High Surf Advisory 8, NWS San Diego, CA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
1000 AM PDT Mon May 13 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Onshore flow will prevail for the next week keeping coastal areas
cooler with night and morning coastal low clouds and fog extending
well inland into the valleys. There is a slight chance of a
thunderstorm over the mountains this afternoon, but dry weather will
prevail Tuesday. Strengthening onshore flow will spread cooling
inland on Wednesday with a trough of low pressure Thursday bringing
cooling, stronger and gusty west winds in the mountains and deserts,
and rain. Some drying and a little warmer weather will occur Friday
and Saturday, then another low pressure system arriving around
Sunday will bring stronger and gusty west winds in the mountains and
deserts and another chance of rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING
ORANGE...SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

Stratus was widespread from the mountain foothills west through the
coastal waters this morning with drizzle in a few locations. Some
clearing was occuring over the foothills at mid-morning, but this
will be a slow day for clearing near the coast where some areas will
likely stay cloudy this afternoon. Models indicate that CAPEs of 400-
700 J/kg are still expected in the mountains this afternoon along
with some moisture in the 700-500 MB layer, and most model output
including local WRF and the HREF indicate at least some spotty
precipitation, and with some cumulus already forming in the San
Bernardino and Riverside County mountains, a slight chance of
thunderstorms have been reintroduced in mainly the SBD/RIV mountains.

Strong and fairly deep marine inversion Tuesday and Wednesday will
prevail with stratus extending throughout the valleys each night
with only partial clearing at the coast each day. Mid-level moisture
and instability should finally disappear in the mountains by
Tuesday, so thunderstorm chances will be nil then. The ridge over
the region should shift to the east by Wednesday as a trough of low
pressure, quite deep for May, will approach from the west and bring
cooling mainly to inland areas Wed/Thu along with stronger west
winds in the mountains/deserts. The should be some precipitation
Thursday as a front moves through, with amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch
possible. After a weak transitory ridge brings some warming Fri/Sat
except where the marine layer is strongest near the coast, another
trough could bring more precipitation, most likely light, early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...1500Z...Coasts/Valleys...Low clouds with bases 1200-1700
FT MSL will affect coastal and valley TAF sites through 20Z with
clearing expected thereafter. Some patchy BKN-OVC low clouds may
linger near the beaches. Low clouds will redevelop in the evening,
with cigs beginning near 04Z and extending around 10-15 mi inland.
Bases will be slightly lower, between 800-1400 FT MSL. Coverage will
be more limited over the Inland Empire, with KONT/KSBD likely only
seeing a few hours of cigs, most likely between 12-15Z.

Mountains/Deserts...SCT clouds around 9000 feet MSL, mainly over the
mountains between 19-01Z, locally BKN. There is a slight chance of
TSRA over higher terrain 19-01Z. Otherwise, clear with unrestricted
vis.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine weather expected through Friday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...Maxwell
AVIATION/MARINE...Rodriguez

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