River Flood Warning 154, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
329 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday night/
Short range guidance has struggled to keep up with the convection
that is ongoing. Have decided to go with the GFS, at least for the
next 12 to 24 hours, since it has a better handle with the MCS
that has moved through and the convection that is currently over
North Texas. Thus, precipitation chances range from chance to
likely over that timeframe. Precipitable water on this morning's
sounding was 1.60 inches for today. This coupled with nearly
unidirectional flow is making these storms efficient rain
producers for this time of year. While there is an isolated chance
for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, the greatest
threat in the short term will be heavy rainfall with isolated
flash flooding possible through Monday afternoon. By Monday
evening, precipitation chances should be on the decline as the
weak upper level trough shifts east of the area.

Have kept max temperatures tomorrow below normal with the amount
of cloud cover and rain expected while low temperatures in both
periods should be near normal. /35/

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/

Continued stg instability but with greater uncertainty of moisture
and shear resulting in uncertain tstm potential Tuesday and
Wednesday, although low lvl winds begin to switch from the west back
to the south durg the day Tuesday. Will keep pops mainly low end
chance category under these circumstances with temps warming back to
either side of 90 degrees. ECMWF is most evident with showing
convection erupting over nw portions of cwa. The next shortwave
develops within the flow over OK into the Middle Red River Valley
Wednesday evening. Reasonable agreement exists this morning between
the GFS and ECMWF with a 30-40+ kt SWrly LLJ feeding into this next
shortwave trough Wednesday night, with large scale forcing resulting
in another potential MCS over SE OK/SW AR. Will increase pops to
high end chance wed night into thur with adequate moisture and
cooling mid lvls with extreme instability with wed night mcs
possibly developing in close proximity to cwa.

Ridging aloft will build N from Cntrl TX towards the area into the
wknd with isold pops and even warmer temps into lower to middle 90s
expected. /07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  71  87  72  89 /  50  60  40  40
MLU  71  87  72  89 /  50  70  50  50
DEQ  69  83  68  87 /  60  50  30  40
TXK  69  85  70  87 /  50  60  40  50
ELD  69  86  70  87 /  50  60  50  50
TYR  70  87  72  88 /  60  50  30  30
GGG  70  87  72  89 /  50  60  40  40
LFK  73  88  73  91 /  50  60  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-171700-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A line of strong thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall are moving
across the East Texas Lakes and Toledo Bend area, and into
North Central Louisiana. Strong gusty winds and minor flooding may
occur before these storms exit the region by mid afternoon.
However, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to
redevelop by late afternoon through this evening over portions of
North Texas and Southern Oklahoma, which should gradually progress
east southeast into Southeast Oklahoma, Northeast Texas, and
adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas later tonight. There will
be the potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms with
damaging winds to develop over these areas tonight, with the
threat for locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Showers and thunderstorms will increase once again across the
region Monday, as an upper level trough slowly progresses east
across the area. An isolated severe thunderstorm threat can not be
ruled out Monday, with damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall
possible. Localized flash flooding will be possible as well where
storms producing heavy rainfall continue to move repeatedly over
the same areas. While these showers and thunderstorms should
diminish Monday night, additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the region Tuesday and
Wednesday, with some of the stronger storms producing locally
gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. The approach of another
upper level disturbance over Oklahoma and the Red River Valley
late Wednesday will result in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast
Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and portions of the I-20 corridor of
North Louisiana Wednesday night and Thursday morning, before
diminishing from west to east Thursday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, spotter networks, and amateur
radio operators, may be needed later today through tonight across
the region.

07

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