Severe Thunderstorm Warning 381, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
533 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 205 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019

An upper level trough is currently pushing east into the Plains
this afternoon. An associated area of surface low is located
across south central Kansas ahead of the trough. The pressure
gradient has tightened some ahead of the low allowing gusty
southerly winds to develop. Gusts up to 35 mph will continue to
occur at times across the area into this evening ahead of the
approaching low.

The southerly wind is pulling increased moisture north into the
area. This is resulting in cloud and some patchy fog to remain in
place across the area this afternoon. Despite the cloud cover,
temperatures are still in the middle 50s to the lower 60s early
this afternoon, which is well above normal for this time of year.

Lift has begun to overspreads the area ahead of the trough, which
has allowed an area of showers to develop across southeastern
Kansas and western Missouri. These showers will continue to move
to the east the rest of this afternoon. An isolated embedded
rumble of thunder or two may be possible within the showers.

A front is located from central Kansas to the south into central
Texas this afternoon. The clouds and showers are limited heating
and instability. However, 200 to 500 J/kg of ML Cape will still
be able to develop across the area given the moisture return.
Shear is on the stronger side across the area. With strong
forcing along the front and the strong shear, line segments are
developing along the front across central Oklahoma into south
central Kansas currently. These line segments will continue to
track to the northeast into the area this evening, then push east
of the area during the early overnight hours.

Given the strong shear that is in place the weak instability will
likely still be enough to lead to the potential for the potential
for some strong to severe storms this evening. A strong low level
jet is in place and momentum transfer will lead to the risk of
damaging wind gusts up to around 60mph. Given the weaker
thermodynamics, the wind risk will not be widespread by any means
with in the line segments but more scatted associated with any
surges in the line segments that can develop. Strong low level
shear will also be in place. The instability will likely not be
strong enough to balance the up draft down draft zones within the
line, so the line will be shear dominate. Where surges are able to
develop and maintain themselves an isolated brief spin up tornado
risk will be possible across the area this evening.

Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with the line of storms,
but they will be narrow in nature and should be fairly
progressive which will limit the flooding risk across the area.
There could be some showers that linger behind the line of storms
for a few hours. The rain will end from west to east late this
evening into the overnight hours.

The upper level trough will move through the region Sunday into
Sunday night. As the trough moves across the area rain showers
will develop and spread across the area, mainly affecting areas
along and east of Highway 65 Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.

Highs this afternoon will be in the upper 50s to middle 60s, with
lows only falling into the middle 40s to the upper 50s tonight. A
cooler air mass will start to move into the area on Sunday with
highs ranging from the middle 40s across southeastern Kansas to
the middle 50s across the eastern Ozarks. Lows Sunday night into
Monday morning will cool into the lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 205 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019

The upper level trough will move off to the east early next week
leaving the area in an upper level northwest flow pattern. This
will bring cooler conditions with highs in the 40s and lows in the
upper 20s to the area Monday and Tuesday. This will be closer to
normal for this time of year.

Short wave upper level ridging then build of the area during the
middle of next week allowing highs to warm into the 50s each
afternoon. Another upper level trough will move through the area
late next week bringing additional rain chances to the area. Highs
in the 50s will continue into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019

A few line segments of storms have developed along a front across
southeastern Kansas and far western Missouri early this evening.
These line segments will continue to track northeast across the
area this evening. Ceilings are bouncing around from LIFR to VFR
ahead of the storms at times. Gusty southerly winds are also
occurring ahead of the storms. A few lightning strikes and
scattered strong to severe winds will be possible within the line,
especially west of Highway 65. Visibilities will lower with the
line. Showers will linger behind the front for a few hours before
ending for the night. Winds will become more westerly behind the
front and will become gusty overnight into Sunday.

Ceilings will then lower again Sunday as the system tracks across
the area. Some scattered showers will be possible across the
eastern Ozarks Sunday afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise

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