Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
242 AM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

At 2 am, radar imagery showed a cluster of strong to severe
thunderstorms over Stonewall County, while isolated storms were
starting to develop in Pecos and Crane counties. Hi-res model
guidance continues to suggest that these storms will eventually
merge into a line which will move into our western counties by
around 3 am as the short-wave trough axis moves northeast into the
Texas Panhandle. This line will then move east through much of the
forecast area through 9 or 10 am. Hi-res models also suggest that
the I-10 corridor may be spared from much of the thunderstorm
activity, as our central and especially northern counties get the
brunt of the thunderstorm line. Currently, our western counties have
1000-1500 J/KG of MU CAPE and 40 kt of 0-6 km shear, and this is not
expected to change much through the morning hours. Thus, there
remains a threat of strong to severe thunderstorms across the
forecast area through the mid morning hours. SPC still has our
counties west of a Brownwood to Junction line in a slight risk for
severe weather through 7 am, and then the counties east of that line
in a slight risk after 7 am. Main threats from the storms are
damaging winds and large hail, although an isolated tornado cannot
be ruled out.

After 10 am or so, the rest of the day will likely be dry across our
region, although there remains a small chance of an isolated
thunderstorm/shower or two over our eastern counties into the
evening hours as another short-wave trough moves south of the
region. Skies will at least partially clear as well from west to
east, allowing temperatures to rise into the low 80s this afternoon.
Tonight, we're forecasting lows in the upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

The secondary portion of the upper trough will move across
Sunday...then slow down and deepen over Northeast Texas Sunday
night. Will continue mention of a few showers over southeast zones
from Junction...Brady...to Brownwood and San Saba Sunday and a
few showers across Haskell and Throckmorton counties Sunday night
in association with this.

It will be still warm Sunday with highs near 80....along with
southwest winds and partly cloudy skies. A weak cold front move
into the Big Country late Sunday afternoon and through the region
Sunday night. This will have little affect on temperatures
Monday...with highs again near 80.

Temperatures will continue to warm into the lower 90s Tuesday and
Wednesday as 850 MB thermal trough move in. This will be helps by
strong downslope west winds Wednesday as a surface low moves
through Kansas. A cold front Thursday will keep highs in the 70s
through Friday. The next chance of rain appears to be Saturday as
an upper through moves through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 80  59  82  55 /  50   5  10  10
San Angelo 	 84  58  83  54 /  20   5   5   5
Junction 	 82  59  82  55 /  50  20  20   5
Brownwood 	 80  59  80  54 /  70  20  30  10
Sweetwater 	 80  59  80  54 /  20   5  10   5
Ozona      	 83  58  82  54 /  10  10   5   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

99/04

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
206 AM CDT SAT APR 6 2019

TXZ098-060745-
Haskell TX-
206 AM CDT SAT APR 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HASKELL COUNTY UNTIL 245 AM
CDT...

At 205 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near O'brien to near Rule. Movement was east at
25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Rochester around 210 AM CDT.
  O'brien around 215 AM CDT.
  Haskell around 225 AM CDT.
  Weinert around 230 AM CDT.
  Irby around 240 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Jud, Us-
277 Near The Haskell-Knox County Line and Us-380 Near The Haskell-
Stonewall County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3305 9949 3303 9999 3339 9999 3340 9950
TIME...MOT...LOC 0705Z 255DEG 35KT 3339 9994 3318 9993

PO