Severe Thunderstorm Warning 276, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1142 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

...06Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Our forecast remains rain-free so far this afternoon, with
scattered storms developing just south of the Missouri border over
northwest Arkansas. To the north, we continue to watch a larger
area of convection around Kansas City and an outflow boundary over
northern and east central Kansas.

The airmass just to the south of the outflow boundary is very
unstable with MUCAPEs over 4000 j/kg. SPC increased the northwest
portion of the forecast area to a slight risk as severe storms are
expected to develop during the late afternoon and move
southeastward into southeast KS and west central MO. Forecast
soundings also show some decent helicity developing with the help
of a low level jet and southeastward bulk shear vectors. It looks
like we'll have a small window for supercell potential from around
10 PM to 1 AM when instability and adequate shear coincide over
eastern KS and extreme west central MO. Main threat will be hail
and damaging straight line winds with a near zero but non zero
tornado threat.

Storms should gradually weaken during the early morning and leave
another outflow boundary near the I-44 corridor. Another round of
storms will likely develop along and north of the boundary during
the afternoon with central MO having the greater chances for
storms through Friday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 319 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

The upper level westerlies remain over the region through the
weekend with a shift from northwest to due west flow. In response
a lee side trough will develop over eastern Colorado and push
eastward as it interacts with an upper level disturbance. These
features will move across the region Saturday night and Sunday,
bringing another round of storms to the region.

Mainly hotter and dry conditions are expected early next week as an
upper level ridge builds back over the Plains and and Midwest.
By Wednesday and Thursday, precipitation chances should creep back
up as the upper ridge shifts further to the west and puts our area
back in northwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

Showers and thunderstorms will approach the area from the
northwest overnight however some uncertainty exists as to how far
south they will go therefore have gone with VCTS for SGF and JLN
for now closer to 09z. Otherwise expect VFR conditions at the
sites with southerly winds. Low level wind shear is possible
overnight however too marginal to include into the tafs.
Additional showers and storms may affect the area again towards
the very end of the taf period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Burchfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1127 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-170430-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1127 PM CDT Thu Aug 15 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will move into
the area from the northwest overnight into the early morning hours
Friday. The most intense storms could produce large hail to the
size of ping pong balls, damaging winds up to 70 mph and frequent
cloud to ground lightning. An isolated tornado is possible across
southeast Kansas and far western Missouri however the threat is
low. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding will be possible
in locations that see repeated storms.

In general, locations along and north of Interstate 44 have the
highest chance of seeing these storms overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible Friday afternoon
and Friday night. Severe thunderstorms with large hail and
damaging winds will be possible along and north of Interstate 44,
especially during the evening and overnight hours. Frequent cloud
to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall will also be
possible. Locations across central Missouri may see a flooding
threat develop if repeated rounds of rainfall occur.

Scattered thunderstorm chances will continue through the weekend.

Heat index values will reach up the mid 90s to near 100 from the
weekend into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed in the next three hours for
 locations along and north of Highway 54 and in the next six hours
 closer to the Interstate 44 corridor.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield