Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS San Diego, CA

028 
WWUS56 KSGX 222202
SVSSGX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Diego CA
302 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

CAC073-222212-
/O.CAN.KSGX.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-190722T2230Z/
San Diego CA-
302 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning has
been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3315 11658 3310 11658 3306 11665 3313 11671
      3324 11665
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 143DEG 6KT 3319 11667 

$$

Moreland

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
130 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will expand over the Southwest early this week,
bringing warm days and less extensive night and morning coastal
low clouds. Increasing moisture from the southeast will mean more
high cloudiness and an increasing chance of showers and
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoons and early evenings and
mainly over the mountains and deserts. The best chances of strong
thunderstorms with locally heavy rain is Tuesday through Thursday.
Dry weather will likely return by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Some thunderstorms had formed over the region as of early afternoon
as the decrease in mid-high clouds have allowed for better surface
heating. A few lightning strikes in quick-moving weak convective
cells occurred earlier, including a couple near Palm Springs a
little before 10 AM. Scattered thunderstorms will occur mainly over
the mountains this afternoon, but given the southeast flow, a few
cells could drift into the valleys. Durations will generally be
short as, evidenced by the northern Baja convection, the
thunderstorms modify the environment by the cooling. HRRR and HREF
show relatively limited amounts of precip, so total amounts should
generally be under 1/2 inch this afternoon.

The upper high is now over the 4 Corners and will stay in that area
through about Thursday and bring us moist southeast flow aloft.
Winds in the mid levels will decrease by about half, which will help
the taller pulse-type thunderstorms to better form, though near
saturation at times in the 500-300 MB layers may produce enough
clouds at times to inhibit the convection. Some of the higher level
moisture will be dependent on convection upstream, such as over
Sonora, the day before. Where thunderstorms form, there could be
brief heavy rain, with a possibility of isolated flash flooding,
though HREF solutions show a very low chance of greater than one
inch of precipitation anywhere Tuesday, at least for now.
Thunderstorms will mostly be over the mountains and deserts, but
some convergence along the Elsinore Convergence Zone in the Inland
Empire could produce a few thunderstorms there Tuesday or Wednesday
afternoon, especially with surface temperatures around 100 degrees
providing some instability. The moisture decreases some Thursday,
though the height level of the moisture, more around 700 MB, less
above, may be more favorable for thunderstorms partly due to fewer
high clouds.

GEFS is consistent with its ensemble solutions with the placement of
the upper high over the 4 Corners through Friday, then the solutions
gradually divergence over the weekend with more than half the
solutions having the upper high shift south which would place us
under drier southwest flow, mostly due to troughing in the northern
part of the West, but other solutions only have a slight shift
southwest, which could maintain isolated thunderstorms. For now,
will lean towards the drier solution but keep our eyes open.
Temperatures will be a little above normal this week, except near
or just slightly below normal in the deserts due to the moisture,
though the humidity will make it feel warmer there. With the drying
late in the week, temperatures in the deserts could rebound above
110 degrees again.

&&

.AVIATION...
221945Z...Coast/Valleys...FEW-SCT low clouds with bases around 1000
ft MSL and tops to 1600 ft MSL this afternoon. Low clouds will be
less in coverage tonight, but could impact KSAN, KCRQ and KSNA with
cigs 800-1000 ft MSL at times between 08Z and 16Z Tuesday.

Mountains/Deserts...SCT-BKN clouds AOA 10000 ft MSL early this
afternoon. FEW-SCT TSRA over the mountains this afternoon/evening.
Lightning VCNTY KPSP, KTRM, KSBD and KONT is possible but low
probability.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather expected through Friday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
There is a small chance that Skywarn activation will be needed later
today. Skywarn could be activated any afternoon and early evening
through Friday due to thunderstorm activity.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...Maxwell
AVIATION/MARINE...PG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Diego CA
125 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

CAZ058-222130-
San Diego County Mountains-
125 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...

At 125 PM PDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Warner Springs,
or 14 miles south of Anza, moving northwest at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 35 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Warner Springs, Hwy 79 Between Santa Ysabel And Warner Springs and
Los Coyotes Indian Reservation.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 3327 11665 3340 11670 3342 11668 3342 11657
      3340 11653 3328 11657
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 143DEG 6KT 3336 11662

Moreland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Diego CA
157 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

CAZ056-222200-
Riverside County Mountains-
157 PM PDT Mon Jul 22 2019

...THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE MOUNTAINS OF RIVERSIDE COUNTY...

At 155 PM PDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles northeast
of Hwy 79 Between Oak Grove And Aguanga, or 7 miles south of Anza.
Another thunderstorm was located just east of Idyllwild.

Winds in excess of 35 mph are possible with these storms. In
addition, rainfall amounts of one-half inch per hour are possible
along with frequent lightning.

Locations impacted include...
Idyllwild-Pine Cove, Anza, Mt San Jacinto State Park, Hwy 243 Between
Banning And Idyllwild, Hwy 74 Between Mountain Center And Anza,
Mountain Center, Cahuilla Indian Reservation and Lake Hemet.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3343 11663 3343 11676 3359 11673 3380 11675
      3380 11662 3358 11663
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 143DEG 6KT 3345 11670

Moreland