Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
724 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

.AVIATION...

For the ArkLaTex terminals, severe convection working through E TX
early this evening with bow echoes with gusty wind to 40-60KT,
large hail possible and tornado threat until after midnight
working across LA until 07Z. TS attm along a KPSN/KGGG/KTXK/KELD
line moving NE30-40KT. So at that, expect 40KT nd and maybe more
with heating still loaded into this convection approaching KSHV.
Overnight progression of activity through KMLU/KLFK by daybreak. S
winds 10-20KT tonight will become W/SW for Sunday 10KT or less.
/24/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 444 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019/

UPDATE.../Tonight/
Quick update to extend Tornado Watch 183 to cover Cherokee and
Rusk Counties. Will likely be coordinating new downstream watch
with SPC within the next hour or so. /12/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 430 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019/

SHORT TERM...

Severe weather expected across the region this afternoon through
the overnight period as current radar is depicting a strong line
of thunderstorms moving into the region from the west. Warnings
have already been issued for extreme southeast Oklahoma and
adjacent southwest Arkansas and a Tornado Watch is in effect until
8 pm for the Shreveport and Bossier metro area, all of East Texas
north of Interstate 20, McCurtain County Oklahoma, and all of
southwest Arkansas, excluding Union County. Several reports of
down trees have been reported across McCurtain County with this
line of storms a couple hours earlier. We anticipate an
intensification of this convection later through the evening and
overnight period as this line of storms continue its eastward
progression as strong deep layer shear exist ahead of this line
along with mixed layer cape over 3000 J/kg. In addition to the
high cape values, WBZ values from the special 18z sounding check
in at 9.8 kft. At this point, we are expecting all four types of
severe weather...tornadoes, hail, damaging winds, and flash
flooding.

The severe threat should gradually wind down through early Sunday
morning, but we could continue to see severe convection through
around daybreak across our far SE zones. Convection will be
possible through early Sunday afternoon from deep East Texas up
across parts of northeast Louisiana as moisture continues to pool
south of the cold front, which is expected to stall just south of
the I-30 corridor. Temperatures will remain rather warm on Sunday
with mid to upper 80s for highs as the front expected to
eventually lift back north late in the day. /20/

LONG TERM...

Upper-trough across the desert southwest to maintain a generally
unstable southwest flow aloft across the ArkLaTex on Monday. Warm
front shifting north withing low-level southerly flow to allow for a
chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly along and north of I-20
on Monday afternoon.

Conditions to deteriorate on Tuesday as upper-trough deepens into a
closed low across the Rockies, further increasing instability
downstream across much of the central Conus from the mid-Mississippi
Valley to the ArkLaTex. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible on Tuesday afternoon as a squall line moves across
northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and northwest Louisiana.

Upper-level ridge to strengthen across the southeast, extending
westward across the northern gulf coast allowing for mainly dry
conditions areawide through the remainder of the long term forecast
period. Upper-ridging combined with low-level southerly flow aloft
will drive temperatures into the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat
index values inching into the lower to middle 90s at times from
Wednesday through Friday. /05/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 113 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019/

AVIATION...

For the 18/18Z TAF period, generally low VFR to MVFR cigs
continue across most sites this afternoon. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms have developed across the region and will continue
to expand in coverage ahead of a strong line of thunderstorms
moving eastward from North Texas and Central Oklahoma. This line
will continue to spread eastward through the afternoon into
evening and overnight with an increasing threat of severe storms
from mid to late afternoon through the evening and overnight
hours. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will all be
possible. Most of the convection should be moving out of the
region after 19/15z. Southerly winds will also be increasing with
speeds approaching 15-20 kts with higher gusts near 25 kts or
higher across nearly all sites through much of the period. /20/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  87  71  89 / 100  20  10  20
MLU  74  87  70  88 /  70  30  10  30
DEQ  68  85  63  85 /  80  20  10  30
TXK  71  85  67  86 / 100  20  10  30
ELD  72  86  67  86 /  90  20  10  30
TYR  72  86  70  88 /  80  20  10  10
GGG  73  86  70  89 / 100  20  10  10
LFK  74  87  72  90 /  90  20  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for ARZ050-051-059-060-
     070-071.

LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for LAZ001-002-010-011.

OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for OKZ077.

TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165-166.

&&

24/99/99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1150 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-191700-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1150 AM CDT Sat May 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Strong to severe thunderstorms will gradually increase in
coverage across portions of east Texas and southeast Oklahoma
during the early afternoon hours and points eastward through the
late afternoon and evening hours. Damaging winds are expected to
be the primary risk with large hail and isolated tornadoes also
possible as a squall line moves across the region. Locally heavy
rainfall amounting to a few inches within an hours time may also
lead to mainly minor isolated flooding issues. Severe weather
risk to diminish late tonight as the bulk of thunderstorms
shift east and instability wanes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Widely scattered thunderstorms remain possible during day Sunday
and also during the day Monday. However, the threat for severe
thunderstorms over this time period should be low.

The risk for strong to severe storms will return to at least the
northwestern half of the Four State Region on Tuesday as another
potent disturbance brushes by the region. Initial thinking is
damaging winds will be the primary risk with this activity,
although hail and a few tornadoes cannot yet be ruled out,
especially across portions of the Arklatex.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters will likely be needed this
afternoon into this evening.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
749 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

LAZ001-TXZ138-151-190130-
Caddo LA-Panola TX-Harrison TX-
749 PM CDT Sat May 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CADDO PARISH...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON AND NORTHEASTERN PANOLA COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM
CDT...

At 748 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Beckville, or 10 miles north of Carthage, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Shreveport, Greenwood, Blanchard, Waskom, Deberry, Elysian Fields,
Jonesville and Cross Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for northwestern
Louisiana...and northeastern Texas. A Tornado Watch also remains in
effect until 200 AM CDT for northeastern Texas.

LAT...LON 3221 9436 3237 9446 3261 9392 3244 9373
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 240DEG 40KT 3230 9434

15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
808 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     LIGHTNING        4 SE NOONDAY            32.20N 95.36W
05/18/2019                   SMITH              TX   PUBLIC

            HOUSE HIT BY LIGHTNING AND ON FIRE.

&&

AS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
810 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PRESCOTT                33.80N 93.39W
05/18/2019                   NEVADA             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF DEPARTMENT REPORTS NUMEROUS TREES
            DOWN ACROSS THE CITY OF PRESCOTT.

&&

AS

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