Severe Thunderstorm Warning 256, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
556 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

Another hot and humid day is in store for southeast Kansas and the
Missouri Ozarks, with temperatures topping off in the 90s and heat
index values 102 to 106 degrees with the warmest readings over
southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. After collaboration with
neighboring offices, have went ahead and expanded the heat
advisory across the entire area.

A shortwave trough will translate through the Upper Mississippi
River Valley and Great lakes, dragging a cold front into Missouri
by afternoon. In addition, outflow from ongoing convection over
the Plains along with the front will aid in the development of
scattered thunderstorms as they interact with a moist and unstable
atmosphere. Effective shear values are not all that impressive
only 20 to 25 knots, but steep low level lapse rates and within a
moist environment will likely result in the potential for
damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail to the size of
quarters.

This convection will wane during the evening hours as the front
pushes south, with some drier dew points advecting in after
midnight. Lows tonight will range from around 70 along the Arkansas
border, to the middle 60s across central Missouri.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

A couple of quiet and less humid days are expected Thursday and
Friday. Temperatures will drop back a few degrees with high in the
middle and upper 80s, but dew points will drop back into the 60s,
and even some upper 50s at times, so temperatures will drop off into
the lower 60s for overnight lows.

Ridging then builds back across the region for the weekend, with an
increase in heat and humidity levels. Afternoon highs will top off
in the low to mid 90s both days. Although dry weather is expected
for the most part, the additional moisture may result in some
afternoon/evening pop up storms, but this will become more of a near
term forecast concern. A similar scenario also plays out for Monday
and Tuesday. However, will be keeping an eye on a tropical system
that looks to push northward out of the Gulf of Mexico. This may
bring additional moisture northward into the region for a better
chance for showers and storms, especially Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 556 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

A cold front along with outflow from storms over northern Kansas
this morning will combine with the unstable airmass to produce
showers and thunderstorms today. Development could begin as soon
as late morning. The biggest questions remain on how they will
affect the terminals. Have covered now with a prob30 this
afternoon, however later forecast and updates may have a better
handle on timing. This activity will exit the region early this
evening with quiet weather after that. Overall, VFR flight
conditions are expected. The only exception will be within storms
where localized IFR and MVFR ceilings and visibilities are
likely.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Raberding
LONG TERM...Raberding
AVIATION...Raberding

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Springfield MO
734 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-111245-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
734 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive heat risk.

DISCUSSION...

  Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop starting late
  this morning and continuing through early evening. The strongest
  storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts of
  60 to 70 mph and quarter size hail. Heavy downpours of rain are
  also possible.

  Afternoon heat index values will be near 105 degrees across the
  area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

  Heat index values are expected to reach the mid 90s to around
  100 degrees again by this weekend.

  Thunderstorms will be possible next Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation may be needed from late morning through
  early evening.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Schaumann

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