Tornado Warning 79, NWS Shreveport, LA

097 
WWUS54 KSHV 210119
SVSSHV

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
819 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

TXC365-210145-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0079.000000T0000Z-191021T0145Z/
Panola TX-
819 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN PANOLA COUNTY...
        
At 818 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located over Deberry, or 12 
miles northeast of Carthage, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. Trees and power lines have been 
         downed on Highway 149 between Beckville and Carthage with 
         this storm. 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Panola County, including the following locations...
Midyett.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3239 9407 3239 9404 3223 9404 3220 9420
      3232 9426
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 245DEG 29KT 3227 9417 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...1.25IN

$$

15

054 
WWUS54 KSHV 210140
SVSSHV

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
840 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

TXC365-210150-
/O.EXP.KSHV.TO.W.0079.000000T0000Z-191021T0145Z/
Panola TX-
840 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN PANOLA COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
845 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for northwestern
Louisiana...and northeastern Texas.

LAT...LON 3239 9407 3239 9404 3223 9404 3220 9420
      3232 9426
TIME...MOT...LOC 0140Z 245DEG 19KT 3232 9404 

$$

15

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
758 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

.UPDATE...
See below for 21/00z Aviation Discussion.

An isolated supercell has developed over East Texas in an area of
0-1 km SRH of about 200 m2/s2. Latest mesoanalysis combined with
the 00z SHV raob indicates the low-level shear decreases somewhat
with eastward extent. However, a tornado threat will likely
persist with this storm. Additional convection is likely,
especially after midnight, as the much-advertised QLCS develops
over Oklahoma and Texas.

Text products have been updated to reflect the issuance of Tornado
Watch 676 through 07z and for an update to PoP grids through 03z
based on latest radar trends.

CN

&&

.AVIATION...
For the 21/00z TAFs, isolated strong to severe convection will
continue along the Interstate 20 corridor of Louisiana and East
Texas early in the period, but this activity should diminish by
21/06z. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms should begin
moving from northwest to southeast across the area just after
21/06z ahead of a cold front. All TAF sites will be affected by
the line of storms. By 21/12z, the leading edge of the storms
should be near a line from KELD, to KSHV, to near KLFK. Variable
visibilities and ceilings will likely lead to a mix of flight
conditions between MVFR and LIFR while the storms are ongoing.
Behind the storms, skies should rapidly clear as northwesterly
winds usher considerable drier air into the region. VFR conditions
should return to all TAF sites by the end of the period.

CN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday Night/

Despite an abundance of low clouds and patchy fog this morning,
temperatures have climbed well into the 80s this afternoon. Some
areas along and south of I-20 have even managed the upper 80s for
highs as a warm front has shifted north today. In addition, dew
points have also surged into the lower 70s across much of these
same areas. This is all occurring ahead of a cold front which is
primed to move into our NW zones around midnight and quickly shift
SE across the region overnight through Monday morning, setting the
stage for a potential severe weather event across our entire
four-state region. Although low-level instability may initially
decrease slightly after sunset, expect it to increase once again
with the approaching cold front as MUCAPE values spike toward the
2000-2500 J/kg range overnight and perhaps a bit higher in some
locations. Add in the increasing low-level jet in the range of
50-60 kts and veering wind profiles with increasing wind shear, a
very robust line of convection will develop and spread SE toward
the I-30 corridor where an Enhanced Risk of severe weather is
noted in the SPC Day 1 Outlook. This line will continue on to the
SE across the remainder of the region with a primary damaging wind
threat coupled with the lower threats of large hail and isolated
tornadoes, which would likely be embedded within the evolving
QLCS. Rainfall amounts will average near an inch across the region
with isolated higher amounts possible over the next 24 hours.

The line of convection should exit the region by early to mid
afternoon on Monday with cooler and drier spilling south across
the region. Highs on Monday afternoon will range through the 70s
while overnight lows will fall into the 40s to near 50 degrees in
wake of the cold front on Monday night under clear skies and light
NW winds.

/19/

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday Night/

A departing trough of low pressure extending from the Great Lakes
into the Lower Miss Valley on Tuesday will result in milder
temperatures and drier conditions through at least Wednesday. By
Thursday, the westerlies will remain rather active as yet another
trough of low pressure moves out of the Intermountain West and into
the Great Plains. Low level moisture should increase quickly Wed
Night into Thu with perhaps some diurnally driven isolated to
scattered convection possible across our western half on Thursday
and then chance pops areawide Thu Night into Friday.

