Special Weather Statement, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
622 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

.AVIATION...

MVFR/IFR conditions across the TAF sites this morning. Low flight
categories expected over the next several hours as low clouds
will remain over the TAF sites ahead and along a cold front
sweeping across the region during the period. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop along the front as well, which will
also result in MVFR/IFR and possibly LIFR conditions. Gusty
southerly winds expected ahead of the front with gusty northwest
winds post FROPA. Ceilings will begin to rise back into VFR
categories from west to east during the day as drier and cooler
air move in behind the front. /20/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 447 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2019/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Sunday Night/

Scattered light showers continue to show up on radar again this
morning, but mainly across portions of East Texas, North
Louisiana, and South Arkansas. This activity may continue for the
next several hours, but much heavier rain will move into the
region by mid morning.

A sfc low across Western Nebraska will continue to eject
northeastward across the Northern Plains this morning. Its
trailing cold front, currently located across the Southern Plains just
east of the Interstate 35 corridor, will move southeastward into
into the northwestern portions of our region over the next few
hours. Showers and thunderstorms are starting to develop along
this boundary this morning and should continue to increase in
coverage along and ahead of the front with a few strong to
marginally severe storms possibly encroaching on our extreme NW
counties with a strengthening line of convection by mid morning.
Rain chances will increase from west to east today as the line of
storms along the cold front sweep through the region during most
of the day time hours. The Storm Prediction Center continues to
highlight a Slight Risk for severe weather with this frontal
boundary as it moves through the region. Although lapse rates and
instability will be marginal with this event, wind shear will be
favorable along with decent low-level moisture to yield an
environment for a few isolated tornadoes. Damaging winds will also
be possible as a strong line of showers and thunderstorms develop
along the front as it moves through the region.

The front should clear the region by this evening, with drier and
cooler conditions to follow as northwest flow aloft settles over
the region. Afternoon highs on Sunday will remain in the 50s
across most of the region with lows Sunday night/Monday morning in
in the 30s. /20/

LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday Night/

Look for northwest flow aloft to prevail across the Lower Miss River
Valley into much of the Southern Plains in the wake of a large upper
level trough across the Mid Atlantic to begin the upcoming work
week. This will be a dry flow despite weak cold air advection
remaining in place in the wake of the frontal boundary that comes
through the region tonight. Sfc ridging will remain to our west
during the day but should move ovhd Monday Night resulting in likely
our coolest night of the week with near freezing temperatures across
much of the region.

Upper ridging across the Intermountain West, something we have not
talked about much recently, will flatten in response to a weak
clipper trough across the Upper Midwest for Tue that will drag a
weak frontal boundary south with it for Tue Night but the boundary
will serve little more than a weak wind shift. Upper ridging will
once again dominate the Southern Plains for midweek as our next
weather maker moves into the Intermountain West. This system ejects
out into the Central and Southern Plains on Thu and with returning
low level moisture ahead of the trough, rain chances will begin to
ramp up across at least the western half of our region Thu. Rain and
a few thunderstorms will be possible areawide Thu Night before the
trough moves east of our region on Friday. There continues to be
some temporal discrepancies concerning the trough's arrival late next
week but the slower EC has sped up a little to the faster GFS timing
compared to this time yesterday and as a result, will continue to
advertise a dry Friday into next weekend.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  44  57  36 /  90   0   0   0
MLU  77  46  60  36 /  90  30   0   0
DEQ  72  37  52  30 /  90   0   0   0
TXK  72  41  55  33 /  90   0   0   0
ELD  72  42  55  32 /  90  10   0   0
TYR  74  42  57  35 /  90   0   0   0
GGG  74  42  57  35 /  90   0   0   0
LFK  77  45  61  38 /  90   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

&&

20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
543 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-011200-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
543 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today across the
entire Four State Region ahead of a cold front that will be
pushing through the region later today into tonight. Initially,
any severe thunderstorms will be mostly a hail and or damaging
wind producer but as we move into the late morning, afternoon
and evening hours, storms will encounter a very sheared
environment which could result in tornadoes. Brief and heavy
rainfall will likely accompany the strongest storms through
tonight as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

A drying trend will commence across the Four State Region Sunday
through Wednesday but showers and a few thunderstorms are back in
the forecast for Thursday through Thursday Night with the arrival
of our next storm system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will likely be needed later today
for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms.

13

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