Tornado Warning 10, NWS Springfield, MO

491 
WWUS53 KSGF 301918
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
218 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

MOC097-145-302000-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-190430T2000Z/
Newton MO-Jasper MO-
218 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN NEWTON AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES...
    
At 218 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Neosho, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Granby...                         Sarcoxie...
Diamond...                        Reeds...

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 44 between mile markers 21 and 32.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 25 and 29.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3692 9447 3694 9447 3696 9445 3714 9420
      3710 9405 3701 9406 3691 9436 3690 9443
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 230DEG 28KT 3694 9442 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.25IN

$$

Cramer

063 
WWUS53 KSGF 301925
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
225 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

MOC097-145-302000-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-190430T2000Z/
Newton MO-Jasper MO-
225 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN NEWTON AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES...
    
At 225 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Diamond, or near Neosho, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Sarcoxie...                       Diamond...
Reeds...                          

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 21 and 32.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3695 9442 3697 9442 3699 9441 3714 9420
      3710 9405 3705 9406 3696 9431 3694 9437
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 236DEG 25KT 3697 9437 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

Cramer

788 
WWUS53 KSGF 301935
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
235 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

MOC097-145-302000-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-190430T2000Z/
Newton MO-Jasper MO-
235 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN NEWTON AND SOUTHEASTERN JASPER COUNTIES...
    
At 235 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Diamond, or 11 miles south of Carthage, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Sarcoxie...                       Diamond...
Reeds...                          

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 21 and 32.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3699 9432 3702 9433 3705 9432 3714 9420
      3710 9405 3705 9406 3699 9423 3698 9426
      3697 9428
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 234DEG 29KT 3702 9428 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

Cramer

464 
WWUS53 KSGF 301957
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
257 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

MOC097-145-302007-
/O.EXP.KSGF.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-190430T2000Z/
Newton MO-Jasper MO-
257 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN NEWTON AND SOUTHEASTERN
JASPER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 300 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southwestern
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3699 9432 3702 9433 3705 9432 3714 9420
      3710 9405 3705 9406 3699 9423 3698 9426
      3697 9428
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 236DEG 25KT 3710 9413 

$$

Cramer

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
103 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

The stage seems to be setting for both severe thunderstorms and an
increasing flooding risk as we head into this afternoon and
tonight.

Currently, a surface frontal boundary extends across southern
Missouri from near Neosho to Ava to northern Shannon County. This
front will begin to lift north this morning as an increasingly
diffluent flow aloft overspreads the region.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to blossom during the
predawn hours near the I-35 corridor in Kansas and Oklahoma in
association with increasing low level moisture transport and upper
level diffluence. This activity will gradually spread east and
northeast into southeastern Kansas and western Missouri early this
morning.

Additionally, short term models indicate a weakening
capping inversion for elevated parcels across the central and
eastern Ozarks as we get into the 09-12Z time frame. Thus,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across
this area and continue this morning.

Enough elevated instability will exist for a few storms to
potentially produce marginally severe hail this morning.

As we get into late this morning and this afternoon, mid to
perhaps upper 60s dew points will surge north behind that
advancing warm front. With mid-level lapse rates still relatively
steep (over 7 C/km), we should see MLCAPE values in the 1500-2500
J/kg range as surface temperatures warm into the lower and middle
70s. Some upper 70s will be possible across south-central
Missouri.

As upper level lift continues to increase and the capping
inversion weakens, we should see scattered thunderstorm activity
continue in the warm sector while becoming more surface based.
Deep layer shear of around 40 knots will be supportive of
supercells with an attendant large hail (up to 2" in diameter) and
damaging wind threat. Although mid-level wind fields appear a bit
on the weak side (at least early this afternoon), hodographs do
support a supercell tornado threat.

Meanwhile, we should see more numerous convection develop this
afternoon back to the west from eastern Kansas into central or
eastern Oklahoma. Supercells will also be possible in this region,
with some of these potentially tracking into western Missouri.
Again, all modes of severe weather will be possible with this
activity later this afternoon and this evening. It should be noted
that low level shear will increase from late this afternoon into
this evening as a low level jet stream strengthens and veers into
western Missouri. This may tend to enhance the tornado threat.

Confidence is then high that these storms will grow upscale into a
squall line this evening with this line then moving east across
much of the Missouri Ozarks from later this evening into the
overnight period. The setup appears favorable for damaging winds
and embedded tornadoes. Portions of the line bowing towards the
northeast will stand the greatest chance for producing tornadoes.

