Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
310 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday Night/

Airmass attm still worked over from early morning mcs that swept
thru the region with skies clear to flat cumulus across most of
the area. Satellite indicators of cloud street boundary
interaction seen closer to the Red River, coincident to where
convection initiation is expected by around 00z. In addition, a
fairly steep dewpoint gradient also noted in the river valley with
dewpoints in mid 70s to the south and upper 60s to the north. 19z
soundings at kshv and kfws show stg instability above a weak mid
lvl cap with seasonally stg low lvl shear. Vertical moisture
still only marginal for convection, reasons why convection has yet
to initiate. Extreme lapse rates above and below weak cap indicate
high potential for very large hail with any supercells that manage
to form durg daylight hours along with tornadic potential. Later
in evening is mcs threat with more widespread straight line winds.
For these reasons, heavy rainfall totals will be of lesser threat.

Despite lack of sfc front, airmass appears to be worked over
for thursday aside from first glance favorable conditions for at
least isold convection, and will only carry isold pops eastern
third of cwa. With unchanged dewpoints in mid to possible upper
70s, and temps running over 90 degrees, will see heat indices
climb over the 100 degree mark and sw winds once again in the 10
to 15 mph range. With the persistently higher dewpoint readings,
will start to see overnight lows in the middle to upper 70s by
Thursday night, and possibly even tonight, depending on rain
cooling and outflow boundary effects./07/.

.LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday Night/

Upper ridge axis to be centered along the MS River Valley at the
start of the pd Friday. This will leave our region under weak swly
flow aloft. Sct aftn convection will be possible, mainly during the
aftn/evening through Friday and Saturday, including some possibility
for sea breeze activity.

Upper trof will make its way ewd into the Central/Southern Plains
Sunday and approach our region Sunday night into Monday morning.
This will likely result in tstm development across our nwrn areas,
which would move sewd through Monday. There is some potential for
severe storms Monday, but model inconsistencies continue to keep
this too uncertain to warrant a bold mention attm. The associated
sfc boundary looks to become stalled as the trof pushes ewd, which
may leave chances for sct convection in over our region through the
remainder of the pd.

Temps to run near or just slightly above normal through much of the
pd, with the exception of Monday. Convection and the passage of a
weak cold front Monday will likely result in slightly cooler temps.
/12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 108 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019/

AVIATION...

VFR conditions areawide aside from some high mvfr decks that will
likely scatter out soon with heating. S-sw winds increasing to 10
to 15 kts, with a few higher gusts over mainly ktxk terminal.
scattered svr tstms may begin developing prior to 20/00z with full
daytime heating, although mcs cluster of tstms movg in from the nw
will not initiate until after 20/00z. Damaging winds and very
large hail may occur, along with some tornadic potential. Mvfr
cigs may form after these storms end later tonight with continued
southerly winds. SW winds increasing to 10 to 15 kts once again by
around 20/15z as low clouds scatter out./07/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  94  76  94 /  70  20   0  10
MLU  73  91  77  94 /  60  20  10  20
DEQ  68  89  74  91 /  70  10  10  10
TXK  70  91  75  92 /  70  20  10  10
ELD  71  91  75  93 /  70  20  10  10
TYR  72  94  76  93 /  70  10  10  10
GGG  72  94  77  93 /  70  10   0  10
LFK  74  94  77  94 /  50  10   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1214 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-201715-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1214 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop again later
this afternoon and evening across Northeast Texas and surrounding
areas and move southeastward, as an upper level disturbance
advances across the region. Damaging winds, very large hail, and
perhaps a few isolated tornadoes will be possible with the
storms. Locally heavy rainfall could also produce isolated
flooding in some areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

A few thunderstorms may linger across north Louisiana and
southwest Arkansas through midday Thursday before diminishing by
Thursday afternoon. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are
expected across portions of the region on Friday and Saturday
before becoming more scattered by Sunday through early next week.
Although severe weather is unlikely, a few strong storms may be
possible from Sunday through early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, spotter networks, and amateur
radio operators, may be needed this evening and tonight.

12

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