Tornado Warning 54, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
441 AM CDT Thu May 9 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Today through Friday/

Moderate to heavy downpours continue across extreme East Texas
into portions of Northwest Louisiana and South Central Arkansas
early this morning. While this convection will continue to push
north and east, have decided to extend the current FFA through
Noon for portions of North Central Louisiana and South Central
Arkansas and expand this watch further south to encompass the
excessive heavy rainfall currently falling across West Central
Louisiana expected to move into our extreme southeast zones closer
to sunrise. Likewise, counties and parishes that were in the FFA
through 7 am to the west and northwest of the current convection
has been cancelled with this forecast package.

While we trimmed pops back to slight chance north to chance
variety to our south for this afternoon, will need to watch for
the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms late today/this
evening, especially across our southern and eastern half as a
cold front moves into our region from the north and west. Strong
to severe thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of this
cold front with large hail and damaging wind gusts the main
threats but storm coverage does not appear to be significant
enough to warrant an extension to the Flash Flood Watch beyond
noon today.

All that changes late tonight into Friday however as the cold
front is expected to stall across our southeast zones during the
day with a persistent low level jet continuing to pump low level
moisture into the region and a fairly significant disturbance
moving east northeastward out of SE TX into our southern and
eastern zones during the day. For this reason, have posted another
Flash Flood Watch roughly along and south of a line from
Mineola...Gilmer and Jefferson Texas to Magnolia and El Dorado
Arkansas which includes all of Northern Louisiana as well, making
it valid from 7 AM Friday through 7 PM Saturday. Additional
rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches will be possible across this
area with isolated higher amounts.

Thanks for the coordination efforts this morning
WPC/HGX/FWD/LZK/JAN and LCH.

13

.LONG TERM.../Friday night through Wednesday night/

The surface cold front will be just to the South of the cwa Friday
evening with decent NE sfc winds slacking and veering to ENE toward
daybreak. The 850mb boundary remains inverted off the Gulf and
draped across NW LA into Saturday with most of the heaviest activity
funneling in along and especially South of the boundary. The super
moist SW flow aloft will continue to usher in copious amount of
moisture producing pockets of heavy rainfall for us during much of
Saturday. The WPC excessive rainfall outlook for day 3 is Moderate
risk for deep E TX into NW LA and the new FFA covers this through
the day. Finally, this inverted trough extending inland over our
area will ease off the East just enough as the long awaited surface
High pressure noses from the North late in the weekend.

As the sfc high builds Southeastward, the accompanying base of the
deepening Northern trough over the nation,s mid section and MS river
valley which will keep us dry for a couple of days and perhaps more.
The models differ slightly, but the next cut off low in the Southern
stream has a tough time under a big ridge over the NW U.S. and the
low fills and weakens. The moist SW flow aloft may be more to our
South next time with a bit more of a drier zonal flow aloft. The GFS
and Euro vary on QPF signal and really we never look to heavy
anyway, but we'll see subsequent runs and hope for this drier
scenario. Certainly much better news for the swollen rivers systems
cresting from short term rainfall for us during next week.

/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  63  70  63 /  60  50  70  60
MLU  83  66  73  64 /  70  60  80  60
DEQ  79  53  67  57 /  20  20  30  70
TXK  81  58  66  59 /  20  30  50  70
ELD  82  61  67  60 /  60  40  60  60
TYR  79  57  67  61 /  20  40  70  70
GGG  80  59  68  61 /  20  40  70  70
LFK  82  66  73  65 /  60  80  80  70

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday evening
     for ARZ072-073.

     Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for ARZ072-073.

LA...Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday evening
     for LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

     Flash Flood Watch until noon CDT today for LAZ003>006-011>014-
     018>022.

OK...None.
TX...Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday evening
     for TXZ124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

13/24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
733 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-091100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-
Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-
Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-
733 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 7 AM CDT Thursday morning.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible through the
overnight hours. These storms may produce damaging winds, large
hail, isolated tornadoes, and flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Thunderstorms will continue through Thursday as a cold front moves
across the area, and a few storms could be severe. A brief
reprieve from heavy rainfall will come late Thursday, but heavy
rainfall will return Friday through Sunday. Flash flooding will be
possible during this timeframe, and additional Flash Flood Watches
will likely be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators and storm spotters may be needed tonight through midday
Thursday.

LAZ017>022-TXZ165>167-091100-
Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Angelina-
San Augustine-
733 PM CDT Wed May 8 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Louisiana, northwest Louisiana and east Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible through the
overnight hours. These storms may produce damaging winds, large
hail, isolated tornadoes, and isolated flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Thunderstorms will continue through Thursday as a cold front moves
across the area, and a few storms could be severe. A brief
reprieve from heavy rainfall will come late Thursday, but heavy
rainfall will return Friday through Sunday. Flash flooding will be
possible during this timeframe, and additional Flash Flood Watches
will likely be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators and storm spotters may be needed tonight through midday
Thursday.

09

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
506 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 SW GREENWOOD          32.37N 94.04W
05/09/2019                   CADDO              LA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LIVE NEWS REPORTS SHOW FLOODED STREETS AND
            PARKING LOTS IN BETHANY.

&&

ABD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
512 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 NE SCOTTSVILLE        32.54N 94.23W
05/09/2019                   HARRISON           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT IS REPORTING NUMEROUS CALLS
            COMING IN REGARDING FLASH FLOODING NEARLY
            COUNTY WIDE.

&&

ABD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
513 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 N BOSSIER CITY        32.59N 93.73W
05/09/2019                   BOSSIER            LA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            WATER OVER ROADWAYS IN THE COLONY
            SUBDIVISION.

&&

MDV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
522 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0318 AM     FLASH FLOOD      10 SSW WASKOM           32.34N 94.11W
05/09/2019                   PANOLA             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS NEARLY EVERY COUNTY
            ROAD ALONG 79N FROM DE BERRY TO BETHANY IS
            FLOODED. FLOODING ALSO INCLUDES PORTIONS OF
            30 TO 9, AND MANY OTHER COUNTY ROADS IN THAT
            AREA.

&&

ABD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
536 AM CDT THU MAY 9 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 AM     FLASH FLOOD      6 NNE EASTWOOD          32.64N 93.51W
05/09/2019                   BOSSIER            LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS VARIOUS FLOODED
            ROADWAYS FROM BELLEVUE, DOWN TO HAUGHTON.
            ALSO REPORTS SCATTERED CALLS FROM ACROSS THE
            PARISH REGARDING FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

ABD

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