There continues to be considerable discrepancies concerning how this
late week trough will evolve with the ECMWF/Canadian solutions
suggesting the base of the trough will cut itself off from the
westerlies on Friday in the lee of the Southern Rockies while the
more progressive GFS suggests the trough will be much more open and
quickly brings an end to the rainfall across our area on Friday. The
differing solutions remain dug-in in regards to the above features
so tried to blend the varying solutions which would result in rain
chances lingering at least into the first half of Saturday.
Regardless, look for much cooler conditions with a frontal passage
sometime late Thursday or Friday with a cool upcoming and possible
wet first half of next weekend.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  77  50  74 /  80  80   0   0
MLU  71  77  50  74 /  40  90  10   0
DEQ  60  73  41  72 /  90  20   0   0
TXK  64  73  46  72 /  90  50   0   0
ELD  68  76  46  72 /  70  80   0   0
TYR  63  74  48  74 /  90  40   0   0
GGG  66  74  47  73 /  80  50   0   0
LFK  71  78  50  77 /  70  80   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

09/15

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1224 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

ARZ073-LAZ004>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ152-153-165>167-211200-
Union-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-
Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1224 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana and east
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible across the region late this afternoon into the overnight
hours. No severe weather is expected through tonight at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will become likely
Monday across the region with some of these storms possibly
containing large hail and damaging thunderstorm wind gusts. An
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. This activity should move
south and east of the region late Monday afternoon or Monday
Evening.

Additional strong thunderstorms will be possible across the region
sometime late Thursday or Friday of the upcoming work week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters should not be needed tonight but
will likely become needed on Monday.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072-LAZ001>003-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>151-211200-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-McCurtain-Red River-Bowie-Franklin-
Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-
Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
1224 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas, northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma and northeast
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Late tonight, strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop across North Texas and Eastern Oklahoma and move southeast
into the Middle Red River Valley of Northeast Texas, Southeast
Oklahoma and Southwest Arkansas. These storms will have the
capability of producing strong and damaging wind gusts, large hail
and isolated tornadoes. This threat will move southeast through
the predawn hours Monday Morning and could possibly move into
extreme Northwest Louisiana near sunrise. Locally heavy rainfall
could also result in a flash flooding concern after midnight
across the northern third of Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma
and Southwest Arkansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

The severe weather threat should shift south and east of the
region Monday Morning.

Additional strong thunderstorms will be possible across the region
sometime late Thursday or Friday of the upcoming work week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will likely be needed late tonight.

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
602 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

TXZ136-149-150-202345-
Cherokee TX-Smith TX-Rusk TX-
602 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SMITH...NORTHWESTERN
RUSK AND NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

At 602 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm just
east of Jacksonville, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Half inch to dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville, Whitehouse, Overton, Troup, New London, Arp,
Joinerville, Mixon, Turnertown, New Summerfield, New Chapel Hill,
Gallatin and Concord.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3187 9517 3192 9533 3240 9511 3230 9476
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 210DEG 31KT 3196 9521

15

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
629 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

LAZ005-006-013-014-210015-
Lincoln LA-Ouachita LA-Union LA-Jackson LA-
629 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JACKSON...
SOUTHEASTERN UNION...NORTHWESTERN OUACHITA AND EASTERN LINCOLN
PARISHES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 629 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles northeast of Jonesboro to 16 miles
southeast of Ruston. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ruston, Claiborne, Choudrant, Chatham, Eros, Downsville, D Arbonne,
Calhoun, Loch Lomon, Folksville, Cheniere, Rocky Branch, Mineral
Springs, Caderville and Eureka.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3274 9250 3271 9211 3231 9240 3233 9268
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 215DEG 33KT 3236 9263 3236 9244

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
725 PM CDT SUN OCT 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW HENDERSON         32.12N 94.81W
10/20/2019                   RUSK               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ACROSS
            FM225.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
728 PM CDT SUN OCT 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 SSW HENDERSON         32.04N 94.87W
10/20/2019                   RUSK               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE TOPS BLOWN OUT.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
745 PM CDT SUN OCT 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0743 PM     TORNADO          7 SSW BECKVILLE         32.15N 94.50W
10/20/2019                   PANOLA             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 79 WITH MULTIPLE POWER
            FLASHES REPORTED ONGOING.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
749 PM CDT SUN OCT 20 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0748 PM     TORNADO          8 SSW BECKVILLE         32.15N 94.53W
10/20/2019                   PANOLA             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN.

&&

AS