Special Weather Statement, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
411 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday Night/

A very moist and unstable airmass, combined with unseasonally stg
low lvl shear, with good potential for increasing tstms to begin
becmg svr. In addition to airmass tstm increases, an intense solid
line of east to west stg to svr tstms along cold front boundary
will slowly sag into the area. For this reason, a svr tstm watch
in effect for se OK, most of sw AR and extreme ne corner of TX.
Meanwhile, Flash Flood Watch for extreme northern sections of area
have been expanded e-se to include all of sw AR and extreme ne
corner of TX until 12z Monday although should be a marginal
flooding event. Southerly breeze 10 to 15 kts should gradually
decrease and increasing cloud cover should provide some relief
from heat indices in area rising to 100 to 105 with dewpoints into
mid to upper 70s.

After tonight, models are all over the place with nam dragging
cold front thru much of area, and dewppoints and overnight lows
falling well into the 60s. Other models moving front off to the
east with only outflow boundaries providing a temporary relief to
heat, and allowing at least for low pop redevelopment Monday and
Monday night, unlike nam./07/.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday night/
The forecast period begins with a broad ridge centered over the
eastern Gulf with a zonal flow across much of the CONUS. Between the
two features, locally, our area will be in a southwesterly flow with
a short wave progged to cross our area early in the day on Tuesday.

After the initial short wave on Tuesday, a more pronounced short
wave trough will slowly slide into the area and close off as a low
Wednesday through Friday. Forcing from this feature will provide a
high chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. With diurnally
driven storms potentially being slow moving under this feature, an
enhanced flash flooding threat is anticipated through this period
with thunderstorms. The feature will remain across the area into the
weekend, with low-level moisture only increasing, so anticipate the
chance of thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall to continue
across the area.

Temps will be a few degrees below normal Tuesday into Wednesday as
the initial trough moves across the area and the next trough closes
off as a low. High temps will be near normal (upper 80s to lower
90s) late this week into the weekend.

/04-Woodrum/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019/

AVIATION...
Isold showers have begun to develop across most of the area under
an very moist and unstable airmass. As mid lvl capping inversion
continues to weaken, tstm growth may occur very rapidly by mid
aftn. Main threat will be damaging wind gusts along with heavy
downpours and fqt lgt. Large hail expected within storms which may
or may not reach ground in stgr cells. Winds outside of storms
from s-ssw 10 to 15 kts with gusts over 20 kts expected. Cloud
cover outside of convection becmg scattered. In addition to tstm
cell development this aftn, a line of storms associated with an
elevated cold front, will move swd from OK and into nrn portions
of cwa btwn 24/01-03z, and move into ktxk around 24/04z, and
remaining terminals btwn 24/05-08z. Winds may gust 40 to 50 kts in
stgr storms. Storms should be over by around 24/12z with mvfr cigs
becmg vfr by or shortly before 24/18z fcst cycle. However,
convection may redevelop after the 24/18z time frame./07/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  87  73  87 /  70  30  30  30
MLU  73  88  72  89 /  80  40  20  40
DEQ  69  84  70  85 / 100  20  20  40
TXK  69  84  71  85 /  80  20  20  50
ELD  71  86  71  86 /  90  30  20  50
TYR  72  85  73  87 /  60  20  40  40
GGG  73  86  73  87 /  70  20  40  40
LFK  75  88  75  91 /  70  40  40  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for ARZ050-051-059.

     Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for ARZ060-061-070>073.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for LAZ006.

OK...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for OKZ077.

TX...Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for TXZ096-097.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
116 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

ARZ072-073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ108>112-124>126-136>138-
149>153-165>167-241830-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-
Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
116 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A frontal boundary will push southeast into the area this
afternoon into tonight, bringing two rounds of severe weather. The
first round, late this afternoon into the early evening hours will
bring the threat of damaging winds and large hail. The second
round, late this evening into the overnight hours will bring the
threat of damaging winds with embedded isolated tornadoes
possible. Localized flash flooding will be possible this evening
and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

An unsettled pattern will setup over the Four State Region for the
upcoming week. For the most part, daytime heating will lead to the
chance for showers and thunderstorms to remain in the forecast
through next weekend. Some of the stronger storms may produce
locally gusty winds and brief, heavy rainfall each day. Localized
flash flooding will be possible with slower moving storms through
this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters is requested this afternoon through
Monday morning.

ARZ060-061-070-071-TXZ096-097-241830-
Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-Red River-Bowie-
116 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A frontal boundary will push southeast into the area this
afternoon into tonight, bringing two rounds of severe weather. The
first round, this afternoon, will bring the threat of damaging
winds and large hail. The second round, late this evening into the
overnight hours will bring the threat of damaging winds with
embedded isolated tornadoes possible. Localized flash flooding
will be possible through this period.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

An unsettled pattern will setup over the Four State Region for the
upcoming week. For the most part, daytime heating will lead to the
chance for showers and thunderstorms to remain in the forecast
through next weekend. Some of the stronger storms may produce
locally gusty winds and brief, heavy rainfall each day. Localized
flash flooding will be possible with slower moving storms through
this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters is requested this afternoon through
tonight.

ARZ050-051-059-OKZ077-241830-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-McCurtain-
116 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A frontal boundary will push southeast into the area this
afternoon into tonight, bringing two rounds of severe weather. The
first round, this afternoon, will bring the threat of damaging
winds and large hail. The second round, late this evening into the
overnight hours will bring the threat of damaging winds with
embedded isolated tornadoes possible. Flash flooding will be
possible through this period.

Flash flooding will be possible this evening and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

An unsettled pattern will setup over the Four State Region for the
upcoming week. For the most part, daytime heating will lead to the
chance for showers and thunderstorms to remain in the forecast
through next weekend. Some of the stronger storms may produce
locally gusty winds and brief, heavy rainfall each day. Localized
flash flooding will be possible with slower moving storms through
this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters is requested this afternoon through
tonight.

04

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
324 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

TXZ152-165-232100-
Angelina TX-Nacogdoches TX-
324 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN NACOGDOCHES AND
NORTH CENTRAL ANGELINA COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 323 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of Nacogdoches, moving north at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Nacogdoches, Trawick, Appleby and Redland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3139 9464 3144 9484 3183 9477 3177 9446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 194DEG 37KT 3150 9472

13

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
355 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

ARZ060-232145-
Hempstead AR-
355 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HEMPSTEAD COUNTY UNTIL
445 PM CDT...

At 354 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Washington, or 9 miles west of Hope, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hope, Blevins, Washington, McCaskill, Ozan, McNab and Oakhaven.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southwestern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3399 9370 3398 9368 3398 9365 3396 9362
      3396 9356 3393 9346 3390 9346 3360 9368
      3367 9388 3375 9385 3375 9383 3380 9383
      3401 9375
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 205DEG 31KT 3371 9375

13

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
413 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

ARZ071-072-LAZ002-003-232200-
Lafayette AR-Columbia AR-Bossier LA-Webster LA-
413 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LAFAYETTE AND
SOUTHWESTERN COLUMBIA COUNTIES...NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER AND
NORTHEASTERN BOSSIER PARISHES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 413 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southeast of Plain Dealing, or 16 miles southwest of
Springhill, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Springhill, Cullen, Sarepta, Welcome, Rocky Mount, State Line and
Ivan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southwestern Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3271 9354 3277 9369 3313 9358 3302 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 204DEG 27KT 3279 9360

13