Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1217 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Very tricky forecast for today. HRRR right now looks well to far
northeast with the MCS as it evolves the remainder of tonight into
Tuesday. Believe a quicker turn to the southeast is more likely
which would affect central and eastern Missouri counties from late
morning into the afternoon. We have increased pops over those
areas and lowered temperatures due to the expected rain and cloud
cover. There will be a wind risk with the storms over the eastern
Ozarks associated with the MCS. The MCS will likely cause issues
with our current heat advisory we have going for the entire CWA.
At this point, with the MCS not having turned southeast yet, do
not want to cancel any part of the advisory in case it does not
affect the area. Would hate to cancel then have to reissue later.
Would rather keep it going and have to cancel later this morning.
Expecting the remainder of the CWA to reach the advisory criteria
with dewpoints climbing back into the mid to upper 70s and highs
in the mid 90s. For tonight, we should see any remaining
convection diminish by the mid evening hours. New convection
overnight should remain more focused to our north of the CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

A surface front will be the focus for thunderstorm development on
Wednesday through Friday with some fairly decent rain amounts
expected during that period, especially Wednesday and Thursday
nights. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front with
high temperatures in the low to mid 80s from Thursday through
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect quiet conditions this afternoon and most of tonight. There
is a very isolated chance for a storm or two near the Branson
airport this evening.

Rain chances don't increase until tomorrow as a frontal system
sags into the area. Otherwise surface winds will remain from the
south or southwest anywhere from 5 to 15 mph.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055>058-068>071-
     079>083-090>092-095>098-103>106.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ066-067-077-078-
     088-089-093-094-101-102.

KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Cramer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1148 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-211700-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1148 AM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Significant excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

Heat index values will once again rise into the 100 to 110 degree
range over much of the area this afternoon.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern Ozarks
this afternoon and evening. A couple of strong storms will be
possible, with wind gusts up to 60 mph and hail to the size of
quarters. Most locations will remain dry.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional thunderstorms will be possible again on Wednesday
through the end of the week. Some of these storms may be severe on
Wednesday and Thursday along with a heavy rain potential.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today or tonight for areas
of the eastern Ozarks.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Cramer

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
221 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

MOZ071-201945-
Phelps MO-
221 PM CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PHELPS COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM CDT...

At 220 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Cuba, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. James...                      Rosati...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 198 and 200.

LAT...LON 3802 9153 3801 9163 3815 9163 3815 9153
      3814 9153 3812 9152
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 310DEG 14KT 3810 9154

Raberding