Severe Thunderstorm Warning 355, NWS Springfield, MO

881 
WWUS53 KSGF 160030
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
730 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

MOC149-203-160038-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0355.000000T0000Z-191016T0030Z/
Shannon MO-Oregon MO-
730 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHANNON AND
NORTHEASTERN OREGON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 730 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3662 9121 3692 9166 3697 9166 3709 9159
      3699 9122 3683 9123 3682 9112 3680 9111
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 294DEG 23KT 3699 9158 

$$

Lindenberg

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
636 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

A cold front will make its way across the Ozarks through this
afternoon. Current observations place the cold front from just
north of Joplin to the Lake of the Ozarks and northeast to just
north of St. Louis. The front will move south east with showers
and thunderstorms expected to develop along and behind the front.

Instability ahead of the front was in the 800-1200j/kg range for
the most part through cloud cover was keeping instability in check.
The low level shear was rather limited however though there was
some good upper level jet support with a 115kt jet at 250mb over
the area. Southerly winds were brining in some low level moisture
but surface wind speeds of 10mph or less for the most part in
advance of the front will only bring in so much moisture. As a
result of the marginal ingredients in place ahead of the cold
front, SPC has areas south of I-44 in a Marginal Risk for
damaging winds up to 60mph and isolated hail to quarter size. Did
not see any reason to stray from this and have kept this for the
area this afternoon and evening.

The convection now occurring across northeastern Kansas appeared
to be occurring along the 850mb front. As this moves to the east
we may see rain fill in between the surface front and the current
850mb forced ongoing convection.

Temperatures will begin to fall post frontal as a rather cool
airmass moves in behind the front. Morning lows Wednesday will
fall into the upper 30s to around 40 degrees as skies clear. Cold
air advection will continue through the day with afternoon highs
only climbing into the middle 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 141 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

An upper level ridge will slide across the plains and over the
Ozarks for the later half of the week before sliding east of the
Ozarks by the weekend. This will allow for a warming trend with
highs in the 70s by Friday.

An upper level trough will then drag another front through the
area Friday night into Saturday morning. This will bring the next
chance for showers and isolated storms to the area.

Yet another, more potent, storm system and front then moves into
the area Sunday evening and brings additional showers and storms
to the area into Monday with another shot of cool air to start
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

VFR ceilings will be the rule beyond 00z for at least the SGF and
JLN terminals as skies gradually clear in wake of frontal passage.
Further south at the BBG terminal, MVFR ceilings could linger
until 03z before showers and thunderstorms push further eastward.
As high pressure settles in behind the front, skies will remain
clear into tomorrow.

Surface winds will be breezy this evening as 10-15 kt surface
winds come from the northwest. Then, as surface high pressure
continues to build in, surface winds will gradually diminish.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Albano

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
322 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-162030-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
322 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

A cold front will move through the area today. A few storms will
develop this aftenroon into this evening along the front, south
of I-44. The main risk will be cloud to ground lightning. A few
of the strongest storms may be capable of hail to the size of
quarters and 60 mph winds across southern Missouri.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Additional showers and storms will be possible this weekend into
early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later today or tonight for areas
south of Interstate 44.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Hatch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
257 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

MOZ066-067-152100-
Vernon MO-St. Clair MO-
257 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN VERNON AND
NORTHWESTERN ST. CLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 256 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rich Hill, moving east at 25 mph.

Pea to nickel size hail and wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Truman Lake...                    El Dorado Springs...
Appleton City...                  Lowry City...
Schell City...                    Harwood...
Tiffin...                         Johnson City...
Taberville...                     Monegaw Springs...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 104 and 106.

LAT...LON 3820 9355 3789 9401 3790 9407 3805 9446
      3805 9424 3802 9423 3805 9421 3804 9419
      3806 9413 3804 9411 3805 9410 3803 9406
      3821 9405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 287DEG 22KT 3810 9425

Lindenberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
522 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

MOZ080>082-091-092-152315-
Dallas MO-Wright MO-Laclede MO-Webster MO-Texas MO-
522 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WEBSTER...SOUTHEASTERN
DALLAS...WRIGHT...SOUTHERN LACLEDE AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES
UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 522 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Conway, or 11 miles northwest of Marshfield, moving
east at 40 mph.

Pea to nickel size hail and wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Marshfield...                     Morgan...
Conway...                         Dawson...
Hartville...                      Niangua...
Duncan...                         Phillipsburg...
Huggins...                        Twin Bridges...
Competition...                    Elkland...
Manes...                          Lynchburg...
Grovespring...                    Graff...
Olive...                          Rader...
Long Lane...                      Charity...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 100 and 121.

LAT...LON 3710 9232 3741 9308 3742 9308 3741 9310
      3743 9314 3768 9295 3743 9207
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 288DEG 35KT 3749 9300

Lindenberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
612 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

MOZ096-104-105-160015-
Douglas MO-Ozark MO-Taney MO-
612 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL OZARK...SOUTHWESTERN
DOUGLAS AND NORTHEASTERN TANEY COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 611 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles south of Ava, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Penny to nickel size hail and wind gusts of 30 to 45 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gainesville...                    Wasola...
Brixey...                         Noble...
Willhoit...                       Hardenville...
Thornfield...                     Rome...
Sycamore...                       Squires...
Dora...                           Rockbridge...
Zanoni...

LAT...LON 3672 9285 3688 9276 3678 9217 3650 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 295DEG 20KT 3677 9272

Lindenberg

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
643 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

MOZ097-098-106-160045-
Oregon MO-Howell MO-Shannon MO-
643 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHANNON...
NORTHEASTERN HOWELL AND NORTHEASTERN OREGON COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
CDT...

At 642 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Mountain View, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Penny to nickel size hail and wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be
possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain View...                  Winona...
Alton...                          Birch Tree...
Montier...                        Thomasville...
Teresita...                       Wilderness...
Greer...

LAT...LON 3694 9174 3705 9168 3705 9166 3710 9165
      3699 9122 3683 9123 3682 9112 3678 9111
      3670 9112 3653 9123
TIME...MOT...LOC 2342Z 294DEG 23KT 3699 9161

Lindenberg