The risk for flash flooding will also increase from today into
tonight given the increase in deep layer moisture and the
potential for multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Rainfall rates of
2-3" per hour will be possible with some storms. The Flash Flood
Watch will remain in place for all of the Missouri Ozarks and
southeastern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

The potential for severe storms and flooding will then continue
into Wednesday and Wednesday night. The location of these
potential hazards will be highly dependent on where that front
ends up and how much we can warm up. Initial indications are that
instability may be a bit stronger on Wednesday with MLCAPE values
in the 2000-3000 range if temperatures can warm into the middle to
upper 70s. Deep layer shear will still be supportive of supercell
potential with line segments also possible.

One feature we will have to watch for Wednesday night is short
wave energy moving northeast out of the Arklatex. This feature may
provide a more concentrated focus for heavy rainfall potential
that may track into portions of southern Missouri later Wednesday
night. Given that the front will still likely be draped over
central Missouri and southeastern Kansas, the threat for flooding
will also continue across the remainder of the area.

That front should start to nudge south on Thursday and Thursday
night as the upper level flow veers slightly. Nevertheless, the
potential for showers and thunderstorms will continue. It is
possible that some portion of the Flash Flood Watch will need to
be extended. The threat for severe storms on Thursday looks a
little lower at this point as instability may be weaker. Again,
the position of that front will play a big role regarding severe
weather chances.

Global models then indicate that the front will still be camped
out close enough on Friday to continue chances for showers and
thunderstorms. Maybe, just maybe we can then get that front far
enough south by Saturday to get a dry day. Global models seem to
support that happening with the upper level flow veering to
westerly or even west-northwesterly. Unfortunately, models then
show a signal for another system skirting across the area later
Sunday or Monday of next week.

As one might expect, temperatures for much of the period will be
heavily dependent on the location of that front along with
coverage of clouds and precipitation. We have stuck with a model
consensus blend with highs generally in the upper 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

Showers and thunderstorms beginning to initiate across the area.
Ceilings were MVFR to VFR outside of the convection and mainly
MVFR with occasional IFR in and near convection.

Conditions are not expected to improve much during the forecast
period as the surface front remains stalled across the region.
Winds should be on the increase later this afternoon into this
evening as the low level jet begins to increase across the area.
LLWS will also be possible this evening at all three terminals.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ057-058-
     069>071-080>083-090>092-095>098-101>106.

     Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ055-056-
     066>068-077>079-088-089-093-094.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Gaede

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
201 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-011915-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
201 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will move northeast into the
outlook area this afternoon and tonight. Supercell thunderstorms
are expected with tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds all
possible.

The thunderstorms are then expected to develop into a squall line
this evening and push east across the area tonight. This will
include a threat for damaging winds to 70 mph and tornadoes.
Portions of the squall line which bow out towards the northeast
will have an enhanced tornado threat.

An elevated threat for flash flooding exists for today and
tonight as multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The potential for severe thunderstorms and flooding will then
continue into Wednesday and Wednesday night. This includes the
potential for large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.
Details regarding the location and timing of these potential
hazards will become better known later today and tonight.

The risk for thunderstorms will then persist into Thursday and
Friday. The potential for severe storms and flooding is unclear at
this time. There are then limited chances for thunderstorms early
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
207 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S PITTSBURG           37.39N 94.70W
04/30/2019                   CRAWFORD           KS   PUBLIC

            INTERSECTIONS OF S BROADWAY ST AND FORD AVE,
            AND 4TH ST NEAR HWY 69 UNDER WATER. HEAVY
            RAINFALL CONTINUING.

&&

CKR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
208 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

KSZ097-MOZ077-301945-
Crawford KS-Barton MO-
208 PM CDT TUE APR 30 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD AND
NORTHWESTERN BARTON COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

At 208 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Girard, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pittsburg...                      Prairie State Park...
Frontenac...                      Girard...
Arma...                           Liberal...
Cherokee...                       Mulberry...
Chicopee...                       Mindenmines...
Franklin...                       Arcadia...
Burgess...                        Beulah...
Croweburg...                      Yale...
Ringo...                          Oskaloosa...
Lone Oak...                       Polk...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southeastern
Kansas...and southwestern and west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3767 9462 3765 9461 3765 9446 3764 9446
      3755 9445 3737 9462 3734 9487 3750 9489
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 227DEG 32KT 3745 9479

Hatch