Severe Thunderstorm Warning 301, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1239 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

Mother nature throwing a curve ball early this afternoon with a
MCS tracking just south of KC now into northern parts of the area.
High res models picked up on this to some extent, just not the
strength and longevity. However given that the MCS is now moving
southeast into a destabilized airmass, the line of storms will
likely continue into at least central Missouri. The farther
southwest you go into southwest Missouri, closer to SGF, the more
uncertain the complex will hold or strengthen given a stronger cap
in place with 700mb temps near 12C. Have issued a severe watch
through the afternoon, mainly for damaging winds. It is possible
that the southern portions of the watch get missed by this
activity.

The evolution of this early complex will have implications on
tonight's severe potential. It is possible that a boundary sets
up from this current activity, exactly where is uncertain. The true
frontal boundary associated with the upper level wave will
approach the area from the west this evening and tonight and will
kick off additional storms, however the severity is in question
mainly in locations that will be affected by afternoon storms. It
does appear that locations that dont get as affected by this
afternoon convection will remain unstable enough for strong to
severe storms tonight with damaging winds in excess of 70 mph,
large hail to the size of tennis balls and tornadoes possible. The
most intense storms, possibly in the form of supercells, will
occur mainly across far southeast Kansas and western Missouri,
with storms likely becoming more linear the further south and
east. This is still a very fluid situation and will need to
monitor the progress of this system this afternoon and its effects
on the thermodynamic environment as well as any left out
boundaries.

Therefore timing for the storms later tonight are a bit in
question however it still looks like storms this tonight will
affect southeast Kansas between 6-9pm and the I-44 corridor from
9pm-12am. Locations along the Missouri/Arkansas state line will
see the activity from 10pm-1am.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

Attention certainly on severe weather potential late this
afternoon into early tonight. Hot, humid conditions will lead to
substantial instability (ML CAPE of 2,000-4,000 J/kg) prior to
the arrival of a strong cold front from the NW late this
afternoon. Kinematics will also be quite supportive with deep
layer shear of 30-40 kts. Initially, discrete cells with potential
for supercells will lead to a risk large hail to the size of
tennis balls, damaging winds, and tornadoes mainly NW of a line
from Lamar to Osceola. As convective mode transitions to linear
segments, the threat will transition to generic large hail and
damaging winds in excess of 70mph with only an isolated, brief
tornado threat. Lowest severe threat is over S-central MO where
winds may gust to 60mph with the strongest storms. Although
convection will move through rather quickly, very heavy rainfall
is possible given intense convection with high PWATs near 2
inches. This may lead to isolated flash flooding.

As mentioned above, hot and humid conditions are expected today,
with highs in the mid to upper 80s and maximum heat indices of 90
to 100, highest over the west.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

A return to cooler than normal and drier conditions is expected
mid-week. More active weather returns late in the week through the
weekend as a frontal zone moves into the region and rounds of
shortwave energy move through.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

VFR conditions can be expected until, at least, mid-afternoon across
the area terminals. There is some uncertainty, however, regarding
a complex of thunderstorms currently across east-central KS.
These storms are quickly spreading into southwest Missouri early
this afternoon. The expectation is for these storms to bring mid-
level clouds into the JLN and SGF terminals shortly after 18z, but
for all precipitation to stay north and east of all terminals.

Surface winds will generally hold firmly from the south near 10
kts with gusts near 20 kts this afternoon.

The main forecasting concern comes between the 00-06z timeframe.
The current thought is for a cold front to race across southwest
Missouri, bringing heavy showers and thunderstorms, and thus,
lowering flight categories into the MVFR range. A few IFR/LIFR
ceiling may also be observed with the heaviest of storms.

Storms will progressively move eastward/southeastward overnight,
with the back edge of stratiform rain clearing all area terminals
by 12z. Also with frontal passage, expect winds to veer from the
south to the north between now and 12z.

Surface high pressure will build into the area Tuesday afternoon,
bringing forth an extended return to VFR ceilings.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Burchfield
SHORT TERM...Titus
LONG TERM...Titus
AVIATION...Albano

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1211 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-271715-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1211 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Significant thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

A thunderstorm complex just south of Kansas City will likely
continue moving southeast into portions of west central and
central Missouri through early this afternoon. Damaging winds in
excess of 70 mph will be the main risk with this activity. This
activity will generally affect locations along the Highway 54
corridor however it could come close to Interstate 44 by
afternoon.

Additional strong to severe storms will develop later this
evening as a strong cold front will move from northwest to
southeast through the area. Large hail to the size of tennis
balls, damaging winds in excess of 70 mph, and tornadoes are
possible. The greatest risk for tornadoes and large hail will be
northwest of a line from Lamar to Osceola. Expected timing for
this additional round of severe thunderstorms is between 6pm this
evening and 1am tonight. Although storms will move through
quickly, very heavy rainfall rates are possible that may lead to
localized flash flooding.

Heat index values will approach 100 degrees over western Missouri
and southeast Kansas this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase by late week and the
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed in the next six hours for
locations along and north of Highway 54, and across the entire
area tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield