	 45  56  33  50 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona      	 44  60  34  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
evening for Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Crockett-Fisher-Haskell-
Irion-Jones-Nolan-Runnels-Schleicher-Shackelford-Sterling-Taylor-
Throckmorton-Tom Green.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
253 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-132000-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
253 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A squall line will develop late this evening and move across West
Central Texas during the overnight hours. Some storms will be
severe. The main threats will be damaging winds, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes. Heavy rainfall toward morning may produce
flash flooding across the northeast part of the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Strong winds and patchy blowing dust will develop Wednesday
afternoon along and west of an Sonora to Cross Plains line. A High
Wind Warning is in effect from 10 AM to 10 PM Wednesday for
southwest winds of 35 to 40 mph, with possible gusts to 60 mph.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening and tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
702 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-113-127-130400-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Jones-Taylor-
Including the cities of ROTAN, ROBY, SWEETWATER, STERLING CITY,
ROBERT LEE, BRONTE, BALLINGER, WINTERS, MERTZON, SAN ANGELO,
EDEN, OZONA, ELDORADO, SONORA, HASKELL, STAMFORD, ANSON, HAMLIN,
and ABILENE
702 PM CDT Tue Mar 12 2019

...STRONG WINDS GUSTS THIS EVENING...

Strong south to southeast winds gusting to 45 mph at times will
affect western portions of the Big Country, Concho Valley and
northern Edwards Plateau through late evening. Some of the cities
that will be affected by the strong wind gusts will be Haskell,
Abilene, Sweetwater, San Angelo and Ozona. High profile vehicles
traveling on west-east roadways such as Interstate 20, Highway 87,
Highway 67 and Interstate 10 should be alert for strong
crosswinds this evening. Unsecured lightweight objects may also
become airborne hazards.

24

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