Severe Thunderstorm Warning 227, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
329 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday night/
Short range guidance has struggled to keep up with the convection
that is ongoing. Have decided to go with the GFS, at least for the
next 12 to 24 hours, since it has a better handle with the MCS
that has moved through and the convection that is currently over
North Texas. Thus, precipitation chances range from chance to
likely over that timeframe. Precipitable water on this morning's
sounding was 1.60 inches for today. This coupled with nearly
unidirectional flow is making these storms efficient rain
producers for this time of year. While there is an isolated chance
for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, the greatest
threat in the short term will be heavy rainfall with isolated
flash flooding possible through Monday afternoon. By Monday
evening, precipitation chances should be on the decline as the
weak upper level trough shifts east of the area.

Have kept max temperatures tomorrow below normal with the amount
of cloud cover and rain expected while low temperatures in both
periods should be near normal. /35/

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/

Continued stg instability but with greater uncertainty of moisture
and shear resulting in uncertain tstm potential Tuesday and
Wednesday, although low lvl winds begin to switch from the west back
to the south durg the day Tuesday. Will keep pops mainly low end
chance category under these circumstances with temps warming back to
either side of 90 degrees. ECMWF is most evident with showing
convection erupting over nw portions of cwa. The next shortwave
develops within the flow over OK into the Middle Red River Valley
Wednesday evening. Reasonable agreement exists this morning between
the GFS and ECMWF with a 30-40+ kt SWrly LLJ feeding into this next
shortwave trough Wednesday night, with large scale forcing resulting
in another potential MCS over SE OK/SW AR. Will increase pops to
high end chance wed night into thur with adequate moisture and
cooling mid lvls with extreme instability with wed night mcs
possibly developing in close proximity to cwa.

Ridging aloft will build N from Cntrl TX towards the area into the
wknd with isold pops and even warmer temps into lower to middle 90s
expected. /07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  87  72  89 /  50  60  40  40
MLU  71  87  72  89 /  50  70  50  50
DEQ  69  83  68  87 /  60  50  30  40
TXK  69  85  70  87 /  50  60  40  50
ELD  69  86  70  87 /  50  60  50  50
TYR  70  87  72  88 /  60  50  30  30
GGG  70  87  72  89 /  50  60  40  40
LFK  73  88  73  91 /  50  60  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-171700-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A line of strong thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall are moving
across the East Texas Lakes and Toledo Bend area, and into
North Central Louisiana. Strong gusty winds and minor flooding may
occur before these storms exit the region by mid afternoon.
However, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to
redevelop by late afternoon through this evening over portions of
North Texas and Southern Oklahoma, which should gradually progress
east southeast into Southeast Oklahoma, Northeast Texas, and
adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas later tonight. There will
be the potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms with
damaging winds to develop over these areas tonight, with the
threat for locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Showers and thunderstorms will increase once again across the
region Monday, as an upper level trough slowly progresses east
across the area. An isolated severe thunderstorm threat can not be
ruled out Monday, with damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall
possible. Localized flash flooding will be possible as well where
storms producing heavy rainfall continue to move repeatedly over
the same areas. While these showers and thunderstorms should
diminish Monday night, additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the region Tuesday and
Wednesday, with some of the stronger storms producing locally
gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. The approach of another
upper level disturbance over Oklahoma and the Red River Valley
late Wednesday will result in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast
Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and portions of the I-20 corridor of
North Louisiana Wednesday night and Thursday morning, before
diminishing from west to east Thursday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, spotter networks, and amateur
radio operators, may be needed later today through tonight across
the region.

07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

LAZ013-014-019>022-161830-
Caldwell LA-Winn LA-La Salle LA-Ouachita LA-Grant LA-Jackson LA-
1227 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL GRANT...CALDWELL...
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON...NORTHERN LA SALLE...SOUTHEASTERN OUACHITA AND
WINN PARISHES UNTIL 130 PM CDT...

At 1226 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Richwood to 11 miles northeast of
Montgomery. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Monroe, West Monroe, Winnfield, Columbia, Brownsville-Bawcomville,
Jena, Richwood, Olla, Clarks, Grayson, Midway, Urania, Tullos,
Georgetown, Atlanta, Sikes, Fondale, Vixen, Bosco and Riverton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near area waterways, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10
miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are
close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do
not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3207 9193 3206 9191 3201 9189 3193 9190
      3193 9201 3169 9201 3175 9295 3249 9214
      3250 9193 3238 9200 3228 9203 3227 9199
      3223 9201 3221 9199 3219 9201 3220 9197
      3217 9198 3216 9190 3209 9187
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 270DEG 48KT 3244 9213 3181 9279

07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

LAZ017>020-022-TXZ165>167-161830-
Winn LA-La Salle LA-Natchitoches LA-Grant LA-Sabine LA-Sabine TX-
Angelina TX-San Augustine TX-
1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GRANT...SOUTHERN NATCHITOCHES...
CENTRAL LA SALLE...SOUTHERN SABINE AND SOUTH CENTRAL WINN PARISHES...
SOUTHERN ANGELINA...SOUTHERN SAN AUGUSTINE AND SABINE COUNTIES UNTIL
130 PM CDT...

At 1234 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Montgomery Louisiana to 9 miles
south of Apple Springs Texas. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Alexandria, Natchitoches, Diboll, Milam, Jena, Many, Colfax,
Hemphill, Pineland, Montgomery, Midway, Zavalla, Florien, Provencal,
Natchez, Pollock, Dry Prong, Fisher, Broaddus and Nebo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near area waterways boating or fishing, get out of the
water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can
strike out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to
safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3115 9485 3130 9439 3122 9433 3132 9432
      3175 9282 3168 9201 3135 9201 3132 9208
      3135 9207 3148 9218 3139 9266 3152 9272
      3135 9295 3136 9339 3128 9344 3128 9353
      3117 9358 3116 9391 3103 9447
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 046DEG 117KT 3167 9297 3109 9497

07

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
147 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

TXZ152-165>167-161945-
Sabine TX-Angelina TX-Nacogdoches TX-San Augustine TX-
147 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NACOGDOCHES...
ANGELINA...SOUTHERN SAN AUGUSTINE AND SABINE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM
CDT...

At 146 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles south of Apple Springs to near
Burkeville. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lufkin, Diboll, Milam, Hudson, Huntington, Hemphill, Pineland,
Etoile, Burke, Zavalla, Broaddus, Fairmount, Shawnee, Clawson,
Central, Bronson, Redland, McElroy, Yellowpine and Homer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near Sam Rayburn. Toledo Bend. and surrounding waterways,
get out of the water and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember,
lightning can strike out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm.
If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by
lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water
in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3115 9485 3123 9486 3126 9490 3128 9488
      3134 9492 3146 9486 3139 9369 3134 9367
      3131 9369 3128 9366 3118 9362 3116 9391
      3106 9434 3105 9452
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 207DEG 31KT 3111 9494 3107 9362

07

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