Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
216 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Two areas of showers and thunderstorms continue to move across
the region this morning. First, an area of activity across the
eastern half of the CWA continues to push off towards the east
posing no hazardous threats. The second area of interest through
the early morning hours is associated with a convergent boundary
across southeastern Kansas. This boundary in conjunction with
moist advection from the Southern Plains poses a short term flash
flooding threat as storms continue to train into far southeastern
Kansas and west central Missouri. There is a strong focus on
potential flash flooding in this area as rainfall over the past
week has resulted in highly saturated soil. This threat will
continue to be monitored through the early morning hours.

As overnight activity comes to end by mid morning, a rather strong
shortwave begins to translate across the Central Plains into the
Middle Mississippi Valley. This shortwave energy will result in a
surface low tracking across the Interstate 70 corridor through the
early afternoon hours. The current trends of CAM models suggest
storms will fire along a cold front boundary by the mid afternoon
hours. At this time, the environmental setup looks favorable for
several scattered strong to severe storms with the greatest risk
along and southeast of Interstate 44. A key factor in the
environmental setup will be daytime heating allowing an unstable
atmosphere to develop across the region as temperatures climb into
the upper 70s to lower 80s across the Ozarks. Current models
suggest MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg and low-level moisture
will advance out ahead of the frontal boundary. Additionally,
adequate shear ranging from 30-35 knots supports organized updraft
development. Given this setup, thunderstorm development will be
multicellular in nature posing a wind and hail risk. The threat
for these scattered strong to severe storms will exist from early
afternoon across the western CWA through the early evening hours
across the eastern half of the CWA. Lastly, it should be noted
that there is marginal risk for excessive rainfall with these
storms given the efficiency to produce heavy downpours, especially
in areas that have already seen sufficient rainfall this week.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Looking ahead to Thursday, rising heights and a building ridge to
our east will result in drier and warmer weather. By Friday into
Saturday high temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to lower
90s across the Ozarks. In addition to the warmer temperatures,
dewpoints climbing into the lower 70s will be a prime recipe for
sticky weather across the Ozarks with heat indicies pushing into
the upper 90s. As we settle into a southwest flow pattern by
Saturday, a few lobes of vorticity will translate through the
central CONUS bringing a chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms late Saturday into Sunday, and once again on Monday.
Model continue to differ on exact solutions, thus vary on timing
and location of potential rainfall into early next week.

As the large scale trough transitions across the central CONUS
early next week there may be additional concerns for flooding
potential, but need to be evaluated further in future forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms continues to move
through the region this evening and overnight tonight. Expect the
potential for thunderstorms at KBBG during the early part of the
TAF period. This chance for scattered thunderstorms increases
during the 08Z-12Z timeframe for all other TAF sites. Looking
ahead, winds will change from southerly overnight to westerly.
Wind gusts up 20 knots can be expected at KBBG and KSGF during the
afternoon hours. Overall, VFR conditions will prevail through the
morning hours into the afternoon will a few instances of lower
visibilities and flight conditions within any showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Perez

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
834 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-200145-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
834 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

  A line of thunderstorms is currently moving across extreme
  southeastern Kansas this evening. This activity will continue
  to track east through the rest of the evening hours as it
  weakens. Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be the main risk with
  these storms west of Highway 65 this evening. Small hail may be
  possible with the strongest storms, mainly west of I-49.
  Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

  Thunderstorms...some possibly severe...will be possible again
  on Wednesday. Large hail and wind gusts to 60 mph along with
  potentially heavy downpours will be the primary threat. These
  storms are most likely over the eastern Ozarks.

  Heat index values on Friday may approach the 100 to 105 degree
  range. Additional showers and storms will again return to the
  area by next weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1033 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

MOZ090-091-190415-
Greene MO-Webster MO-
1033 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WEBSTER AND
SOUTHEASTERN GREENE COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1032 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Springfield, moving east at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Eastern Springfield...            Rogersville...
Turners...

LAT...LON 3709 9300 3711 9322 3723 9322 3723 9295
      3709 9296 3709 9297 3708 9299
TIME...MOT...LOC 0332Z 275DEG 15KT 3714 9320

Wise

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1231 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

MOZ105-190630-
Ozark MO-
1231 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2019

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OZARK COUNTY UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

At 1231 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Price Place, or 19 miles north of Bull Shoals,
moving east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bull Shoals Lake...               Norfork Lake...
Gainesville...                    Bakersfield...
Theodosia...                      Sundown...
Willhoit...                       Tecumseh...
Udall...                          Hardenville...
Thornfield...                     Long Run...
Isabella...                       Zanoni...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3656 9277 3668 9277 3674 9275 3666 9212
      3661 9212 3650 9215 3650 9253
TIME...MOT...LOC 0531Z 283DEG 21KT 3664 9269

Terry

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