Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
633 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

The clouds have cleared out of the area this afternoon as some weak
mid level ridging developed. The sunny skies are allowing for
boundary layer recovery that will set the stage for more active
weather tonight. Early this afternoon, a frontal boundary was
positioned from central Kansas into northern Missouri and as this
slowly sags southward will become the main focus for convection.

Consensus of short term CAMs is for convective development across
southern Nebraska/northern Kansas in vicinity of boundary this
afternoon, where ML CAPES of 1500 to 2500 j/kg are expected to
reside along with sufficient deep layer shear for organized
convection. A weak shortwave is poised to move into Kansas this
evening, with a modest 40 knot low level jet developing from
Oklahoma into Kansas. This will aid in continued convective
development with storms likely congealing into an MCS and moving
southeast into central Missouri and southeast Kansas later this
evening and overnight with a damaging wind risk and to a lesser
extent a hail and tornado risk. In addition, the potential for heavy
rainfall and flash flooding will become more problematic, especially
since the ground is already saturated.

Ongoing morning convection Tuesday will play a major factor for
sensible weather and additional severe weather threat for later in
the day.

First, the severe weather threat: Main surface boundary is
likely to remain located across central Missouri back into Kansas,
with outflow boundaries from morning convection likely further
south. Morning convection is likely to move eastward, allowing
enough recovery time for greater instability by afternoon. If the
atmosphere can recover quickly enough, we will likely see more
severe storms develop once again, with the best chances over
central Missouri and southeast Kansas in vicinity of the boundary.
Damaging winds and hail will be the main threats, but we cannot
rule a tornado out near the boundary interface from late afternoon
into the evening hours.

Storms will then likely continue into the overnight hours as well
as a low level jet develops over the plains with additional
convection developing over Kansas and moving eastward into the
area after 06Z. Will have to watch for an increased flash flood
risk to the south of the existing watch.

Second, sensible weather: Clouds, lingering precipitation and
surface boundary location will play a big role in high
temperatures. There will likely be a rather large north-south
gradient, with areas near the Arkansas border in the 80s and just
low 70s over central Missouri. Confidence is not high though in
any one location's high temperature for Tuesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

The active weather will continue on Wednesday and into Thursday.
Southwest flow aloft will continue, with the main upper level
shortwave trough expected to become negatively tilted as it lifts
into western Kansas Wednesday morning and continues to lift
northeast into Nebraska and Iowa Wednesday night and into the
Great Lakes on Thursday. The attendant surface cold front will
move across Kansas Wednesday and into Missouri on Thursday. Still
quite a bit of uncertainty regarding timing and overall severe
weather threat Wednesday as models show varying degrees of
convection across the region. Global models do suggest ample shear
and instability for the potential for all modes of severe weather
Wednesday into Wednesday night and then again across the eastern
Ozarks on Thursday.

Quiet conditions are then expected from late Thursday night all the
way through Saturday as surface high pressure moves across the area.
Another cold front looks to drop through the area Saturday night
into Sunday morning for the possibility of more rain, albeit lighter
amounts and then back to quiet weather for Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

Convection firing once again over northeast Kansas. This activity
is expected to slide southeast and begin to affect the area
overnight. Showers will be scattered in nature with a few
thunderstorms. VFR candidness are expected for the most part some
MVFR to brief IFR within the thunderstorms.

This activity should clear out around 11z with a brief respite
during the remainder of the morning with showers and thunderstorms
once again developing on Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>081-088-089.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Gaede

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
828 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-080130-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
828 PM CDT Mon May 6 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Severe thunderstorms over east central Kansas are expected to move
southeast into the outlook area this evening reaching the Fort
Scott and Nevada areas by 930 pm and then the I-44 corridor from
Joplin to Lebanon between 1130 pm and 1 am. The storms will
continue east and southeast into most of the rest of Ozarks
overnight.

The storms will be strongest through 1 am having the potential
for 60 to 70 mph winds and half dollar sized hail. A brief short
lived tornado cannot be ruled out but tornadoes are not the
primary threat. Storms are expected to gradually weaken after 1
am, but a more marginal or lower risk for severe weather will
still exist.

Period of heavy rainfall with some storms may lead to flash
flooding, especially in areas where storms can line up and train
or persist longer over the same areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected from Tuesday
through early Thursday. Severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
and again Wednesday. The severe threat Wednesday night could be
more significant if certain ingredients materialize, therefore
please stay up to date on the forecast.

Periods of heavy rain and flooding will be possible Tuesday
through early Thursday. Total rainfall amounts of two to four
inches are possible through Thursday. Highest rainfall amounts
look to occur north of Interstate 44.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

DSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1019 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1012 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARCADIA                 37.64N 94.63W
05/06/2019                   CRAWFORD           KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ARCADIA FIRE DEPT REPORTS 2-3 INCH TREE
            LIMBS DOWNED IN TOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1025 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S HORTON              37.94N 94.37W
05/06/2019                   VERNON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORT OF A TRACTOR TRAILER BLOWN OFF THE
            ROADWAY BY HIGH WINDS ON I-49 AT THE 111
            MILE MARKER.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1111 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019

MOZ088-089-093-094-070500-
Jasper MO-Dade MO-Newton MO-Lawrence MO-
1111 PM CDT MON MAY 6 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NEWTON...LAWRENCE...SOUTHERN
JASPER AND EASTERN DADE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

At 1111 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Stockton to 9 miles north of Sarcoxie to
Joplin. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Joplin...                         Carthage...
Neosho...                         Webb City...
Stockton Lake...                  Monett...
Mount Vernon...                   Galena...
Seneca...                         Granby...
Duquesne...                       Sarcoxie...
Pierce City...                    Duenweg...
Diamond...                        Loma Linda...
Miller...                         Leawood...
Silver Creek...                   Shoal Creek Drive...

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 44 between mile markers 0 and 52.
 Interstate 49 between mile markers 20 and 39.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
southeastern Kansas...and southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3678 9462 3708 9462 3719 9408 3730 9407
      3730 9392 3749 9377 3758 9384 3757 9362
      3728 9363 3728 9361 3694 9386 3693 9406
      3690 9407
TIME...MOT...LOC 0411Z 319DEG 31KT 3771 9382 3721 9413 3709 9447

Titus

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