Tornado Warning 106, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1208 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

...Updated for 06Z Aviation Discussion...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 914 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

02z:

A 994 mb surface low-pressure system in currently centered over
central South Dakota. With the parent storm system now vertically
stacked, ancillary low-pressure has developed along the occluding
front in central Kansas. From this, a surface cold front extends
from Topeka-to-Wichita-to-Enid-to-Lubbock with a surface dryline
draped across the I-35 corridor. Further upstream, a broad warm
sector encompasses eastern Kansas, eastern Oklahoma, and southwest
Missouri with surface dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 50s. Storms,
now severe, have initiated across central Oklahoma at the
intersection of the surface cold front and dryline.

Per the 02z RAP analysis, the right entrance region of of 120 kt,
300-mb jet streak is nosing into portions of eastern KS, eastern
OK, and southwest MO. At 500 mb, a robust negatively-tilted
shortwave trough is analyzed across the Central Plains with
copious amounts of differential cyclonic vorticity advecting into
our forecast region. At 850 mb, a 50-70 kt low-level jet is
progged to nose into southwest Missouri by 06z. Meanwhile at the
surface, the winds were backed. This all adds up to very strongly
forced upward vertical motion across southwest Missouri with lots
of shear; two ingredients for a severe weather outbreak.

On the thermodynamic side, our 00z SGF sounding showed poor MLCAPE
on the order of 300 J/kg and a stout capping inversion. The
expectation at this time is, that as the low-level jet becomes
more pronounced, moisture, shear, instability, and lapse rates
will dramatically increase in the lower-levels which will help to
erode the cap.

Storm mode will rapidly evolve over the next hour across eastern
Oklahoma. Isolated supercells will quickly congeal into a squall
line as deep shear (0-6 km) vectors align roughly parallel to the
cold front. As this squall line enters southwest Missouri,
multiple bowing segments will develop as 0-3 km shear vectors on
the order of 40 kts align more perpendicular to the squall line,
allowing rear- inflow jets (RIJs) to punch downward toward the
surface. As this phenomena occurs, dangerous straight-line wind
gusts exceeding 70 MPH will become possible; and with 0-1 km
storm-relative helicity values approaching 400 m^2/s^2 out ahead
of the squall line, a few tornadoes are anticipated.

At this time, it is expected that all locations along and south of
Interstate 44 are at risk for severe weather late tonight into
early Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

An upper level low is currently located across the central Plains
with a trough extending south into the southern Plains. Surface
low pressure is located across western South Dakota with south to
southeasterly winds across our region. Gulf moisture is starting
to spread to the north into southern Arkansas and Oklahoma. The
moisture will continue to advect north tonight ahead of the
approaching system.

The upper level low will move east across the Plains this evening
and will send a cold front through the area late this evening into
the overnight hours. Instability is currently lacking, but as the
Gulf moisture continues to spread north, instability will start
to increase from south to north. Instability will likely continue
to increase across southern Missouri into the overnight hours.
There will be a cap in place through much of this evening, but as
height falls occur with the approaching upper level trough the
cap will begin to weaken. Vertical wind shear will also increase
as the upper level system moves across the area.

Storms are expected to develop along the front across Kansas and
Oklahoma by mid evening and quickly develop into a line. The line
will then race east late this evening into the overnight hours.
Timing: The line may start to affect extreme southeastern Kansas
and far western Missouri by as early as 9 pm and should push east
out of the waring area in south central Missouri by 6 am Monday
morning.

The deep layer shear, the increasing instability, and strong
forcing with this system will support a severe storm risk. With
the storm mode expected to be in the form of a line, the main
severe risk will be damaging straight line winds up to 70 mph. A
few of the strongest updrafts may also be capable of hail up to
the size of quarters. Strong low level shear will also support the
risk for spin up tornadoes within the line, mainly with surges in
the line to the east or east-northeast. The better severe
potential will be across southern Missouri where the better
instability will be in place generally along and south of I-44.
North of the interstate instability will be more limited, but with
the strong forcing along the front there will still be an isolated
strong to severe risk.

Some lingering showers may briefly occur behind the front for a
few hours, but drier air will quickly move in limiting the overall
post frontal rain chances.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

Gusty west winds will develop on Monday with gusts to around 35
mph expected at times. A cooler air mass is expected for Monday
and Tuesday with highs in the low to mid 60s and lows in the upper
30s to middle 40s.

An upper level trough will dive to the southeast into the Plains
on Wednesday. A head of this system gusty southerly winds will
occur and allow highs to warm to around the 70 degree mark.

The trough and associated cold front will move south through the
area Wednesday night into Thursday night. Showers will develop
across along and behind the front. A colder air mass will spread
into the area on Thursday and Friday with highs in the 50s and
lows in the 30s.

Medium range models differ on the upper level pattern late in the
week into next weekend leaving this period a lower confidence
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2019

Showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front will affect the
TAF sites through about 09Z, with some strong to severe storms
likely along with localized MVFR to IFR flight conditions. Once
these move out clouds will be on the decrease with VFR flight
conditions likely between 10Z-12Z and continuing through the end
of the TAF period.Look for a breezy conditions Monday with
westerly winds gusting to between 25 and 30 knots at times, but
diminishing after 00Z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Albano
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Raberding

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
744 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-220045-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
744 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

A cold front will move through the region later this evening into
the overnight hours. A line of storms will develop along the
front as it moves very quickly east through the outlook area.

The best potential for severe storms will be along and south of
I-44 from 9pm through 6am Monday morning. The main risk will be
damaging straight line wind gusts up to 70 to 80 mph. Strong wind
shear will also lead to a spin up tornado risk within the line. A
few of the strongest storms may also be capable of hail up to the
size of quarters. Frequent cloud to ground lightning can be
expected with this line of storms.

Gusty southerly winds will occur ahead the front, with gusts up
to 30 mph possible at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Westerly non thunderstorm wind gusts around 30 to 35 mph are
expected on Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later this evening for western
Missouri and southeast Kansas, and overnight across the remainder
of the Missouri Ozarks.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1218 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRANBY                  36.92N 94.25W
10/20/2019                   NEWTON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE BLOWN DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1238 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MONETT                  36.92N 93.93W
10/21/2019                   BARRY              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER OUTAGE DUE TO TREES BLOWN DOWN ON
            POWER LINES.

&&

MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
108 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0107 AM     TSTM WND GST     HIGHLANDVILLE           36.93N 93.28W
10/21/2019  E70 MPH          CHRISTIAN          MO   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
133 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HIGHLANDVILLE           36.93N 93.28W
10/21/2019                   CHRISTIAN          MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES DOWNED NEAR HIGHLANDVILLE ELEMENTARY
            SCHOOL.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
138 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WNW RIDGEDALE         36.53N 93.31W
10/21/2019                   TANEY              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE BLOWN DOWN ON HIGHWAY 86 AT TABLE ROCK
            LAKE.

&&

MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
153 AM CDT MON OCT 21 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW ROGERSVILLE       37.07N 93.07W
10/21/2019                   CHRISTIAN          MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            DAMAGE TO TREES, POWER LINES AND HOMES.

&&

MMT