Severe Thunderstorm Warning 282, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
328 PM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Tuesday Night/

Convective coverage much better than anticipated this aftn, as
Gulf moisture quickly recovers from the last several days of swly
winds. Ridge over the sern CONUS providing an open gate over the
SE TX coast as our low and mid level moisture increases. Some
convection could persist beyond sunset, so have kept 20 PoPs
through the evening hours. With increasing low level moisture and
accompanying cloud cover, our temps overnight will not be able to
cool as much as in previous days.

Very similar pattern fcst for Tuesday, as enhanced sea breeze
convection develops again across our srn areas. Daytime temps
should be inhibited some by the increase in clouds/moisture and
the loss of influence by the upper ridge, so temps likely to be
slightly cooler than today. Warming trend in overnight temps will
continue for Tuesday night, with even more cloud cover possible
towards sunrise Wednesday morning. /12/

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday through Sunday Night/

Wednesday will see the stout 594dam upper level heat ridge over
Tennessee. This feature will basically oscillate back and forth
unchanged until the weekend as to our highs continue in the mid to
upper 90s. Lows will keep to the low to mid 70s for much if not all
of the long term. Heat index remains occasionally marginal with
increasing moisture for the late work week, but improves beyond.

A weak cold front may bring enhanced scattered convection into the I-
30 corridor on Friday and some low 90s, but essentially what it will
do is usher the upper level heat ridge off the Atlantic seaboard.
And all this just in time for a decent Easterly wave to work across
the Gulf toward the TX/LA coastline, further drifting in over E TX
while slowly diminishing early in the new work week.

This lingering fall-off of our heights aloft in the long term
pattern will allow us to see slightly cooler afternoon temps with
more low to mid 90s under the clouds and the chance pops into next
week. The moisture inflow remains enhanced with the weakness over E
TX Sunday into Monday. Isolated, to at times scattered convection,
will mainly be diurnally driven and will windshield wiper in and out
of the long term period.

The position of the Easterly wave dampening in place over E TX is
encouraging in keeping the upper weakness in a favorable position
for all of the area to see at least some opportunity for a heat
break and a chance for rainfall into the next work week. Hopefully
the GFS/ECMWF models can get a little more excited in the coming
days with even more QPF signal for our four state area during this
slow transistion. /24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1159 AM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected during the 18Z TAF pd, as high pressure
aloft continues to dominate our wx pattern. Isold convection will
be possible today, mainly at KLFK and KMLU, but will handle with
TEMPO groups as needed. Convection should diminish around sunset.
KLFK/KTYR may see some brief MVFR cigs around sunrise Tuesday, as
low level moisture continues to increase. Any cigs should mix out
by mid morning. Otherwise, sely winds 5-10 kts can be expected
during the daylight hours, with light and vrbl winds overnight.
/12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  74  95 /  20  10   0  10
MLU  74  97  73  97 /  20  10   0  10
DEQ  69  95  70  93 /  10  10   0  10
TXK  72  94  73  94 /  20  10   0  10
ELD  71  97  71  95 /  20  10   0  10
TYR  72  94  73  93 /  20  20  10  10
GGG  71  96  73  94 /  20  10  10  10
LFK  72  94  73  93 /  20  20  10  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

12/24

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
515 AM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-101015-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
515 AM CDT Mon Sep 9 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Afternoon high temperatures will climb into the mid 90s with heat
index values between 100 and 105 degrees areawide. Precautions
should be taken to mitigate heat related illnesses. Otherwise,
widely scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms may be
possible across northeast Louisiana and deep east Texas. No
organized hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will not be needed through tonight.

05

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