Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS San Angelo, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
341 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Somewhat disorganized clusters of thunderstorms are affecting
areas north of Interstate 10 early this morning. These storms,
with some embedded severe weather in the form of hail up to golf
ball size, and wind gusts of 60+ mph will continue moving east
across the rest of the area through the morning hours either as
these clusters, or as a merging segmented line of storms. Expect
the activity to move east and out of the area during the
afternoon hours. Skies should clear from west to east behind the
thunderstorms as well, allowing for some heating, with highs
getting into the mid to upper 80s. Tonight, we should see a break
from overnight low clouds, and lows will be somewhat cooler,
dropping into the mid 50s to near 60.

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Friday)

Sunday is still expected to be quiet with dry in place in the
lower levels, and zonal flow aloft. The one concern for Sunday
will be warmer temperatures. Highs could be as hot as mid 90s,
which would be warmer than the area has seen in some time.

The next upper level system quickly moves into the Intermountain
West Sunday night into Monday, putting west Texas back under
active southwest flow. The upper level low is expected to move
from the Great Basin area Sunday night, east into Colorado by
Tuesday morning, then pivot, and move north through the middle of
the week.

Low level moisture will quickly return to the area Sunday night,
and we could even see some isolated to scattered showers and
storms as early as Sunday night, mainly west of a
Throckmorton/Abilene/San Angelo line. Better chances move into the
area Monday and Monday night as active southwest flow moves over
the area and height falls increase instability. The GFS and ECMWF
are in fairly good agreement with the timing of the main upper
level trough axis moving through the area Monday night into
Tuesdaymorning, resulting the best chance for widespread
thunderstorm coverage coming Monday night. Much like today, expect
thunderstorms to move out of the area during the day Tuesday.

Wednesday through the end of the week, models keep us under
southwest flow between ridging to the east, and western troughing.
Will keep slight chance PoPs in at times, mainly for western
areas, and temperatures will average near or slightly warmer than
normal for this time of the year.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 84  56  86  69 /  60   0   0  10
San Angelo 	 86  56  90  68 /  50   0   0  10
Junction 	 86  59  90  69 /  60   0   5  10
Brownwood 	 83  56  87  67 /  70   0   0  10
Sweetwater 	 83  56  86  68 /  40   0   0  20
Ozona      	 84  55  87  68 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
407 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-190915-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
407 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms will affect areas mainly north of
Interstate 10 through early afternoon today. Large hail, damaging
wind gusts, isolated tornadoes, and locally heavy rainfall
leading to flash flooding will all be possible with these storms.
In addition, deadly cloud to ground lightning will be possible
with all these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon
into Monday night. The main hazards will be large hail, damaging
winds, and deadly cloud to ground lightning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
935 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 AM     TORNADO          2 ESE TANKERSLEY        31.34N 100.62W
05/18/2019                   TOM GREEN          TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            A BUILDING WAS COLLAPSED AT BOYS RANCH.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
940 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0536 AM     TORNADO          3 ESE TANKERSLEY        31.33N 100.61W
05/18/2019                   TOM GREEN          TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ROOFS WERE DAMAGED AT SEVERAL HOMES IN THE
            DOVE CREEK SUBDIVISION.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
943 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 AM     TORNADO          3 N SAN ANGELO          31.49N 100.45W
05/18/2019                   TOM GREEN          TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            DAMAGE WAS REPORTED TO NUMEROUS HOMES ON THE
            NORTH SIDE OF SAN ANGELO.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
952 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 AM     TORNADO          ABILENE                 32.44N 99.74W
05/18/2019                   TAYLOR             TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DAMAGE TO NUMEROUS HOMES WAS REPORTED ON
            SOUTH 7TH STREET, SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN ABILENE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
954 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 AM     TORNADO          3 SW IMPACT             32.47N 99.78W
05/18/2019                   TAYLOR             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ROOFS WERE BLOWN OFF HOMES, AND TREES ARE
            DOWN ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF ABILENE.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
955 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

TXZ066-072-073-139-181530-
Runnels TX-Tom Green TX-Coleman TX-Concho TX-
955 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COLEMAN...
SOUTHEASTERN TOM GREEN...SOUTHEASTERN RUNNELS AND NORTHWESTERN CONCHO
COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 AM CDT...

At 953 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Leaday to 10 miles south of Vancourt.
Movement was northeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Leaday and Ivie Reservoir Near Concho Park Marina around 1000 AM
  CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include The Intersection Of
Ranch Road 1929 And Ranch Road 2134, Vick, The Intersection Of Us-
83 And Ranch Road 765, Us-83 Near The Concho-
Runnels County Line and The Intersection Of Us-
83 And Ranch Road 1929.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for west central
Texas. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 500 PM CDT for
west central Texas.

LAT...LON 3161 9954 3114 9996 3113 10027 3160 10000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1453Z 261DEG 22KT 3162 9972 3120 10013

PO